POWIP Piece of Work In Progress – Former Abode of Dan Collins

Explanation of my Attitude

And this is not going to be much of an explanation. And not be of much importance.

[an interlude: there's this teenage girl behind me, or maybe she's 20. I don't know. The first thing I heard her say to the guy she was with: "I am not a ho." Needless to say, her nattering is distracting. Dammit, why can you not text the guy sitting right next to you? What's the matter with kids these days?]

People may not understand my attitude when it comes to public finance, public pensions, etc. I most definitely have some very political opinions. But I don't talk about most of them. Because, like assholes, everybody has got one. Any person can set up a blog and tell you their opinion. They can tell you of the shouldas and what people deserve and yadda yadda yadda.

That is not my interest.

My interest is telling people what is happening and what is likely to happen. This is how I get into arguments - not because I necessarily disagree with people as to what =should= be the case. It's because I think they are very wrong about the reality and the likelihoods. I got in deep shit by pointing out some very unwelcome observations when I was in high school [not that I cared]. I continue to be seen as a shit-stirrer, but I'm neither stirring the shit nor am I the person who put the shit there. I'm the one saying "Guys, that shit stinks. It's going to smell even more as time goes on."

So, when it comes to public pensions, it's not that I think these things should not be paid. It's that I think that they won't be paid in certain cases, for certain reasons. People have been leaving copy-n-paste articles in the comments on my posts, and they are not necessarily false. Yes, the pensions are being pissed away on corruption and debt payments and all sorts of stuff. But hoping for future taxpayers to cover it is not a plan. Playing the lottery is not a plan. Sure, ya never know, but the probabilities are not good.

I am trying to warn people that promises that have been made, but there has been no planning to prepare for, will not be kept. No one will wave a wand and =poof= the money is magically there. A country can't play the lottery and think it will cover all the goodies it wants with a non-infinitesimal probability. Maybe some are counting on TEOTWAWKI to happen, so that these promises are forgotten. Some play math games, pretending that "Yay, in the long run, the money will be there!" in the face of declining populations and taxpayer cashflows where the public employee salary and benefits are too sweet.

This is not about what people deserve, though the stories of double-dipping, spiking, and other misbehavior is making it less and less likely that taxpayers will care as to the state of the pensions. Because they won't pay for them.

[Teenager: "Does this haircut make me look older? Do I look like a 12-year-old?" Dear Lord, let this chick get off at White Plains.]

Someone sent me a link with stories of NYC Sanitation Workers comments saying they didn't slack off, they were under-staffed. You know, that's believable just as the other stories. The issue is that people are becoming more aware of what people are being paid for this job and they do see how leisurely that job is being fulfilled. This is not like my work, socked away in a cubicle in a back office. In a previous position, if I screwed up, no one would have known for at least 20 years.

The problem is that people are getting an idea of what's involved in a public job, and then they find out the recompense for it, and they do get a bit touchy. When they're the ones paying for it. And asked to pay for it well after the service is performed and no longer providing benefit. At least when I watch Paint Your Wagon, I'm not asked 20 years later to contribute to Clint Eastwood's pension payments.

In any case, it's pointless to get mad at me about these things. I'm trying to tell you what's going on, and what's likely to go on.

[The chatty chick is not getting off til a couple stops before me! =weep=]

For those in a public pension plan themselves, I think they should be asking hard questions of the pension trustees and not thinking that 80% fundedness is a good thing. It's not. I think there will be clawbacks at best in many public pension plans, and total dropping of retiree health coverage in lots of places [whether or not Obamacare is here to stay]. Think about your BATNA (business-school speak for what you're willing to settle for. Because y'all might have to settle, depending on the state of your pension plans.)

For those holding public bonds, ignore those ratings, don't count on bond insurance, and do not think the feds will bail you out; take a good, hard look at the finances of the entity you're holding bonds for. If those cashflows can't support all its obligations, you may be looking at a haircut. You may be looking at a bond default. Or your investment may be entirely eaten away by inflation and higher interest rates.

Taxpayers, you will get stuck with at least some of the bill, and there are consequences to bankruptcy of a municipality or a state defaulting on its bonds. Not all states and municipalities are profligate. But you have a responsibility to keep an eye on your government budgets. You may have less influence at the federal level, or even state, but you can get started at the level of your town or city. Local elections are actually the most crucial and the ones you should be mosst involved in, though people are more apt to vote in Presidential elections. Get to know your officials, get to know what's going on. This is your self-interest as a taxpayer. If you don't do this, you only have yourself to blame.

For politicians, learn an honest trade. Because even if it's not your fault, people are going to blame you when the shit hits the fan, and you will not be able to keep your current job. And being able to escape before said feces hits the propeller might be too late for many. Daley got out just in time.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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