November « 2010

19Nov/107

Sexy Megyn Kelly Photos in GQ

Everyone else has that story, that seems to have been broken by TV Newser, so instead I'll just ask you to take the survey that is mentioned by this young researcher:

Mr. Collins,
I am a friend of Rich Roberts. He informed me that you were a blogger and I am currently looking for conservative bloggers to take this online survey.
Allow me to introduce myself, I am Tristan Stanziale, a research assistant to Dr. Diana Cohen, a Political Scientist at Central Connecticut State University. She is currently conducting research to shed positive light on the Conservative Blogosphere and the Right Roots. She has received a book contract, and needs help from Bloggers to take her survey. The name of her book is "Elephants go Online: The Rise of Right roots Politics." The link to the Survey is here:

http://www.surveymethods.com/EndUser.aspx?A185E9F3A2E6F4F0A5.

If you could please take this survey and pass it on to other conservative bloggers it would be great. please let me know if you take the survey.

Please feel free to contact me.
Tristan Stanziale
Research Assistant, Dr. Diana Cohen
stanzialetrj@ccsu.edu
(860)986.8286 (c)

You don't really have to be a blogger to take it. Typos apart, it's much more interesting than the usual survey fare.

Thanks!

While I'm soliciting good deeds---or pimping them, if you prefer---please donate if you're able to good friend and blogger Jimmie Bise, whose faithful Ford suffered some kind of damage. And make sure you watch his vcast, too.

I've seen some argument over whether or not Mary Katharine Ham is hot or not. I don't really understand the controversy, because I think she is winsome.

If you wouldn't let her touch your junk, please let us know why.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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Filed under: Too Lazy to Categorize 7 Comments

19Nov/104

This Ain’t Your Grandma’s Pumpkin Pie

Things I'm Thankful For:

11. Schlafly's Pumpkin Ale. I've never been a beer drinker. Never really liked the taste of it. I mean, why drink a beer when a Cabernet Sauvignon tastes so delicious? Well, now I have seen the light, and boy have I been missing out. I think my problem with beer is that I have expensive tastes. I don't mean to, I just do. So when I tried a Michelob Ultra, or a Bud light, it just did nothing for me. And then this past summer sitting at a Braves game, I don't really know why, but I ordered a Blue Moon with an orange, and it was like the clouds rolled back the the heavenly choir sang. Needless to say, I've liked beer ever since.

So I say all that to say this, I bought this Schlafly Pumpkin Ale a few weeks ago, and now I'm addicted. But I must warn you, it's kind of hard to drink more than two at a time. It's like desert, deep and rich, and cinnamon-y, and nutmeg-y. Kind of like real pumpkin pie except better, and not so sweet. In Tennessee you can only buy it at the liquor store because the alcohol content is higher, and in Jackson, you can only get them at one liquor store, so the owner laughs at me every time I come in. He only ordered 30 six-packs, and I think I've bought half of them. If you get a chance, try one with your meal this Thanksgiving. You won't regret it.

Cross-posted at Johanna Hopes.

Johanna

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Filed under: Too Lazy to Categorize 4 Comments

19Nov/105

I Didn’t Fly All the Way to Italy . . .

to see David sporting a Berlusconi!

Italy PM replaces penis on statue, angers experts

Speaking of which, a list of folks who voted to forward the Internet censorship bill, stuffed into COICA, out of the Judiciary Committee for consideration. There are several Republicans here, all of whom richly deserve primary challenges:

* Patrick J. Leahy -- Vermont
* Herb Kohl -- Wisconsin
* Jeff Sessions -- Alabama
* Dianne Feinstein -- California
* Orrin G. Hatch -- Utah
* Russ Feingold -- Wisconsin
* Chuck Grassley -- Iowa
* Arlen Specter -- Pennsylvania
* Jon Kyl -- Arizona
* Chuck Schumer -- New York
* Lindsey Graham -- South Carolina
* Dick Durbin -- Illinois
* John Cornyn -- Texas
* Benjamin L. Cardin -- Maryland
* Tom Coburn -- Oklahoma
* Sheldon Whitehouse -- Rhode Island
* Amy Klobuchar -- Minnesota
* Al Franken -- Minnesota
* Chris Coons -- Delaware

Yeah, Amy, you're a dick, too.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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Filed under: Too Lazy to Categorize 3 Comments

19Nov/100

Good News! China’s UAV development surprises western officials

WJ600 drone (left) and J-10 fighters (right)

And the best part? Well, that would be how just about everything you buy at Walmart or Target is helping to fund this leap in military technology:

Western defense officials and experts were surprised to see more than 25 different Chinese models of the unmanned aircraft, known as UAVs, on display at this week's Zhuhai air show in this southern Chinese city. It was a record number for a country that unveiled its first concept UAVs at the same air show only four years ago, and put a handful on display at the last one in 2008.

The apparent progress in UAVs is a stark sign of China's ambition to upgrade its massive military as its global political and economic clout grows.

That has implications for China's external and domestic security, as well as for many other countries, including Iran, that have sought in vain to acquire drones either for military purposes or for police surveillance and antiterrorist operations.

Military and aviation experts said China's drones are still probably several years behind U.S. and Israeli models, noting that many countries have tried and failed to develop their own UAVs. But they also said that China is catching up fast in other areas of civil and military aviation technology, thanks in large part to technology transferred by foreign aerospace companies in Chinese joint ventures.
[emphasis-ed.]

On that last note, I'm sure they'd like to give an especially warm "shout-out" to Bill Clinton, who paved the way for such transfers by approving the sale of missile guidance systems in the mid 90's. After all, they promised only to use them for peaceful space science applications, right? And the checks in the mail, and they won't, well, you know ...

Of course, we can't let President Clinton get all the credit. Recall that it was the Bush administration that allowed the sale of IBM's personal computing division to the Chinese. Yeah, thanks for that. It gives this knuckle-dragging wingnut a chance to earnestly whinge, "I BLAME BOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH!".

In their zeal to take advantage of China's relatively low labor cost as well as the perennially favorable exchange rate, American businesses have been increasing the Chinese industrial and technological infrastruture for the past 15 years, either unwittingly or with callous disregard for the long term effects on our nation. That no one could see it happening is no surprise though really, considering that different facets of the same institutions, government and the private sector, coudn't see the forest for the trees while the real estate bubble was inflating. And where we've come to, may be a very dangerous place indeed.

It's no secrate that some in the aviatior community have viewed the coming UAV revolution with a jaundiced eye. Not only because of the elimination of the pilot from the aircraft, locally, means some loss of direct decision making and the initiative that comes with that, but also for the philosophical reason that, if none of your people are at risk and presumably only your adversary is suffering casualties, it makes the decision to initiate combat that much easier. Indeed, one of the most chilling pictures from the Zhuhai air show was of a graphical display of Chinese forces using the WJ600 drone to attack what was clearly a US aircraft carrier headed for Taiwan. But it's especially sobering in light of the fact that essentially we're funding and abetting this Chinese vision of the future...

Some of this rapid technological advance stems from direct technology transfer. Still other parts of it come from flat-out industrial piracy; the Chinese have raised the art of reverse engineering to heights the Soviets could only have dreamed of back in the bad-old-days of the cold war. It's no surprise that the WJ600 drone, or the J-10 fighter, looks remarkably similar to US drones and the Saab 39 Gripen; although in some respects such aircraft naturally appear similar because of mission driven design elements. Who knows what kind of data they mined recently when they managed to redirect 15% of the world's internet traffic, including US government websites, through their highly controlled government internet servers?

But we would be doing ourselves no favor, by underestimating our adversaries, to not admit that there was some organic innovation involved as well. The bottom line is that the Chinese have been exploting the world economically, via their artificial exchange rates and rapacious mercantilist economic model, as well as taking advantage of the extraordianary availablility of information on the world wide web to drive technological, industrial, and military developments in their country while we're arguing about phony tenets of social justice and fighting over redistribution of wealth...

There is no easy answer. And I'm not advocating protectionist policies whatsoever. But in the same way I said that businesses should consider the ultimate effects of their decisions on the nation, so too should we all. I would start by suggesting that, whenever possible, folks would buy American made goods; advice I would especially suggest to all of the union members among our readers. I know that's increasingly difficult, but not impossible. My wife and I buy American products whenever possible, as well as taking every opportunity to make a point of patronizing local businesses instead of national chains. Our economy needs to be revitalized from the bottom up, through personal initiative and effort, and not through redistribution from the top down.

As a nation, we need to stop building up other countries economies. Especially those of our strategic adversaries, who use the resulting capabilities and abundance of wealth developing weapons systems that could one day be brought to bear against us.

Rocketman

Tagged as: China, military technology No Comments

19Nov/107

Beefcake Friday Volume V

If I have to say anything other than Johnny Depp...then you are not my friend.

Dede

Sometimes stuff rumbles around in my brain that's longer than 140 characters and, well......twitlonger just seems like cheating. :)

Tagged as: elventy, jack sparrow, johnny depp. amy anne 7 Comments

19Nov/102

A Plug for RightNetwork

As some of you may know, Little Miss Attila/Joy McCann, on the prodding of Smitty, decided to give me a chance to write for the start-up internet site that she edits with Gerard Van der Leun. I urge you to read everything that I post there. And comment. I love comments.

What I want to say, though, is that RightNetwork really is very good, despite me. I'll give you some examples. Here is Gerard (formerly Jerry) writing about his namesake, and today on the Gettysburg Address. Here is a fascinating series on the unanticipated costs of the sexual revolution, the pill, and other interventions into human sexuality, which, I hope, will become a book. Related: a series on masculinity by POWIP fave Christopher Taylor. Joy and her husband both post there, too, and there's Q&A with Robin of Berkeley.

Remember when Kelsey Grammer announced that new wingnut webcast channel? That's over there, too, with original programming that's worth your time, including Dennis Prager and political chat over poker. (I suggested beach volleyball chat with hot conservative women, and they mocked me. Mocked me!) Gateway Pundit Jim Hoft is over there, providing up-to-the-minute news and analysis all day long, too, including this piece on the Logan Field TSA Agent who was just arrested on rape an assault charges.

Now that I've mentioned that last, I might as well mention the airport staff that laughed and joked when a woman's breasts were exposed to all and sundry during a pat down. Moe Lane has the skinny on Cowboys & Aliens, coming to a theater near you soon. Anthony Martin asks whether Ulsterman and Deep Throat, chronicling the trouble at the WH, are legit and comes to the same conclusions I have.

In Chicago, a reporter who hasn't taken the hint asks Rahm a question about Freddie Mac, marring the "optics" of his media coronation. James Joyner tells parents how to talk to their kids about good and bad Star Wars trilogies.

To steal an idea from Maetenloch, today's links brought to you by maybe NSFW feminine beauty.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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Filed under: Too Lazy to Categorize Continue reading

18Nov/104

Chicago Pensions – Why Daley is Leaving his Sinecure

Because the money is running out.

Some may point to possible corruption charges, but come on... any Daley could weather such a storm. What he can't weather is the gravy train stopping.

Let's take a look. First, let me send you to John Bury, a pension actuary who has been making some cashflow projections. In that link, you'll see a number of cities listed, but the one to note is that the assets backing Chicago's pensions could run out within a decade. Bury has spreadsheets if you want to see the numbers, and yes, Bury has to make certain assumptions for these projections. A listing of assumptions is hereand here. It's not just some lone actuary spinning these numbers -- Daley hired some people to look into this for him:

In April, a commission appointed by Mayor Richard Daley found that the city's funds could start running out of money as early as 2019, beginning with the firefighters fund. The commission's recommendations included lowering benefits for new hires and increasing funding from the city but stopped short of reducing benefits for current workers, which the majority of panel members felt was unconstitutional.

I want you to understand a difference here between insolvency and running out of cash. One can value liabilities on paper and compare against assets -- if the assets aren't enough to cover present value of liabilities, you're insolvent (and for insurance companies, the trigger is usually well before you hit this limit). In pensions, they can get a bit funny about "insolvent", especially public pensions. There's no official definition of insolvency for public pensions. Having assets at about 80% of liabilities is counted as doing well.

Chicago? The last report I can find on Chicago pensions mentions a funded ratio of 43%.

That's bad, if you couldn't figure it out.

In any case, that's comparing some numbers on paper to other numbers on paper, and given how many things it's dependent on it's not exactly real. All sorts of things could happen before the cashflows needed come to pass. The people valuing either assets or liabilities could be "wrong" in that sense - this is just a best estimate. But making up that 57% deficit is pretty daunting, of $15B in total, considering that the annual city budget is on the order of $3B according to this last estimate. But anyway, looking at that point-in-time number doesn't tell me if those cashflows needed to cover pension payments are more in the next year or 30 years from now. This can still seem fluffy even to well-meaning people.

Running out of cash, though? Yeah, that's tangible. I already noted that one Illinois pension fund looks to be in a death spiral. Think of it this way -- say you're a grad student with a low income, but lots of assets saved up, and you're paying for Manhattan rent. The income doesn't keep up with the rent, but you're cashing out the assets.... but at some point the assets are gone (yes, I did this.... why do you ask? I stopped before pissing all my assets away, though.)

The "running out of cash" thing is due to a lot of things, and in Chicago's case surprise SURPRISE, Daley is involved:

With help from allies in Springfield, the Daley administration pushed to have the pension code rewritten so property tax money that normally went to pensions would go to Chicago Public Schools coffers. Under the old law, the district's pension bill was slated to be $93 million in 1995. Instead, it paid just $10 million.

But wait, there's more! Assets hard to value? Pension bets not paying off? That wouldn't be at all linked to Daley's nephew being tapped to deal with some of the investments, would it?

But while it's fun to point fingers on the investment side, the next mayor of Chicago will need to need to figure out how to deal with the liability side of pensions.

I have a response to this guy from a previous link:

Chicago's pension crisis threatens to stain the legacy of Mayor Richard Daley, who has been at the helm of city government for the past two decades and appoints some of the trustees to the city's pension boards.The city's chief financial officer, Gene Saffold, said that the problems facing the city's public pension funds are not unique to Chicago and have been driven in large part by the worst economic climate in more than 70 years. He said the possibility of the funds running out of money "is purely hypothetical and speculative."

You know what? When I was sitting on some pretty hefty savings (yes, much in equities) and paying $1400/month in rent, with an income of about $24K/year (gross, not net), sure running out of money was "theoretical". But I could make a best-estimate projection of when I would run out. I want you to consider what it would take Chicago pension funds to =not= run out of money. Would you like to share that projection, Mr. CFO? I have a feeling it would be deliriously optimistic, requiring Skittles-shitting-unicorns teaming up with underwear gnomes to achieve mega-profits.

So yeah, Daley is getting out before the real hard stuff hits.

Life After Daley Will Be Sobering, writes The Chicago Tribune editorial board: "If for no reason more enchanting than municipal finance, Chicago after Daley will find — must find — not just a new mayor, but a new direction... Richard J. Daley ruled Chicago when gullywashers of cash flowed easily from Washington to urban areas. Richard M. Daley, mayor in a more constrained era, couldn't be the builder his father was. He has, though, grown city government's debt, adjusted for inflation, to more than double what it was when he became mayor. Chicago's property tax base has grown by a much smaller margin. And the city's pension system, like the state's, is severely underfunded, with only about 43 percent of the money it needs to meet its obligations: The firefighters' fund could go broke in 10 years, the police fund 12 years later. So the missing $14.6 billion to erase Chicago's pension shortfalls will come from — where?"

I'll tell you where.

It will get cut out, not only from bondholders and taxpayers, not only from new public employees, but also current and near retirees.

And it will get cut. Because there's not enough of the next generations to tax, for one, and if they try to squeeze the people too hard, the people know how to look up the number for U-Haul. Some may talk about federal bailouts... but such bailouts would have to be originated in the House of Representatives. Do you see that happening?

Hey - I've got a feel-good cut we could all stand behind.... cutting 100% the pensions of politicians -- past, present, and future. I bet you could even get Illinoisians to pass a state constitutional amendment lickety-split to make it so. That won't make up the gap, but it will make us all feel good.

For me, this is about managing expectations, and I want politicians and public unions to expect the financial reckoning. There are not enough taxpayers to soak. There are not enough bondholders to soak. You will have to take a hit, too. I figure people will be less hurt if they can plan for the government not being around for them. Guess what, union workers? You can't count on those pensions when they've been pissed away over the years. You may try to sue your pensions into existence, but you had best be running your own numbers now, saving up what you can, and figuring what cuts you can expect and what you can live with. You should not depend on the politicians or the pieces of paper you rattle to try to get the full measure of their promises.

If the promises were not prepared for, they will not be kept.

If I were Daley, I'd leave the country entirely.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

Tagged as: Chicago, daley, illinois, public pensions 4 Comments

18Nov/107

Bad Congressman Rangel Gets Punished

Rangel, you come here! Now!

Sit, Rangel! Sit!

Rangel, lie down! Stay!

Staaaaay!

You've been a naughty, naughty Congressman! Don't give me that look!

No committees for you! You just stay!

. . . .

BAD Congressman!

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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Filed under: Too Lazy to Categorize 7 Comments

18Nov/103

I’m Celebrating Thanksgiving, Dammit. How About You? [UPDATED by Dan]

I feel like more and more, Thanksgiving is becoming the red-headed step-child of holidays. I was in Sears two weeks ago buying new glasses, and to my dismay, realized I was humming along to "Santa Clause is Coming to Town" blasting from the store's speakers. Half the people in my neighborhood already have their Christmas trees up. It's like Thanksgiving is no longer relevant. I guess because there's no presents? Who knows. Regardless it's sad. I don't want to speak for everyone else, but I, at least, don't spend enough time expressing gratitude for all the things I have, so, in the true spirit of this beautiful and under-celebrated holiday, I'm trying to change all that.

My sister-in-law has a blog where she is celebrating 25 days of thankfulness in honor of Thanksgiving, and it has inspired me to do the same. And in the past 10 days that I have participated, you would not believe how much my attitude has changed. Being thankful is good for the soul. If you don't believe me, try it yourself. Every day, I have have posted one thing that I am thankful for. So far these are the things that have made the list:

1. The fact that I am not always right.

2. My bed.

3. Surprises.

4. My dad.

5. My crazy pills.

6. My pjs.

7. The one and only pupsicle.

8. My Crossfit group.

Here's a sample: I'm thankful for crooked smiles and other imperfections. When I was in high school I had a gigantic nose, the body of a 12 year-old boy, and a crooked smile. I was always very self-conscious about the way I looked. I was teased, told I was ugly, etc. In the 15 or so years since the awkwardness of high school, I have grown more into my nose (although, I still favor Blossom when I glance in the mirror every now and then). God decided to give me a more...eh...womanly figure (finally!), but I still have that same crooked smile.

But you know what? I've grown much more accepting and way less critical of my looks over the years. In fact, I look at all my imperfections now as giving me character. The imperfections are what make me unique. Different from everyone else. Besides, are not all our "imperfections" perfections in the eyes of our Creator? We are each one a masterpiece, created in His perfect image. We should celebrate our imperfections, rather than hide them....... Heh, easier said than done, as I put on heels to make me taller, mascara to define my eyes, blush to give me cheek bones, and so forth. But at least today I'm thankful for my crooked smile. There's simply no hiding that one.