POWIP Piece of Work In Progress

22Mar/114

Biden’s Originalism

Via The Blaze comes the story of how Joe Biden, citing among other authorities the Federalist Papers, argued that only Congress had the power to authorize war, and that for the Executive to do so unilaterally was monarchical. He was able to make this assertion in light of his reading of the clear intention of the Framers, even though their language is probably like more than a hundred years old!!!

And I quite agree with him.

At one time, Obama seems to have agreed with him as well, though times have apparently changed now that FLOTUS can once again be proud to be an American.

Mind you, that doesn't mean that I'm against bombing the crap out of Gaddafi's war materiel. We've seen what sanctions do, when our allies turn a blind eye to backdoor profiteering. On the other hand, Obama sat around for a couple of weeks issuing toothless platitudes when he could have been discussing matters with his Cabinet and Congress, before his higglety-pigglety decision to take action. Instead, Ad Hoc Man waited till the last minute, called an emergency session of his advisers, dropped off a quick note to the legislative types, gave the green light to the military, and flew to Rio to let his melatonin resonate, and perhaps do a little cliff diving for Wide World of Sports.

UPDATE: Gabriel Malor on same.

So this is yet another end run around Congress, which is what he's been doing since well before the GOP took back the House. Only this is far worse than merely avoiding Congress on Yucca Mountain, offshore drilling, net neutrality, card check, and cap and trade. The President has committed the United States to war and placed Service Members in danger without constitutionally-required authority to do so.

Waging war in violation of the U.S. Constitution sounds like a High Crime to me. So I'd like someone to explain to me why we shouldn't be talking about impeachment right now.

And it seems that we dodged a bullet. Two US airmen ejected from an F-15 over Libya. Fortunately, both were recovered, it seems.

They're saying mechanical malfunction, but we'll probably see a couple of Libyan army types dancing on the wreckage with their rifles in an hour or two.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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21Mar/112

In His Twilight, A Rosenberg Co-Conspirator Comes Clean

Morton Sobel:

“I did it for the Soviet Union,” he said, leading Mr. Radosh and Mr. Usdin to conclude that Mr. Rosenberg and his fellow American Communists “were motivated by loyalty to the Soviet Union, not opposition to fascism as their defenders claim.”

The Rosenbergs, who were accused of conspiracy to steal atomic bomb secrets from the United States, were sentenced to death and executed in 1953. Mr. Sobell served 18 years for nonatomic spying. He was released in 1969 and, until the Times interview, maintained his innocence and insisted that he had been framed by the government.

But, you know, free Mumia!

Although The Unquiet Death of Julius and Ethel Rosenberg can hardly be considered definitive, the 83-minute 1974 PBS documentary provides a historical portrait of U.S. political life in both the McCarthy era and the Watergate period of its creation. The Rosenberg case remains controversial to this day, 57 years after the American government executed them for conspiracy to commit treason with conflicting evidence turning up over the years. Facets Video deserves credit for preserving the film and making it available on DVD for the first time.

If you're expecting new revelations, you're certain to be disappointed with the film since the topic has been explored and revisited numerous times. But the film remains a fascinating document that captures the spirit of the Cold War and reveals the darker suspicions Americans began to deal with in the 1970s.

Given the fact that Julius and Ethel Rosenberg maintained their innocence to the very end when they could have spared themselves from the electric chair with even a bogus confession, they established themselves as a symbol that remains deeply troubling for the U.S. Many Americans believed at the time that the Rosenbergs were innocent pawns in McCarthyism's mass hysteria game. We're more than familiar with injustices perpetrated by non-democratic regimes, but it's harder to swallow the possibility that the U.S. government being guilty of executing innocent people for political purpose. But that's the insinuation pointedly made over the course of the film.

Not at all related:

The Lockerbie bombing killed 270 people. Among the many Americans killed was Matthew Gannon, a Beirut-based CIA officer. Libyan intelligence agent Abdelbaset al-Megrahi was ultimately convicted of masterminding the attack.

To learn more about the history of Operation El Dorado Canyon and Lockerbie, I spoke with William Beeman, a Middle East expert and anthropology professor at University of Minnesota. The text that follows has been edited for length and clarity.

Can you summarize the political context in the 1980s that led up to the American bombing in Libya in 1986?

Well, Colonel Gadhafi was a very iconoclastic figure from the time he took power in 1969. He had been involved in supporting any number of terrorist organizations including the Irish Republican Army. In particular he was very upset about the fact that anti-Gadhafi forces -- Libyan ex-patriates -- had been operating in Europe. In retaliation, he funded the IRA and he claimed that this was payback for the Europeans that were allegedly fostering opposition to his own government. Gadhafi also claimed to be sponsoring the Red Army Faction [in Germany] and was generally considered to be a terrible gadfly to Europeans and to the United States. He was quite equal opportunity; he also supported Idi Amin in Uganda, and he declared himself the king of kings of all of Africa. So the United States under Reagan declared Libya to be the chief state supporter of terrorism in the 1980s.

What prompted the American bombing in 1986?

The main thing that touched off the incident was the bombing of the La Belle night club in West Berlin in April 1986. There were a small number of people killed and a large number injured. The United States had an absolute smoking gun. The Libyan agents involved in the attack were operating out of East Germany. During the dregs of the Cold War, there was kind of a perfect storm -- East Germany and the communists were involved with the Libyans and they were bombing a night club in West Berlin. So the story was, "Evil Gadhafi and evil communists plot to bomb Westerners." Later on it turned out to be true that the Stasi had been involved, but we didn't know about this for a long time, until after the reunification of Germany. A week after the bombing, Reagan ordered the strike on Libya.

Further: "The story is -- and we don't know this is true for sure -- that he was warned in advance by either the the prime minister of Malta or Prime Minister Craxi of Italy."

Why do I find it easy to believe that Craxi might have done so?

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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21Mar/110

Public Sector Worker Rights

I've been on about this, including my revisiting the issue of public sector workers, who can't be fired, demoted, or caused to pay for a small portion of their health and pensions, because if they resort to suicide or crime it will be our fault. Via Vanderleun, UW-Madison Philosophy Prof Lester Hunt:

Government workers in Greece, faced with austerity measures, rioted and firebombed a bank, burning to death three human beings trapped inside. In New Jersey the Governor responded to a severe recession by denying government school teachers their expected annual raise (a raise, during a recession) and the reaction from public sector unions was screaming, white-faced rage. Here in Wisconsin, the Governor is trying to limit the collective bargaining rights of state workers -- a measure that would leave them with roughly the same rights that federal workers have -- and the reactions from the unions was three weeks of demonstrations, illegal obstruction of the legislative process, and an unprecedented flood of death threats and obscene phone calls.

Clearly, these people sincerely believe that they have rights that people in the private sector do not have. Why?

*******

Haven't we learned in the last year or so, that government workers feel more entitled than others? After all, starting about 3 or 4 years ago, families in the private sector started to behave as if family members would be laid off or cut back. And they were, and they did the best with it that they could. When private sector workers lose economic ground they do not scream, demonstrate, or riot.

Precisely.

Obama was running neck-and-neck with, or even a nose behind McCain when the markets collapsed. Stupidly, it put him over the top, even though he was clearly the taxiest and spendiest of tax and spend liberals. The MFM presented him as a moderate, and a lot of people swallowed that hogwash because they wanted so to believe in hope and change. As Enoch pointed out earlier today, O also stated that he wouldn't be the kind of interventionist warmonger that Boooooosh! was. Because separation of powers, not running roughshod over the Constitution, Cowboy Diplomacy, restore America's standing in the world.

Aaron Worthing:

And then there was this, from the same transcript:

Muammar Qadhafi clearly lost the confidence of his own people and the legitimacy to lead.

Um, wait a minute, Mr. President… Exactly when did Gaddafi have legitimacy? A dictator is illegitimate every day of his rule.

Farrakhan wonders who Obama thinks he is, deposing an Arab tyrant whom Farrakhan admires, because he's all about the civil rights, obviously. Moammar and son, meanwhile, are shocked that Obama would try to overthrow a regime that's done so much for its people, and think (since Obama's a good man) that he's received very bad counsel.

Over in Egypt, the public sector employees who enjoy special privileges and benefits are the military.

Then, there was moderate Obama differing with Hillary over whether or not people ought to have to buy in to a national health care plan. He was against it.

Shaking some of the much-abused bargaining privileges away from the teachers unions in Wisconsin via legislation amounted to villainizing public workers. But thugs threatening the lives of their political opponents, not worth a comment from anti-bullying guy.

The judge who blocked implementation of Walker's bill, then went on vacation, has a son who is a labor rep.

Coverage in Wisconsin:

My own view is that Walker opponents are hurting their cause with this kind of activity. Without mentioning the Journal Sentinel or criticizing its coverage, I made that point in a March 18 e-mail that provided links to the Nolte and Althouse material. My distribution list included George Stanley, managing editor of the Journal Sentinel.

Stanley responded, “Both sides are demonizing each other with deliberate, dishonest propaganda….You reap what you sow.”

I asked, “Are you suggesting that the behavior of Walker supporters is comparable to that of his opponents?” He replied, “I don’t ‘suggest’ like you, George. I didn’t say a word about behavior or go to your links. I prefer honesty to bullshit.”

I replied, “You use the word "propaganda" and say "both sides" are guilty. Death threats. Nails in the driveway. Obscene graffiti. The list goes on and on. This amazing and unwarranted conclusion apparently is how the MJS rationalizes not covering the story.”

I asked Stanley if I could quote him, as I wanted to submit an op-ed to the paper. He said, “No, you’re just full of shit, that’s all I’m saying.” Not sure if the latter comment was a response to my request or just his way of emphasizing his disagreement with my views.

We now have a better understanding of why the Journal Sentinel has shortchanged this important aspect of the ongoing story. In the managing editor’s view, “both sides” apparently have culpability, “you reap what you sow,” and, in the end, it’s “bullshit.”

P.S. As part of this exchange, Stanley claimed I would “mis-quote” him. On request, I will provide the full text of our exchange.It does not fit the template laid out in Sunday’s paper by Editor Marty Kaiser. Referring to the volume of reader reaction to the Capitol news, he said, “We are doing our best to respond to each phone call, e-mail and letter. We explain to readers the difference between our news pages and our opinion pages.”

Majority of Walker's emails backed his legislation.

Chicago, where a Daley nephew is getting away with manslaughter, is sending Wisconsin Jan Schakowsky and her allies, to show how democracy is done.

Cuz we ain't enlightened, capisce?

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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21Mar/110

Public Pension/Finance Roundup 21Mar2011

Ah, spring. When one's thoughts turn to monumental governmental debts.

Which reminds me, I haven't done my taxes yet.

PUBLIC FINANCE

Truth: there aren't enough rich people to tax to cover our debt.

No, really, we are broke.

We've really got to signal that the feds aren't going to bail out the states.

SOCIAL SECURITY

If it wasn't clear to you already: the Trust Fund is a lie. Just because it's printed on paper doesn't make it real assets.

Social Security? Don't bother Reid with Social Security. He'd rather wait until it has completely gone over a cliff.

Great/horrible news! We're living longer!

GENERAL PENSION ISSUES

Dean Baker still trying to confuse the issue with irrelevant math. Good luck with that, buddy. I liked the little lie about being underpaid. Mmm.

If you were wondering about what the American Academy of Actuaries has been putting out there on this issue, they've got a handy Actuarial E-Guide, along with a media coverage page.

Get ready for the main event! The 2011 Enrolled Actuaries Meeting! No, really, some interesting people will be talking about public pensions:

Yes fans, it’s a grudge match championship final four. Contestants are Frank Todisco, chief actuary of the Government Accountability Office; Andrew Biggs, former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration now with the American Enterprise Institute; Keith Brainard, research director for the National Association of State Retirement Administrators; and Elizabeth McNichol, a senior fellow at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities specializing in state fiscal issues.

So get your tickets for ringside seats!

The low-hanging fruit of altering pensions for new hires has already been plucked. Now we're turning to current employees. Wait until they get to current retirees. That will be a hoot.

States need to contribute to pension funds now, after years of shorting the funds...when times were good. So they were being stingy when the tax revenues were good -- you expect them to contribute now? Ha ha.

From Time magazine: budget battle over cost of public employees.

You know where a good place to start cutting would be? Pour encourager les autres? Congressional pensions.

ALABAMA

Higher contributions to pension means lower take-home pay now. It's called trade-offs, guys. Amazing that you're just learning about them now.

CALIFORNIA

Way back on March 11, Jerry Brown said he was ready to deal with public pensions. Really, he's working on some stuff. Really. Looking at stuff. Monty at Ace of Spades takes a look at the state of California's finances, and I really appreciate this line:

Public-sector actuaries are...how shall I put this?...highly motivated to use the most optimistic numbers for their projections.

I'm not a public-sector actuary, but yes, this is hugely contentious in the actuarial community. Those of us who are not public plan actuaries are concerned that this is going to blow up and make the whole profession look bad. It made the top of the strategic risks list this year at the Society of Actuaries, by the way.

But hey, who is going to be checking out the actuaries when there looks like there had been a web of corruption in the massive Calpers pension system. Here's a subscription-only article on the Calpers employees preparing to bolt under new ethics rules.... yeah, that would look great. Here's the blurb:

Many CalPERS investment staffers are looking for new jobs, upset with both proposed ethics rules that they feel go too far and a perception that that all CalPERS employees are disreputable, board member J.J. Jelincic revealed.

More on the fired Calpers CEO. And more on the alleged corruption.
More on the governance of Calpers.

As noted by Monty, Calpers didn't change their discount rate on liabilities, and Ed Mendel wonders how far the funding rules can stretch.

Calstrs guy writes to avoid drastic changes in the pension system. That's definitely self-interest talking, but he has good points (for example, Social Security). That said, Mr. Ehnes -- you need to be putting up your own, workable proposals, because business as usual will not be an option.

San Francisco pensions worse than city claims says report. Here's the report.

One way to fix pensions: massive layoffs.

More of the blame game.

FLORIDA

Longboat Key pensions ranks as amongst worst in state. These guys should stop worrying about who/what is to blame and be more concerned as to if they're going to get what they were promised. Playing the blame game ain't going to get your pension funded or paid.

Just like California, Florida is a bit optimistic about how high those future returns are going to be. Here's a report showing the difference in results at 6 different return assumptions, ranging from 3% up to 7.75%. Gives you a feel for how wide the range of answers can be, and how sensitive it is to that one, crucial assumption.

ILLINOIS

Should part-time elected officials get pensions? Hell, full-timers should get nothing. The people in Illinois are insane.

A video: of the top 100 pension amounts in Illinois, 94 are of educators (I assume this is mostly professors, though).

Back-and-forth on the constitutionality of altering pensions of current employees, and the bottomline of current services versus past services (i.e. pensions). Some balance will occur, and where current services do not win out... people will move. So ultimately, I don't think past service is going to be a winner in the long run. This is why you need to have your pensions funded. Pay-as-you-go is extremely dangerous for the pensioners.

Teachers fund receives full pension contribution. If you consider borrowing money to make a payment a true contribution.

MAINE

When governor was talking of pension cuts, of course he didn't mean his own pension.

MARYLAND

Maryland employees protest total comp changes.

Maryland pension fund to run out in 13 years?

MICHIGAN

I've got a backlog, so here's an old bit on the governor still pushing for a pension income tax back on March 10. This was not popular amongst some groups.

Recent news? It's still unpopular. Surprise, surprise.

This does not inspire confidence in me. Evidently, pols in Michigan are so incompetent, they are passing a law to have other people take over finances where officials have munged up the money. Yay.

NEW JERSEY

As soon as 2013 for NJ pension bust - as said by Veronique de Rugy, and analyzed by John Bury.

Oh goodie. After the SEC already slapped NJ on the wrist for shenanigans, the IRS is reviewing the pension funds.

VIRGINIA

Considering pension plan changes in Alexandria.

WISCONSIN

A look at Wisconsin's most famous bus driver, and how he managed to goose a $50K base salary into a $160K annual pay.

Taxpayers the winners in Walker's battle.

UK

Lecturers going to strike over pension changes. I don't think anybody is going to much care, other than the lecturers. Oh noes! I can't get to calculus class! Oh wait! There's Khan Academy! And I don't have to pay for it! Screw you, prof!

Policemen in UK worry that raising retirement age will create "Dad's Army of officers".

Henry Tapper worries about those working in the pensions world giving pensions a bad name.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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20Mar/115

Subtlety [UPDATED]

Wolly takes Joy McCann, aka Little Miss Attila, to task for a supposedly raaaaacist contrast between the behavior of the Japanese in response to the earthquake and tsunami and that of some residents of New Orleans after Katrina. You mustn't comment on such things at all, because reality has a liberal bias.

The funniest thing about this whole kerfuffle, reported by one of Wolcott's minions and then posted on Vanity Fair, involves the layers and layers of fact checking that went into noticing that the piece quoted by Joy is in fact a parody.

Anyway, here's what Wolly has to say about the satirical news piece, so labelled at the site:

Yes, the Japanese people have conducted themselves admirably in a tremendous crisis. On that we can all agree.

But these tributes were thin envelopes for another, different, domestically-targeted message.

It wasn't a subtle message, because conservatives don't know how to be subtle; it requires too much tonal refinement and sensibility.

I think it's terribly cement-headed and rather racist of him not to have noticed that it's not an actual news piece. It reads a little bit like a Chris Rock bit.

So, yeah, Joy pwn3d herself a little bit, but Wolly double-pwn3d himself.

UPDATE: As per her comment below, and as per his post script to his post, both Joy and Wolly were aware that the original piece was satire.

I was led astray by the comments at Joy's post, which, by my gloss, didn't acknowledge that. Wolcott doesn't permit them.

However, if I were attempting to demonstrate the bias of an opponent, I'd point out that they deployed a satirical piece as though it were real, because it answered their prejudices. Wolly makes a good deal of the photograph. I might remind him that it's a photograph, and as far as we know unretouched. As a general rule, we imagine that such documents represent a slice of reality.

Does the document represent the whole story? No. Is the document invalid because it doesn't? No.

Here's a piece on that gang rape case from Cleveland, TX. The races of the accused and the victim are germane, how? The accused certainly seem to think they are.

So, let's return to the Duke lacrosse disaster. Was there a prejudicial profiling regarding the accused? I should think so. Was there insidious contrast? Why, yes.

Here's another case in point, the audio of Andre Carson lying to journalists about what happened when he crossed the Capitol grounds with other Black Caucus members prior to the signing of the HCR monstrosity. Democrats are still lying about ObamaCare, so why not?

Here's a piece on a piece claiming MN Republicans want to make it illegal for anyone on public assistance to have more than $20 in his pocket in any given month.

In a couple of these cases, there is actual bearing of false witness against the accused. In another, there's a comparison that someone finds offensive. I'm terribly sorry if I regard the bearing of false witness more offensive than the other.

In the instant case, involving Katrina, who was it that circulated the stories of cannibalism, because BOOOOOSH!? And why wasn't that much more offensively racist? Am I missing something here? Am I so blinkered?

Obama's lobbing cruise missiles into Libya, while making Soros-profiting oil deals in Brazil, where the US platform fleet will be able to perform some work offshore of what we are told is the most important ecosystem on the planet. Lots of for-real death threats are being thrown at lawmakers and even people who write newspaper letters to the editor in Wisconsin. Japan is reeling. New Zealand is still afflicted. Seriously, I don't know why Wolly bothers.

As regards the accusation that conservatives lack subtlety, I guess I could muster some folks outside of Chesterton, such as Dante, Ariosto, Shakespeare, Nashe, Samuel Daniels, Donne, Austen, Fielding, Sterne, Melville, Bierce, Flannery O'Connor, Flann O'Brien, and oddly enough Oscar Wilde, just for starters, as being in what some of us call the classical liberal tradition--or conservatism, if you prefer.

Ah, well. That's all stuff white people like.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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20Mar/112

No More Blood For Oil! IMPEACH BUSH NOW!

Recycled Pixels

Impeach Bushitler! Obamao!

In an effort to conserve pixels and to demonstrate POWIP's dedication to reducing our Pixel Footprint*TM, instead of spending the time re-writing on the topic of impeachment, we've decided simply to cut and paste from our good friends on the Left.

1. "A Crime Against Peace." Initiating a war of aggression against a nation that posed no immediate threat to the U.S.--a war that has needlessly killed [TBD] Americans and maimed and damaged over [TBD] more, while killing over [TBD] innocent Iraqi Libyan men, women and children, is the number one war crime according to the Nuremberg Charter, a document which was largely drawn up by American lawyers after World War II.

Also - in order to save the NYT some pixels and dollars, we offer the following (to be released within 3 weeks or so, we are sure):

NEW YORK TIMES March April 16, 200311 Anger on Iraq Libya Seen as New Qaeda Recruiting Tool

By DON VAN NATTA Jr. and DESMOND BUTLER ONDON, March 15

On three continents, Al Qaeda and other terror organizations have intensified their efforts to recruit young Muslim men, tapping into rising anger about the American campaign for war in Iraq Libya, according to intelligence and law enforcement officials. In recent weeks, officials in the United States, Europe and Africa say they had [will definitely] seen evidence that militants within Muslim communities are [will succeed in recruiting] seeking to identify and groom a new generation of terrorist operatives. [A pre-emptive War of Aggression] An invasion of[against Libya with no congressional Declaration of War]Iraq, the officials worry, is almost certain to produce a groundswell of recruitment for groups committed to attacks in the United States, Europe and Israel. "An American invasion of Iraq [Libya] is already being used as a recruitment tool by Al Qaeda and other groups," a senior American counterintelligence official said. "And it is a very effective tool." Another American official, based in Europe, said Iraq had become "a battle cry, in a way," for Qaeda recruiters.

IMPEACH BUSH NOW!

Enoch_Root

AKA. Bobby Donn Brubaker (the most popular man in Mesa, AZ), the Umbrella of Terror, Jack Ketch.

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20Mar/112

A Rule 5 Note and a Gallimaufrey of Links

William Teach, who does one of the best Rule 5 round-ups on the web each and every weekend, points out an issue and makes a offer:

BTW, with Smitty going to Afghanistan for a year, not sure if RS McCain will continue doing Rule 5 Sunday posts. He has his FMJRA (linked above), but????? The posts do take a long time, so, if you want to send me your links for Rule 5 babeage or links, use ye olde email (remove the NOSPAM part). Preferably, create the html link so I can copy and paste how you want it to read.

Now, I don't know whether Stacy wants to allow him to cross-post, as we haven't talked about it, but perhaps while Smitty's away, we can each take it in turn to assemble a weekend Rule 5 post.

******

A few days ago, I unfortunately forecast this happening:


Wisconsin Teacher With Long History of Depression Kills Herself, Lowlife Lefties Blame Scott Walker

Where? Here:

You mustn’t lay off any government workers, though, because if they suicide the blood will be on your hands. The same is true when they resort to crime.

*******

God told him to gain power of attorney, then beat the old man to death with a sock full of rocks.

*******

SEIU brought to court on racketeering charges by Sodexo (formerly Sodexho), blames Koch brothers.

Meanwhile, Blago-supporting pol Jan Schakowsky and her minons travelled to Milwaukee to lend her help to recall efforts against Republicans in Wisconsin. Look! Kochs!

Via William Jacobson, 2 of the Fleebaggers drafted the legislation Republicans relied on to pass anti-public union law.

********

Breaking: Andrew Sullivan still cannot bring himself to understand how poor his judgment is.

Stacy at AmSpec:

To which observation I replied:

True: The outrage is not "ubiquitous," but what are lefties like Michael Moore going to do? They got nowhere to go. They backed the most left-wing nominee in the Democratic Party's history - yes, Obama is further left than McGovern or Dukakis - and actually managed to get him elected. And the result is . . . ??

We're still in Iraq and Afghanistan. Guantanamo is still in business. Bradley Manning is stripped naked in solitary confinement. Now, another military adventure. You'd think that people who'd been so blatantly screwed over, bamboozled, sold out, ripped off and stabbed in the back would eventually wise up.

But then again: They're liberals.

Randall Jarrell once observed of liberals in the 1950s that "they would have swallowed a porcupine, if you had dyed its quills and called it Modern Art." Now we see that most of the anti-war Left will swallow even war, if you call it Human Rights -- and the president who wages it is a Democrat.

*******

New York Post writer performs same analysis on New Mexico's test scores as Iowahawk performed on Wisconsin's.

*******

I agree with Wolcott. We shouldn't be cruise missiling Libya. We should have taken that airline bombing son of a bitch out years ago in a wet job.

A: You've got violence in my sex! B: You've got sex in my violence!
Both: Mmmmmm!
Voice over: Two great tastes that go great together!

Yeah, I know it's illegal. Think Obama cares?

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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20Mar/112

Life in the Back Office

Yes, I'm working on a public union/public finance/Social Security post, but I've got something else right now about my own profession.

Over at this post, someone was asking about the actuarial profession. The main action is in the comment thread, and you can see that there is a huge amount of silliness going on, because I told some people at the Actuarial Outpost about it and we brought our in-jokes over. But they went away and I stayed to answer questions seriously.

One of the last questions I was asked was this:

Just one more questions actually, to what extent do you think being an actuary can help people?

So, here's the thing.

Actuaries tend to be very far removed from the beneficiaries of their work. We sit in cubicles, staring at computer screens. We wrangle with crap data. We have legacy spreadsheets we are trying to tame into something that gives us sane answers. We have proprietary database systems that create new bugs after 20 years of operation.... yay.

It can be a very isolating job. Many people find it very boring. The barrier to entry of the exams is rather high -- I've taught exam seminars and tried to help people with their frustrations of having to sit the same exams multiple times (and even tried helping people on exams I didn't teach). Then many people see that the math and concepts on the exams are way beyond what they have to implement at work, and don't see the intellectual challenge.

That's one perspective.

Here's another.

We've seen in a major way that risk exists. We're all going to die; it's just a matter of when. If you own stuff, that stuff can get destroyed or damaged and might need to be replaced. If you do stuff, something bad could happen, and you could get sued. It would be nice if there were ways that we could prepare for these risks, reduce the costs for preparing for these risks, and be able to count on that protection.

I work in the field of "Life", which means, of course, I'm concerned with death.

The types of products I look at are life insurance and annuities. Now modern versions of these products also have investment risk protections, but I'm going to focus solely on mortality/longevity risks. And I will look at these two products separately.

For life insurance, the main risk is that you'll die early, and people who depend on you will be bereft not only of your presence but also the financial support you had been giving. If things go to expectation, one could save money up while working, and then when one dies, there's a nice inheritance for these people. But what if, like my father, you die when you're 38? You didn't have enough time to save up anything.

So you need to protect against such early death. I'm not going to get into all the nasty details, but in general, the cheap life insurance coverage people get in term insurance (which is what I recommend for most people -- get term insurance, plus save up money. Past a certain age, you should have enough money saved to provide for beneficiaries and you will no longer need life insurance coverage. There are special situations, though, that may require something more complicated.)

So actuaries come in on two parts of this: setting the price (or premiums) and setting the reserves (and checking on capital).

Lots of things go into pricing, but the main thing is that the insurance company needs to be charging enough for the risk...otherwise, there's a pretty good chance the insurance company will go bust. And they did go bust pretty often early on in the history of insurance.

But then, we could just set really high prices, and that would be sufficient... but then the protection for your risk coverage wouldn't be worth it. This has also been in evolution over the ages. There are pricing swings (and again, I'm not going into the details here. But those interested in becoming actuaries, I can explain another time).

On the other side is reserving. This is setting aside money to cover the promises made. If prices are good, then adequate reserves can be set up (and adequate capital, which is the "extra" to cover adverse situations...like, say, a catastrophic earthquake/tsunami). Again, without reserves, chances can be good that the promises being made by the life insurance policy won't be fulfilled.

Obviously, insurance is a highly regulated industry. So actuaries are involved on the regulatory side. And also as auditors.

Actuaries are also involved in the design of these risk protection products.

So the whole point is that we are trying to help people reduce the financial impact of very real risks, by transferring these risks into affordable, regular premiums -- and setting it up so that you can depend on that protection being there. It took lots of disasters and failures, and a long time of developing the tools of actuarial science, for us to have a dependable insurance system. I've gone back and researched a lot of the 19th century insurance biz.... and it's ugly.

It can help to keep this big picture in your mind while you do your work. This is a very details-oriented profession (those details are very important); but this does not mean you cannot see how it contributes to helping people deal with risk better.

Yes, I've greatly simplified a lot of the issues, but that's what happens when you take the view from Mt. Everest. There is actuarial work other than life insurance, there are other risks and actuaries haven't always been that great at dealing with some of those risks in recent history (cf the failure of Equitable Life in the UK which resulted in a review of the profession there (hmm no wikipedia article on that), and their self-governance was taken away. The closest thing to that in the U.S., I think, is what's going on in public pensions.)

And someone else wrote the following:

reminds me of about schmidt where he sees all his work thrown in the garbage; yours will end up there also. 90% of actuarial work is meaningless.

I do the minimal amount of work and only extra if I find it interesting as a puzzle.

My response:

100 years from now no one will remember you either. So what?

The vast majority of people's work and lives have no lasting effect. Doesn't mean being a slackass is a great idea. If you want to be a slackass, then hey - go for it. But you're going to have a particular kind of career arc.

The stuff I talked about I found interesting. It was an intellectual challenge to me, I learned a lot, and I've gotten to reuse what I learned in a variety of places...leveraging it to all sorts of interesting things. I'm sticking my nose into other people's business all the time, which I know is annoying to these other people sometimes, but it has gotten me some of my most interesting projects and connections.

I find that opportunity rarely walks up to a person and shouts howdy... usually I have to hunt it down.

A lot of my work =has= been thrown out, in front of my face, while I was still there. I knew why it was thrown out, too. A lot of what we do is not for the ages.... but guess what? That's true of all professions. That's true of all human life. Very little lives on past us. This does not make it meaningless.

The point is to think of what is important to other people. How your small piece contributes to the wider world.

Here's an example from my working life: the last major project I worked on at TIAA-CREF was a portfolio segmentation. I'm not going to get into the details, but the point was that it was becoming difficult to "price" the retirement annuities so that annuity payments wouldn't get reduced. They hadn't reduced people's payments since the early 1990s. They knew the impact of people in retirement of lowering the amount being paid.... but you can't just increase or hold payments level if the money can't support it. TIAA has been around since 1918, and has always fulfilled its promises. They've got people who have had accounts with them for decades... people who get retirement income from them for over 40 years! We needed to figure out a way to be able to keep the payments up in a very challenging interest rate environment.

My piece of the project was but one of many. I cracked jokes that if I screwed up, no one would know for twenty years. But the way it would really work is that my part was just the starting point, and that this would be continually adjusted every year. There will be dozens of people who touch this to keep it going while this strategy is around. And who knows? Perhaps in 5-10 years, they'll do something different and what I did will no longer be pertinent. But maybe its effect will still be around 50 years from now, rolled up in the efforts of all these other people.

Finally, another way actuaries can help people is to explain these technical concepts of risk to help people make better decisions about it. To that end, I co-wrote an article with Benjamin Goodman on annuities, because not enough people are protecting themselves from outliving their savings.

So no, we're not saving lives. The people we help don't know our names (and we don't necessarily know theirs....but a big part of my job is checking over claims files. And that can get depressing.) And we won't be remembered long after we retire. But we do have some impact on people.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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20Mar/113

FBI Puzzled by Celebrity Hacking Pattern

"They're not doing it for money, they're doing it for the thrill."

Hackers have apparently gained access to private info -- nude photos and videos included -- of 50 celebrities, all of them female.

According to TMZ, victims include Vanessa Hudgens, Scarlett Johansson, Jessica Alba, Christina Aguilera, Ali Larter and Demi Lovato.

According to the site, the FBI has identified the ringleader of the hacker group, which was rumored to target politicians and sports figures. They apparently have active email addresses of 100 victims.

Yesterday, the FBI sat down for a chat with Hudgens, whose security may have been compromised by an acquaintance.

Other victims are said to include Busy Philipps, Miley Cyrus, Emma Caulfield, Addison Timlin and Renee Olstead (none of whom I know anything about, except for Cyrus).

An FBI investigator who wished to remain anonymous expressed puzzlement: "Why would someone want naked images of Miley Cyrus, when Rose McGowan and Alyssa Milano have active web presences? It just doesn't feel right. There's something odd about this, and we're going to get to the bottom of it."

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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19Mar/110

Valerie Plame Accepts New Creative Writing Assignments

Calling Iowahawk. Iowahawk, please come in.

Soon to be a major motion picture!

Former CIA operative Valerie Plame Wilson is turning to fiction writing more than three years after publishing a memoir about her career.

The New York Times reports that Wilson has a book deal with Penguin Group USA for a series of international suspense novels. The newspaper says she will team up with mystery writer Sarah Lovett on the books, which will feature a fictional operative.

Wilson tells the Times she's frustrated by portrayals of female CIA agents in popular culture that emphasize their looks rather than their brains.

Wilson's 2007 memoir, "Fair Game," told the story of her CIA career and her 2003 outing that led to the indictment of Vice President Dick Cheney's top aide, I. Lewis Libby. Her first fiction book is due out next year.

Poor Valerie. They should have given her more creative input.

But all of those edits make O'Keefe's NPR sting a right-wing libel, which is why those folks were fired and/or suspended.

I'm not a big fan of ambush journalism, but it has its uses, for example, when someone refuses to share information that the public has a right to know, or is dishonest about their perspective. I'm also not a fan of tendentious editing. I'm also not a fan of totalizing a complex argument and saying it is necessarily invalid because one aspect of it is.

Which is really why I haven't written about this. But if you feel you've got something to say about it, please feel free.

UPDATE: Let me add a few things.

Although I did wade through a lot of the leaked East Anglia Climategate emails, I occasionally resorted to stating that as an Occam's razor matter, the fact that much of their data was fudged by use of "proxy" locations was telling, and it was also telling that they wouldn't respond to FOI requests. In those emails, they also plotted at how to keep contrary views out of print, and in practice as peer reviewers did not disclose themselves as interested parties.

Here, O'Keefe does provide the raw data, in the form of the unedited tape. The point his interviewer makes about the relative lack of attention that that material has received, though, is valid, as his point about the excising of potentially exonerating material in the edited tape.

Take for example the publication of a Congressional study. If the executive summary of that material states outright that some party is guilty of something, and there turns out to be a lot of mitigating evidence in the body of the report, that's a distortion. I've complained about this practice with respect to now Supreme Court Justice Wise Latina.

NPR's interviewer tries to represent himself as being above the fray in stating at the end that his interview with O'Keefe is itself edited. Though I haven't listened to the whole thing, I imagine that among the material edited out of the interview is any discussion of whether the sacked fundraiser offered in fact to help hide the identity of the donating institution. Perhaps the interviewer didn't think that that information would be germane. To me, it seems it is.

The worst part is at the end, where he does an absolute cut and paste, to demonstrate how far media manipulation can go through convenient editing, though. Why? Because he insinuates that that is what O'Keefe's practice amounts to. It is one thing to make the argument that in kind these are the sorts of edits that O'Keefe practiced, but the logical fallacy (which is one that O'Keefe specifically addressed in the interview) is to consider that it is also valid in degree.*

In so doing, the interviewer commits the exact insinuation that he attributes to O'Keefe.

* I can hardly wait to read Valerie Plame's The Case of the Missing Stapler. See how that works?

UPDATE: Taranto: Civility was always already dead

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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