November 22, 2010; a day that will live in infamy
At least from an economic point of view. Because today the Federal Reserve will officially become the largest holder of U.S. Treasury debt in the world, followed closely by the Chinese and Japanese respectively; thanks to Mr. Bernanke's QE2 policy. Now, Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge calls it the beginning of the Ponzi end; which may be just a bit hyperbolic. Still, it does kinda seem like paying your mortgage payment with a maxxed out credit card.
There's a link to a very informative paper on inflation, published by the Von Mises institute, in the ZeroHedge post. And stay tuned to POWIP for some upcoming installments/discussions of what quantitative easing is, and differing viewpoints of the effects it will have on our economy.
You know, kind of like a balance to all the joyful moments you'll be sharing with your family over the next few days :)
Is a resumption of the Korean War on the Thanksgiving Day menu?
Regrettably, it may be, if yesterday’s artillery exchange, and the escalating rhetoric, is any indication.
Tensions between the two nations have been high as of late for what analysts say are manifold reasons. Some South Korean sources believe that the aggressions are a contrivance to promote national, and more important perhaps top military brass, solidarity behind Kim Jong-Un, the youngest son of Kim Jong-Il; to “blood” the new ruler so to speak. Other western analysts see the most recent action as a perverse sort of “signal” to the US that it needs to resume the 6 party peace talks that were suspended two years ago; a possibility that was categorically ruled out again, at least in the short term, on Saturday following the revelation by North Korea of a new uranium enrichment facility. Or it may just be Kim Jong-il continuing to test Obama's "mettle" in the wake of the administration's weak responses to both the sinking of the Cheonan and last year's missile tests by the regime. But whatever the underlying motivation, it’s hard to see how today’s exchange can do anything but fuel the anger and resentment of the South Korean people, especially after last spring’s sinking of the South’s Corvette, which resulted in 46 deaths, an action for which the North still denies any responsibility.
Tuesday’s artillery exchange, perhaps the most serious cross-border incident since the Korean war, took place on, and in the vicinity of, the island of Yeonpyeong, approximately 75 miles west of Seoul, near the disputed Yellow Sea border with the North: the same area where the Cheonan was sunk in March. Now, artillery exchanges have taken place many times before, in the region of the De-Militarized Zone, but what is different this time is that civilians were involved. In addition to reports of the destruction, or damage, of 70 houses, at this time the reported casualties are 2 Marine killed, 16 Marines injured, and 3 civilians injured.
As is generally the case, the North maintains that the South Koreans provoked the fire by conducting military exercises in the region; the South has admitted that such exercises were underway off the west coast of the Korean peninsula, but state that they crossed no borders and none of their fire was directed towards the north. North Korea initiated the action by firing what is believed to be 200 artillery rounds at a military base located on the island, some shells striking the adjacent town. South Korean forces responded via 80 rounds of return fire, which I assume was counter-battery in nature, at the offending North Korean artillery units---although this is not specified in any of the reports. They have also sent some F-16’s to the area, and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has warned that he will order “stern retaliation” to any further provocation from the North, going so far as to openly threaten to strike a missile base located near the offending coastal artillery locations.
The U.S., EU, UK, Russia, and Japan have condemned the North Korean attack, calling it a belligerent action. North Korea's principal ally, the Chinese, has refused to do so stressing instead that both sides must do more to contribute to peace. Which, you know, is not an entirely shocking development from the nuclear-equipped rogue regime's chief enabler.
This is one of those events that can't be planned for by any administration; let's hope and pray that Mr. Obama's team is up to the task. Being a hawk, it's no surprise that I think it's way past time to get tough with North Korea; but that may only be a path to more bloodshed. So instead, let's pray for God's guidance for all those involved. Also, let's pray for the Korean people on both sides of the DMZ, and that their governments see the error of their ways, where applicable, and arrive instead at a peaceful resolution to their dispute.
All About Debt
You can't take it with you.... and that includes debt. The "latest trend" is retirees racking up debt. Good news: the debt can't be passed on to the next generation. Bad news: it certainly can be passed to the estate -- forget about an inheritance.
Now the beauty is that in the governmental world, there has been attempts to put that debt on the next generation. Ha, ha, SIKE! Who were the idiots who thought they'd be made whole on this debt? Anyway, I've got a rundown of all sort of governmental debt issues.
What happens when a state goes bankrupt. Go to the link for the short story. Long story: not quite sure, because there's no official, orderly method for state bankruptcies, unlike municipal bankruptcies.
What's up with these Build America Bonds? Steve Malanga of the Manhattan Institute gives you the skinny. And there's definitely a public pension link. Whee!
California
Overview from Prof. Hanson - he seems a smart guy. Why is he staying in California then? [Though this pot ought not be calling that kettle black. I'm in New York. My excuse: I got a deal on a sweet house with an observatory. AN OBSERVATORY! Can't get that everywhere.]
California bond woe bodes ill for states. That's not the only group it bodes ill for.
Back to the future with Jerry Brown - unlikely that fiscal sanity ahead in the near future. Fiscal crash? A distinct possibility. Yes, pensions are involved.
Illinois
Illinois debt default insurance increases to record cost -- Proof that Quinn is an idiot compared to Daley. Just like any Ponzi, the smart operators are the ones who get out before the decline. Once the Ponzi starts to contracts and cash out, that's when the cliff is fast approaching. I wouldn't want to be holding Illinois bonds, whether state or muni. More on same.
Chicago debt rating lowered - yes, pensions are involved.
Going back to Steven Malanga's piece and the connection of BABs and Illinois, along with an earlier piece on Illinois's debt rating.
Michigan -- A Michigan city rattles its cup at charities, in an about-face. I work in NYC, near Wall Street, and I run into panhandlers all the time. I never give them money (neither do I give it to buskers) - I don't want to encourage them. I recommend the charities tell the city to go screw. Also, I wonder if giving this money out in contraindications to their stated charitable aims actually undermines their tax-exempt status. Any tax lawyers in the house?
What's up in Europe?
Europe welcomes Irish bailout request. Oh, I bet they do. They've been wanting to force the tax rates higher in Ireland so as to reduce the attractiveness of the Irish market compared to other euro-zone countries. Looks like the bailout proposed is smaller than that for Greece. Hmmm. And Ireland actually tried some cuts before going begging, unlike Greece (which didn't make cuts until =after= getting the bailout.)
Muni bond market
Muni-holders, get ready to suck it up [subscription link for WSJ]. Any municipal bond bailout would have to originate in the House. Not happening in the lame duck session, so it's put off for when the new class of Repubs are in there. Do you see this happening? I don't.
More on the muni market weakness.
"Happy" stuff--Pajamas media attempts their own fiscal reform push. Good luck with that guys. And did I need to mention it? Yes, pensions and Social Security are involved.
Their official website for the National Economic Rescue Initiative.
This is by no means exhaustive [even if we're exhausted]. Share your own links of govt debt stories.... and check your portfolios for muni bonds. There may be a rough ride ahead for you...
The Goracle of gaia; ethanol ain’t gettin’ it
So what is Saint Al sayin' exactly, that he was for it before he was against it ?
Former U.S. vice-president Al Gore said support for corn-based ethanol in the United States was "not a good policy", weeks before tax credits are up for renewal.
Total U.S. ethanol subsidies reached $7.7 billion last year according to the International Energy Industry, which said biofuels worldwide received more subsidies than any other form of renewable energy.
"It is not a good policy to have these massive subsidies for (U.S.) first generation ethanol," said Gore, speaking at a green energy business conference in Athens sponsored by Marfin Popular Bank.
"First generation ethanol I think was a mistake. The energy conversion ratios are at best very small.
Which, you know, has been what critics have been saying all along. Why then, OH WHY!, was Alphonse de gaia behind the use of corn-based ethanol in the first place, considering said corn could have been going to starvin' chillrenz instead?
"One of the reasons I made that mistake is that I paid particular attention to the farmers in my home state of Tennessee, and I had a certain fondness for the farmers in the state of Iowa because I was about to run for president."
U.S. ethanol is made by extracting sugar from corn, an energy-intensive process. The U.S. ethanol industry will consume about 41 percent of the U.S. corn crop this year, or 15 percent of the global corn crop, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
Ah...I see said the blind man. Democrat Al Gore, perennial champion of the little guy, and defender of redistribution, was content to make the price of corn, and livestock derived food products that use corn for animal feeds, greatly increase simply for his electoral benefit. Got it; means to an end and all. That's what I always liked about Al, his integrity...
And why now has he decided it's time to stop backing such a flawed endeavor? Because scientists have successfully found ways to use enzymes, algae, and sugar beets in a far less energy intensive process? Maybe...But then again, remember the integrity of the Goracle . It seems that he has used the considerable monetary proceeds he's reaped as one of the ring-leaders of the AGW connivance to buy into companies that are planning similar endeavors. So, ethanol out, and whatever Diamond Al's company is selling-in...
I can't wait to see Obama's EPA order it be made so, all by executive fiat, natch. And if there be any objections, I'm certain, it will be just another case where THE SCIENCE IS SETTLED!
Notre Dame Football in Trouble?
You know, people will argue over whether the sharp decline in alumni donations to Notre Dame is because of the now nominally Catholic university's invitation to Barack "The Aborter" Obama, or because of the recession/depression, or because the football team is just not very good. It's the sort of thing that could easily be settled by some polling, of course, but that wouldn't give ND any cover, because I think it's got a lot to do with the first possibility; and who would want to answer that question anyway, when it wouldn't allow for speculation to run rampant to the benefit of a bunch of pundits?
Obviously, ND supporters prefer having a good football team, but it's been awhile since there was one that could shake down the thunder with any regularity. It's not the first time ND's gone through the doldrums. In the past, though, alumni could at least say, hey, it's not as though we recruit the same kind of player that Miami or any of those other loosey-goosey programs do. We make them actually take classes, perform their own academic work, and graduate, and we don't accept wannabe gangstas or assholes.
Now, unfortunately, they may be experiencing the worst of both worlds. A young woman by the name of Elizabeth "Lizzy" Seeberg, 19, of St. Mary's College across the way, has apparently suicided on prescription medication in the wake of an alleged sexual assault by an ND player, who hasn't been charged yet, but has been suiting up since that tragedy on September 10. There have been other recent troubles, as well:
It's all about image. Regardless of [Coach] Kelly's culpability, these ''university matters'' start to add up -- the players arrested for underage drinking in the summer, the death of Declan Sullivan and now allegations of sexual assault.
Chicago has always had a strange media relation with Notre Dame. Despite ND's distance, it is considered somehow part of what the newspapers like to call "Chicagoland." There's a lot of admiration there, and a lot of hostility, too.
Still, Notre Dame is supposed to be the Caesar's wife of top-flight college football. It would be nice if the entire institution rediscovered its moral compass, but they're too busy trying to be one of the popular girls in academia for that. Too bad.
Poor kid. I hope she gets home all right. Please pray for her and her family.
More Empty Speculation on Obama Losing It
I understand why this is a popular blog genre, for those who really don't like Obama, and I understand why a lot of Democrats would be upset with the guy post election, and I personally think he's narcissistic, delusional, lazy, intellectually lazy, and an ass. Still, I'm tired of seeing this kind of crap, which recycles the rumors without adding any context or new material to back up the points.
Obama made a stupid joke about visiting Hugo Chavez on the way back from Europe. Somebody observed that he seemed "punchy." So what? You write for Gawker? You're Andrew Sullivan, or Perez Hilton?
If you're going to speculate, at least bring some kind of evidence.
Are Obama’s foreign policy initiatives living in the past?
In large part, at least according to Jackson Diehl:
For help understanding the foreign policy headlines of the past week, let's return, briefly, to the spring of 1983, when Barack Obama was a student at Columbia University. What were the burning international issues of that time?
Well, first was the "nuclear freeze" movement, which was prompting mass demonstrations around the world by people worried about the standoff between the Soviet Union and the United States. Obama published an article about it in a campus magazine in which he invoked the vision of "a nuclear free world."
So has nothing changed in the past quarter-century? In fact, almost everything has - especially when it comes to nuclear arms control and Israel's national objectives. What hasn't changed, it seems, is Barack Obama - who has led his administration into a foreign policy time warp that is sapping its strength abroad and at home.
Start with the New START treaty that Obama has made a priority for the lame-duck Senate, at a time when Americans don't yet know what income tax rate they will pay on Jan. 1. The treaty resembles the landmark U.S.-Soviet arms control treaties that were negotiated in the years after Obama wrote his article - and it would perpetuate their important verification measures.
The difference is that no one stages marches today about U.S. and Soviet - now Russian - strategic weapons, and with good reason. The danger of a war between the two states is minuscule; and treaty or no, Russia's arsenal is very likely to dwindle in the coming years. The threat of nuclear weapons now comes from rogue states such as North Korea, Iran and Syria, and maybe from terrorist organizations. Obama believes that U.S.-Russian treaties will lead to better containment of that threat - but that's at best an indirect benefit.
People who’ve interacted with me on many comment threads here at POWIP are no doubt aware that this is something I’ve been saying for some time; especially when the subject turned to Obama’s single-minded determination in negotiating START. Which seems to reveal an almost OCD-like obsession with what no doubt were his once hookah enhanced, and reinforced by approving hippy-chicks, dreams of realizing the NO NUKES! mantra that he assuredly once chanted in unison with others who actively sought to undermine then President Reagan’s plan to rebuild the US military-including modernizing our strategic systems. A plan which ultimately worked, not only in re-asserting US leadership in foreign affairs and the top-to-bottom modernization of US forces, but in hastening the end to a totalitarian Soviet regime. A result that he and some of his more bitter fellow travelers probably still grieve over.
In fact, for Mr. Obama, in its original form START was surely a double win, as it managed to include limitations on missile defense systems; assets that only America has in any really effective sense, when talking about strategic missile defense, and direct descendants of that most equally hated Reagan program; The Strategic Defense Initiative, or “Star Wars Technology” as it was derisively called at the time. I find it exceedingly curious that both our strategic adversaries and the American left view this clearly defensive capability as being somehow unfair. To which I ask, “Unfair to whom”…
Fortunately, if Senators Kyl and Corker are correct, and to be believed, the offensive, limiting, language has been excised from the version of START being considered by the Senate, although, it should be pointed out that others have their doubts.
Now, in theory, limiting nuclear arsenals is not a bad idea in and of itself; it’s an agenda that many past Presidents, including Mr. Reagan, have fruitfully pursued. But in this instance, with Obama’s START initiative, it seems that the treaty is more beneficial to the Russians than the US. This is because the Russians are in a position to either upgrade their arsenal, to even retain their currents capabilities, or else scrap it altogether; a position that the US military is not in owing to our ongoing maintenance and modernization programs. So the agreement relieves the Russians of making the hard decision to undertake an expensive military program and instead allows them to put the sorely needed money to work elsewhere. Not so for our country.
It’s unclear what benefits we would receive in return for lightening the Russians burden. Maybe greater cooperation regarding Iran, but that hasn’t appeared to be the case so far. Maybe it is part of a greater strategy to draw them into the NATO alliance, which would be ironic indeed since NATO was established in opposition to the Soviets. It would clearly be in the US long term interests for the Russians to be our strategic partners, both against Middle East threats as well as the growing Chinese strategic capabilities. And make no mistake that the mercantilist Chinese are our strategic adversaries, both and economically and militarily.
But what is inexplicable is Mr. Obama’s apparent willingness to sacrifice an element the US strategic initiative by reducing the US arsenal, at a time when Chinese capabilities are being expanded, as well as being ready to surrender, or at least stall, further development of our strategic missile defense capability; this being demonstrated by his dramatically curtailing the already viable airborne laser system program, as well as canceling the deployment of the proven missile defense batteries in eastern Europe, opting instead to go with an already planned evolution of the SM based system that will involve ground based and sea-borne elements. All this at a time when our chief global adversaries, China, Iran, and North Korea are evolving both their technologies and systems toward achieving strategic military parity with America.
So instead of moving ahead, he seems content to “fight the last war”; a strategy that has always failed miserably in the past. But an effort that may, in the long run, prove to be successful for those who in their hearts seem to believe that the US needs to be taken down a few pegs when it comes to strategic dominance.
So would this be a case where it would be wrong to say, “I hope he fails!”? What do you think kind reader?
Another Monday Miscellany
On occasion, I've written here about Charlie Sheen. I have a peculiar fascination with celebretards, and he's one of the most idiotic.
Yeah, I know that "Two and a Half Men" is one of those Breeder Shows that conservatives are supposed to favor, but I can't get beyond knowing that Charlie Sheen is actually a much more screwed up and destructive character than the one he gets two and a half million per episode to play. Also, the guy who plays Alan looks like Kos.
So, when Stacy writes that the porn star who locked herself in the bathroom of Sheen's room at the Plaza while he trashed the place after not being able to find his watch or wallet now claims that he was screaming racial epithets while battering the door and threatening her, I'm not surprised. What strikes me is what strikes Stacy: the guy physically threatens and terrifies a woman---porn star/hooker or not---and causes thousands of dollars of damage to his hotel room, admits to cops that he's been snorting blow while he's on probation for having threatened his wife, and turns around to file divorce against the woman as a result of his being caught behaving like a violent, drunken ass, and I'm supposed to believe that the worst of this is his using racial epithets?
And Stacy's right, too: he's a wackjob truther lib, so the press treats him like a bad boy, instead of the you're-never-going-to-work-in-this-town-again psycho killer they would, if he were, say, Mel Gibson. So far, I don't see anyone boycotting CBS, but in my admittedly bizarre view, his behavior is way beyond anything that proggs have tried to pin on Beck, FWIW. And I realize that where libs are concerned, it's not worth much, because they live in Symbolic Fantasy Land.
And I say that as a Catholic.
Speaking of asshole celebretards, Al "Release My Chakra" Gore, who's too cheap despite his many millions to spring for an actual hooker, has come clean about the enormous ethanol boondoggle, stating that it was a bad idea, and that he was doing a favor for Tennessee farmers and eying Iowa when he voted to make us all pay through the nose to put that crap in our cars. Thanks, you jackass.
Silvio Berlusconi, most recently employed substituting a missing penis on a sculpture, nevertheless has better taste than Bubba.
Lawrencia Bembenek, whom every Wisconsinite of a certain age will remember, has died at the age of 52, perhaps having drunk herself to death.
Lawrencia, Laurie or Bambi Bambenek was arrested on murder charges in Wisconsin in the shooting death of her cop husband's ex-wife. Lots of folks felt that she'd been set up, so when she escaped from prison, there were innumerable "Run, Bambi, Run" bumper stickers to be seen. She had earlier been a Bunny at the (now long defunct) Playboy Club in Lake Geneva, Wisconsin. She managed to escape to Canada, if I recall correctly, and her story was turned into a couple of books and a movie starring Tatum O'Neill. That's all off the top of my head, so I could be wrong, but I may do a longer piece of Americana/Wisconsiniana on it, if I have the time and inclination. The photo is from Life magazine, so that gives you an idea.
William Jacobson urges Sarah Palin to show no mercy in her treatment of Gawker, who violated copyright to post some excerpts from her new book.
I don't see the point in reading Sports Illustrated. To tell you the truth, I seldom have. Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback column has more NFL news in it than the entire print edition will, anyway. I disagree with him that the Packers are the best team in the league right now. I'd place them about 4th, personally, though they've been impressive in the past few weeks, and they've had a great season considering all of the injuries they suffered early on. The reason? Complete teams have a running game. Nance flashed a little potential on Sunday, though.
Some of the writers over at Bleacher Report are pretty good, but I think that Gabe Zaldivar may have written the worst ever team ranking column I have ever seen. Are the Lucky Jets the best team in football? What are you on?
Last Week's Ranking: 11
Why they stay the same:
The Packers put a whopping on the Vikings. But as you will see, there is not much in the way of fluidity in the top ten. Good teams will win on a weekly basis. So close to the end of the season, the Packers should just be thankful they are still in the hunt.
85 to 10 over the past three weeks is pretty good, dude.
Another pearl of wisdom:
The Jaguars have beaten teams with grit and with a side of miraculous effort. I can still recall the Hail Mary that stunned us all last weekend
Still? Well, that's . . . that's . . . quite an . . . it must have made a deep impression.
Ric Locke's too busy to blog again, which is good. He's back to working his $8 per hour job, which is . . . mixed. His fuel pump gave out on the car, so he's driving the monster truck, which is expensive. Prayers for him and Bobbie.
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