More Gratitude on Parade
Article in The Telegraph about a Canadian woman who is suing her (British, now residing in Switzerland) employer for making comments about her "full" figure, inspiring self-loathing that she claims led to an eating disorder. She also accuses the man of having put out a hit on her.
I'm not saying that it's all right for an employer to make comments about an employee's figure, but the article also mentions that in the course of four years he increased her salary from 50k Pounds to 550k Pounds, which seems rather generous to me. You'd think that at that rate she might have been able to purchase herself a little self respect.
First Amsterdam style “coffee house” opens in US.
Dude! Don't Bogart That Joint! (Click to Enlarge)
For those who had a difficult time following the life expectancy discussion, I suggest that you may wish to open your mind first with an esspresso and a buzz hit!
The United States' first marijuana cafe opened on Friday, posing an early test of the Obama administration's move to relax policing of medical use of the drug.
The cafe -- in a two-story building which formerly housed a speak-easy and adult erotic club Rumpspankers -- is technically a private club, but is open to any Oregon residents who are NORML members and hold an official medical marijuana card.
Members pay $25 per month to use the 100-person capacity cafe. They don't buy marijuana, but get it free over the counter from "budtenders". Open 10 a.m. to 10 p.m., it serves food but has no liquor license.
Pot cafes, known as "coffee shops", are popular in the Dutch city of Amsterdam, where possession of small amounts of marijuana is legal. Portland's Cannabis Cafe is the first of its kind to open in the United States, according to NORML.
Hmmmmmm. Me personally? Although I'm a big advocate of buying American products, I still would prefer Amsterdam. I mean, if I'm gonna get all toked up, I'd prefer to do so in a city full of lovely tulips, several internationally famous premium breweries and their outlets, and some lovely, world class, art museaums. Also, for me at least, it would be much cheaper to fly to Amsterdam any day of the week than Portland. And, you know, the Moroccan Hashish is fresher...
Is it another sop to his far left base who have called for decriminalization for years, as well as railed against the "unfairness" if higher minority incarceration statistics that they say are mostly driven by "frivolous" drug laws? Whatever, Dude...; pass the dutchie from the left hand side...
Or better yet, let's all sing along with Peter Tosh; "Legalize it!, don't criticize it..."
Life Expectancy 101
So, what's the advantage of having an actuary around if they won't do some actuarying for you?
There are all sorts of flavors of actuary, and my specialty is annuities [don't ask me about auto or home insurance - that's not my racket]. So one of the big things we have to learn about are survival probabilities and life expectancies. Life expectancy is a number that's been thrown around a lot in the health care/health insurance debate [We suck! The U.S. life expectancy is lower than other nations!], Social Security debate, public pensions debate, demographics discussion in general.
If you recall, the issue of John McCain's life expectancy came up during last year's elections, and I wrote about it on my own blog, coming up with a survival probability for McCain through one term: 80 - 87.7%; two terms: 60.5-74.5%. [To see actuaries discussing this in our own forum, check out this link.]
So I'm going to start at the beginning, keeping in mind that I'm simplifying the calculations greatly so as to focus on the important features. In this post, I'm just going to go over some basic life expectancy stuff.
Life expectancy is the expected value of lifetime left [duh], but this does not mean the age you're most likely to die at, and it doesn't need to be calculated from birth. You calculate this by multiplying the probability of having a specific lifetime left times the amount of that lifetime, then add those all up - that's your life expectancy, a weighted average.
To do a real simple model, let's say you can die either at ages 40, 60, 80. Let's look at life expectancies for different mortality patterns.
|
Lifetime Probabilities |
|||
|
Age |
Group A |
Group B |
Group C |
|
40 |
1/3 |
1/2 |
0 |
|
60 |
1/3 |
0 |
1 |
|
80 |
1/3 |
1/2 |
0 |
|
Life expectancy |
60 |
60 |
60 |
You'll notice they all have the same life expectancies - 60 = 1/3 * 40 + 1/3 *60 + Â 1/3 *80 = 1/2Â * 40 + 1/2Â * 80 = 1 *Â 60. But very different mortality patterns. As with most statistics, a single number is misleading -- if you knew the standard deviation of the lifetimes, then you would know everyone dies at the same age for group C, and that group B is the most spread out.
Thing is, if you're looking at life expectancies for public policy, looking at life expectancy from birth can be misleading. Actuaries can calculate life expectancy from any age, and of course the average age at death will be going up a little for each higher age that's calculated... as all the people who made it to age 40 obviously didn't die at age 20 [except in the actuarial zombie flick I'm thinking of calling "Night of the Living Death Benefits", but that's still in spec].
So what if we wanted to know the life expectancy of a 50-year-olds in each of these groups? I can readjust the probabilities [and change the lifetimes - life expectancy is usually termed in age at death in the media, but it's really how many more years til death from whatever age]. You readjust the probabilities by taking only the possibles [living to age 60 or 80, which is extra lifetimes of 10 or 30], so you'll need to divide by the probability you survive to age 50 [which differs in each of these cases].
The results:
|
Lifetime Probabilities from Age 50 |
|||
|
Time til death |
Group A |
Group B |
Group C |
|
10 |
1/2 |
0 |
1 |
|
30 |
1/2 |
1 |
0 |
|
Life expectancy |
20 |
30 |
10 |
|
Expected age at death |
70 |
80 |
60 |
So the different patterns become more clear once you look at life expectancy from a higher age.
This is some basic math setting up for my next few posts that look at the impact of having certain demographics in a population and how that will affect overall calculated life expectancy, cancer survivorship, Social Security and life expectancy, pensions, etc.
Surprise! UN finally realizes admits that Iran might have more nuke sites.
I've been saying for a long time, following the most recent revelation of a secret Iranian enrichment facility at Qum, that the Iranians had to have at least one more secret nuclear facility; that being a uraniam conversion site to clandestinely supply the now not-so-secret enrichment facility at Qum. But from the Dangerroom at Wired comes the news that the IAEA has finally admitted that the current regime in Iran has a "credibility problem":
According to the Iranians, funds were allocated to launch the project in the second half of 2007 — but the Islamic Republic did not notify the agency about the facility’s existence until September 2009. That delayed declaration, the IAEA politely noted, “reduces the level of confidence in the absence of other nuclear facilities under construction and gives rise to questions about whether there were any other nuclear facilities not declared to the agency,†the report said.
In other words, a pattern of secrecy persists when it comes to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. And unless Tehran shifts gears, “the Agency will not be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.â€
Well no foolin' Sherlock effin' Holmes! That's only what reasonable people have been saying for a long time. And so it seems, that regardless of Obama's charismatic majesterium and divine countenance, the same tired ultimatum we've issued, oh say a zillion times before, is working about as well as it always has. Must be more of that Change! we can believe in...
Indeed, based on the self-evident muscularity pusillanimity of the President's foreign policy, Ahmadi-Nejad has responded as any schoolyard Napolean-complex bully would when faced with a larger, but cowardly, opponent; he's declared that we better not tell him to stop again, or he'll simply redouble his efforts!
Ah yes, that Smart Power!, yielding dividends again...
Let's hope that work is moving right along on the new modified-for-B-2-use MOP.
(H/T AllahPundit at Hot Air)
D’Oprah
I wouldn't watch it on TV, even if I had the signal, because I wouldn't want to give Orcah the ratings boost, but I'm following some of the Twitter comments about her chat with Palin, and I guess that I'm going to have to watch some of the videos after it's all posted so that I can help shape the B-Cast analysis of the show.
Another reason that I really don't want to get into this is that Oprah's the person who gave this jackass James Arthur Ray his big break into the "mainstream." I haven't seen anyone putting Orcah on the defensive, asking her about the self-actuating harmoniousness that she seems to have known intuitively as a special revelatory birthright. I don't have any particular reason to hate her, though I think she is an intellectually lazy dolt and second-hand seller of spiritual snake oil.
So, I guess I'm going to have to yark some of this stuff up during the course of this week, because it is giving me a belly ache.
Flash: majority think KSM should be tried by military tribunal.
In the first poll taken since AG Holder's announcement that KSM and 4 other Guantanamo bay terrorists will be tried in a NY City Federal court, Real Clear Politics reports that by nearly a 2 to 1 margin repondents thought that the suspects should be tried before a military tribunal as opposed to civilian court. It's impossible to glean political affiliation from the cross tabs, but the overwhelming disagreement with the administrations position doesn't bode well for the public's perception of any show-trial circus drama that may come out of the trial. Now the only question is, did Obama sufficiently immunize himself from any political fallout of the announcement by his overseas absence when it was announced? Or will the public rightly realize that the buck stops in the Oval office?
Given this initial reaction, it's hard to see how that will be the case; unless, of course, AG Holder is next in line at the bus stop...
The Bishops’ Appeal Repeal
I'm sure that Nice Deb won't mind my stealing her entire post:
Next Sunday Catholic churches all across the country will be passing the baskets for the Bishop’s Annual Appeal. You may want to consider not giving, this year.
Richard A. Viguerie, a founder of the modern conservative movement and an active member of a Catholic parish in the Arlington, Virginia diocese, is sending word to Catholics throughout America, to inform them of the nature of organizations supported by the leftwing Catholic Campaign for Human Development. Until the problems are corrected, I see no reason to support this drive.
Catholics are led to believe that their contributions to CCHD are used to help the poor – funding soup kitchens, homeless shelters, and other worthwhile projects that provide aid to the least fortunate among us.
In fact, it appears almost none of the money goes to the poor.
Rather, it goes to organizations that engage in “community organizing†to promote a political agenda that many Catholics would find abhorrent, if only they knew. CCHD’s stated goal is “breaking the cycle of poverty,†but CCHD-funding organizations support policies that make it next to impossible for the poor to escape their circumstances.
It’s time for America’s Catholics to rise up, let their voices be heard, and take the ACTION STEPS listed below.
ACORN (the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now) received some $7.3 million from the CCHD in 1998-2008, and even more in earlier years. ACORN’s direct funding from CCHD was cut off in 2008, but only because of an eight-year-old embezzlement scandal that made it impossible to get a proper accounting of the money.
It appears that the Bishops’ problem was with ACORN’s poor “accounting†practices, rather than with the goals and tactics of a group that blurs the distinction between a radical political organization and a Mafia-style racket.
ACORN is currently under investigation or indictment in 20 states for voter fraud.
But ACORN is only one of many problematic organizations that has been supported by CCHD:
According to Matthew Vadum of the Capital Research Center, CCHD money has funded the Industrial Areas Foundation (described by its founder as a “school for professional radicalsâ€), the Midwest Academy (which trains in left-wing confrontation and intimidation), and other related organizations such as the Direct Action and Research Training Institute, People Improving Communities through Organizing (PICO), and the Gamaliel Foundation.
The network of organizations funded by CCHD is rooted not in the principles of Jesus Christ, who eschewed politics, but in the teachings of a Marxist and atheist, Saul Alinsky.
The Gamaliel Foundation, the Midwest Academy, and PICO have earned themselves profiles at David Horowitz’s guide to the political left, Discover the Networks.
You can read Viguerie’s complete media advisory, here.
Steps you can take:
It’s time to STOP THE BISHOPS FROM FUNDING ACORN-TYPE GROUPS.
Here are the ACTION STEPS you can take to stop them:
1. REFUSE to give a single cent to the bishops’ November appeal.
2. FORWARD THIS E-MAIL to friends, family members, co-workers, and all Catholics you know. (Even friends who aren’t Catholic can help by forwarding this message to their Catholic friends.)
3. SIGN OUR PETITION at http://conservativehq.com/petitions/
This petition that will be sent to the American cardinals and all other members of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops.4. COMMUNICATE WITH YOUR PASTOR and/or BISHOP (through a letter, e-mail, phone call, or personal visit) and tell him that you will not contribute to any cause that’s promoted in the names of the bishops until they STOP USING CONTRIBUTIONS TO FUND LEFT-WING POLITICS.
Naked-Guy Furniture Video with Heterosexual Ending
From Boing-Boing via Sarah W at Twitter:
Valley Lodge "All of My Loving" from Valley Lodge on Vimeo.
Hasan’s Spiritual Mentor
Today the WaPo has an interview with the once-American spiritual mentor to Hasan, al-Awlaki (screw it, I'm sticking with my former spelling) in which he claims in effect that he didn't incite the violence. There's a lot about what he wrote on his website while he was in communication with Hasan. His self-defense is about what you might expect.
More interesting, perhaps, is the reaction of another preacher on the subject. We are told:
Sheik Salman al-Awdah, a Saudi religious leader, gave an interview last week calling the massacre at Fort Hood "unjustified," "irrational" and "inadvisable" because it will cause a backlash against Muslims in America and Europe.
Unjustified is good. Irrational is good. But unadvisable "because it will cause a backlash against Muslims in America and Europe"? All questions of right and wrong seem to circle back to this issue, and that is, quite frankly, a sickening failure of compassion for humanity in general.
Speaking of tribal-ism:
(via Enoch)
And, you know . . . let the Catholics hang. They're Satanists, after all. It won't affect me.
Yet more, court-enforced, tribalism.
I Hate that F**king Fig Tree
Warning - More Theological Stuff Below.
While we have been on the subject of intolerance as it relates to religion, I thought I may as well beat the dead horse oto death completely - and then kick it in the jaw for good measure.
Dan's post about the vitriolic bigotry spewed by the hateful commentariat (any time and every time an article is written about the Pontiff, the Catholic Church, or anything relating to the Church) and the posts of a particular "Jeremy" (a self-proclaimed Born Again) made me think about one particular aspect that bothers me about Protestant Christians who rip on the Church.
Here is what kept crossing (so to speak) my mind:
The Catholic Church was the only game in town for the first 1000 years after the time of the Christ. Then we had the Great Schism. But in Europe Proper, She (the Church) was the singular Christian Tabernacle for 1500 years - until a certain Martin Luther instigated the Protestant Rebellion Reformation. And then of course we had Henry VIII who at first suppressed and then served as catalyst for the split from Rome - giving birth to the C of E.
Given that the main of American Christians can trace their origins to Europe Proper, I will confine this post to the Protestant Reformation.
I'll be honest: when I see/hear/sense bigotry toward the Church, I am quite literally offended. Here is why: Which Church is it, specifically, that promulgated the Christian Faith through those first 1500 years? To which Church, specifically, belonged the thousands upon thousands of Martyrs that quite literally gave their lives for the Faith? Which Church, specifically, is responsible for defending Christendom from the aggressions of the Moors? How many Christian women, children, and other defenseless believers were spared? Maybe most importantly, which Church, specifically, preserved the Word, published the Word, spread the Word, promoted the Word, defended the Word, and re-introduced the Word to Europe Proper after the fall of the Roman Empire? From which Church, specifically, came the most brilliant of the Theologians? To which Church did, say, St. Paul belong? St. Peter? St. Catherine of Sienna? St. Thomas Aquinas? I will not even go into the Gifts the Church and Her members have bestowed to all of Mankind (for free) with regard to Feminism, Science, Literature, Education, Medicine, the Arts, etc, etc. I will ignore all of that...
But I do want to ask all that bash the Church who call themselves Christians, "Do you owe nothing to Her? Do you think the Faith was buried in a time capsule from the time of Christ's Crucifixion until Luther dug it up in the 1500s?"
And finally, I would ask, "Why are you so spiteful of those who transmitted the Good News throughout the ages so that you, today, could come to 'hear and believe'? Many have sacrificed for you to bring the message to you. And yet you spit and beat them with the reed. Why?"
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