POWIP Piece of Work In Progress

31May/112

Weiner Thing Growing Legs

Yeah, they're skinny . . .

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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31May/116

Testy Weiner Grilled, Blows Vein

So, it was a hacker, then a staffer, then a person who wanted to prevent him from being able to focus on the important things.

What a liar.

All set luncheonette,
kitchenette to let
I bet to get hamburgerette again.

We met in a launderette and kissed beneath the air jet
No threat no sweat
Another one in the back of the net.

When I met Jeanette,
Substitute Ronette,
She said Will you remember?
Said I could never forget her
Au naturalette,
Her mom's a millionette
So we shared one last cigarette and swapped false addresses,
Jeanette,
Jeanette.

Dangerous
She's like damp dynamite
Oh boy, enjoy, have a nice night
Won't you promise to write me whenever you can
Make sure that you warn me if you're coming to Birmingham.

I met Jeanette
Substitute Ronette
She said Will you remember?
Said I could never forget her,
Jeanette
No no no I'll never forget you.

Touching your skin has proved one thing,
That love's still exciting.
We're getting there
We're nearly there
Just one final fling,
Pushing into a new love--steady deep and strong,
Steady on,
You know we shouldn't talk like this.

I met Jeanette
Substitute Ronette
She said Will you remember?
Said I could never forget you.
Au naturalette,
Her mom's a millionette
So we shared one last cigarette and swapped false addresses,
Jeanette

No no no I'll never forget you.
Jeanette
No no no I'll never forget you

Doug Ross: Time line of Congressional Trouser Snake's tweets

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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31May/111

YouTube Rife with Wiener Pranks

More.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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31May/110

Wisconsin’s GAB Approves All 6 Republican Recalls, Still No Democrats

TPM:

As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports, the board is postponing its decisions on the recalls targeting three Democrats, which were originally scheduled for today, citing strain on the board's bureaucratic resources posed by the sheer number of signatures and challenges that have been made. But Republicans are also protesting that decision:

"What the GAB has done is purely partisan and intended to discredit our recall," says a statement from Dan Hunt, who led the effort to recall Sen. Bob Wirch (D-Pleasant Prairie).

Shane Falk, an attorney for the board, said the board has been working overtime to review all the petitions, with half a dozen board employees working on them over the Memorial Day weekend. The board has also had to put in long hours because it just finished overseeing a recount in the April 5 race for state Supreme Court - the first statewide recount in more than two decades.

"We've attempted to work concurrently on all the petitions, but we simply don't have enough staff," Falk told the board.

Kloppenburg, ever gracious, concedes race to Prosser:

And now for the day that we've all been waiting for, it appears that JoAnne Kloppenburg finally got the memo that she was losing in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. She is expected to concede about this time today.

Kloppenburg had called for a recount after the election results showed he 7,000 votes behind incumbent justice David Prosser. This is just under the maximum vote percentage to allow a state-funded recount. Kloppenburg's campaign expected to gain votes in one particular country that never materialized.

Now Politico is reporting that Kloppenburg is going to leave the race, despite her earlier calls to continue the recount. This would leave the conservative/Republican faction on the Wisconsin Supreme Court with a majority. This will be important in the court case sure to follow regarding the public sector union law.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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31May/1115

#Weinergate: The Four-Second Minute Hack [Update: Now it's an unnamed staffer!]

I just want to focus for a moment on @RepWeiner's incredibly swift reaction to the alleged hack. Following a Twitter silence of 3 hours, 24 minutes, the infamous yfrog link gets sent from his account to the Comely Coed. During this time, according to a spokesperson for the Congressman, he's been absorbed in watching a hockey game.

4. After a public silence of 3 hrs, 24 mins, Weiner’s twitter account sends out the following public tweet:

@RepWeiner @(name redacted) http://yfrog.com/h25m3luj 13 hours, 59 minutes ago reply

This is the tweet with the lewd photo. No mention of TweetDeck, so it may have come from a cell phone with a camera that also tweets natively. The tweet went to the 21-year-old college student in Seattle, but not as a direct message (which is private). It went out on Weiner’s public twitter feed and remained there for about four minutes before it was removed, presumably by Weiner. One letter swap — a d in place of the second @ symbol — would have made the tweet a private direct message from Weiner to Cordova. (If Weiner took the photo and tweeted it to her and he happens to have had his computer running TweetDeck nearby, he could have accidentally sent the tweet publicly from his phone, and in a few minutes’ time seen it show up in his public feed, with mentions accompanying it).

Imagine the Congressman's surprise when he saw that message go out on his account! Within four seconds minutes, he's opened this tweet, read it, gone to the link, gasped, and removed the offending post, after somehow wresting the account away from the malefactor.

Truly, he is a God of Twitter.

"I escaped somehow. Let's go!"

By then, however, Weiner had sent several Twitter messages claiming that he was the victim of an Internet hacker, a claim elaborated Sunday in a statement from the congressman's spokesman: "Anthony's accounts were obviously hacked. He doesn't know the person named by the hacker, and we will be consulting on what steps to take next."

Can you guess what steps those would be? By Monday evening, Weiner had lawyered up, retaining an attorney to advise him on "what civil or criminal actions should be taken," the congressman's spokesman told Politico. Exactly why Weiner would need an attorney's advice in this case is unclear. As one blogger who has followed the scandal observed, it should be an easy fee for any competent lawyer: "Call the police. That will be $1,000."

UPDATE: Oh, so now it's a staffer! Is the left now apologizing to the right twerson that they were accusing?

I guess Iowahawk can call off the hounds.

UPDATE: Never mind: thanks to Bender Bending Rodriguez . . .

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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31May/111

Weiner Hack Becomes “Prank”

If someone hacked your wiener, would you dismiss it as a prank?

Will this wiener thing grow legs? Howard Kurtz is doing his darnedest to dismiss the possibility that there's anything to see here. I'm anxious to know how long I'm going to have to focus on dongs before I can get back to blogging about bewbs.

To give you a preview of what will be happening at Ace of Spades today, he was discussing some of the great pranks and pranksters of history on Twitter last night. For example, that incorrigible card, Vlad Tepes:

@moronpundit on Joe Stalin:

Remember what he said, "Killing one man is a prank, killing a million is a really awesome prank."

Variations on a Theme by William Carlos Williams

1

I chopped down the house that you had been saving to live in next summer.
I am sorry, but it was morning, and I had nothing to do
and its wooden beams were so inviting.

2

We laughed at the hollyhocks together
and then I sprayed them with lye.
Forgive me. I simply do not know what I am doing.

3

I gave away the money that you had been saving to live on for the next ten years.
The man who asked for it was shabby
and the firm March wind was so juicy and cold.

4

Last evening we went dancing and I broke your leg.
Forgive me. I was clumsy, and
I wanted you here in the wards, where I am the doctor!

The Pentagon says that cyberattacks can be acts of war. Don't be yankin' Yanks' cranks.

In the obfuscation department, Jeff has up an excellent post about some douchebag professor's contention that Constitutional Originalism is a danger to the post-Republic. What I want to know is why the real Shakespeare scholars (for example) in academe nod their heads when they hear this nonsense.

Congratulations to Da Techguy for his piece in the NY Post.

Has its own Memeorandum feed.

Bryan Preston compiles the known knowns in The Case of the Skinless Weiner.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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31May/113

Three Day Hangover Public Pensions, Unions, and Finance Roundup 31May2011

Others had their weenie roasts. I'm eating pork barbecue.

That's the way we North Carolinians do it.

(If I can find where Stu hid it in the fridge)

PEOPLE ARE GETTING OLDER AND THAT MEANS STUFF

Such as some people get less productive as they get older, and (warning: NYT link) get demoted, and they don't like that. I agree that it's not just a matter of age... lots of people just don't keep up, period. I am appalled at people my age, which isn't even 40 yet, who act like they've got nothing new to learn, and then are shocked to find they're not exactly a hot property on the employment market. I think it's a lifelong temperament, not a generational or age thing.

The greying of Maryland and Hawaii.

GREECE

Just a matter of when and how, not if: what will happen when Greece defaults. Yes, a little short-term prognostication (I consider a two-year horizon to be short term, myself. Look, when I consider public finance, long term is at least 50 years.)

Breaking news: the Greeks are unhappy. Beware of any large wooden horses on the horizon.

The Greeks didn't appreciate being called lazy by the Germans. Though they are. Amusingly, the "lazy Americans" have the same retirement age as Germans, and far less paid vacation.

And yes, they threw another fit. Let me know when that makes money magically appear, guys. It didn't the prior dozen...twenty?... times.

OUR ILLUSTRIOUS PUBLIC SERVANTS

IRS employees committing tax fraud. Well, hey, you'd think they'd be the experts. So yay them, I guess.

News flash: public employees lack accountability. Well, knock me over with a feather. Well, let's check out a couple examples.

Corrupt Californian ex-official strikes a plea deal on a felony charge. Keeps his pension.

A shrink for Milwaukee County manages to retire with backDROP bennies under a cloud of suspicion. "You can't discipline me! I quit! And give me my retirement shtuff!"

And another person who retired before being charged with anything. Lesson: if you do something questionable, be sure you're close to a legit retirement age.

GENERAL PENSION ISSUES

Getting all actuarial-ish on you for a moment: does market value of liabilities make sense for public pensions? This is coming from Segal, an actuarial consulting firm that does public pension work. I agree that there's really no such thing as "MVL" for public pensions... if anything, public plans need far more conservative assumptions due to the number of parties with different interests who need to be protected from politicians (namely, the workers, bondholders, and taxpayers). I'm thinking Treasury rates minus a spread to use as the discount rates. This is for balance sheet valuation of the liabilities, mind you, not figuring out how to fund them. There is a distinction there.

More actuarying: a Capitol Hill briefing on Social Security by the American Academy of Actuaries. An excellent run-down of the principles of the trade-offs and the reform choices. Take a look.

This doesn't really fit anywhere else, so I'm throwing it here -- odd consequence of shutting down the NASA Shuttle program: having to pay off pension costs of private subcontractor.

CALIFORNIA

Great investment: Arizona land sells for 8% of its original sale price. Calpers was one of the investors.

San Marcos: pension consultant recommends town to boost pension contribution even higher than Calpers requirement.

The ongoing San Fran pension scrum: trying to keep Adachi from running his own, stiff proposal.

Yes, people do understand what happens when you've got "tiers" of pensions, and you especially get a generational divide. The younger guys aren't going to give a crap what happens to the retirees with the cushier benefits. There will be no solidarity.

Gifts to state pension officials under investigation. This will be interesting, I'm sure.

Daniel Borenstein asks for an honest accounting of Calpers plans. Let us know how that goes.

GEORGIA

Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed directly calls for pension reform. Yes, the debate is rather heated.

ILLINOIS

Low-hanging fruit: high pensions for politicians. Let's just whack it. The base assumption should be they're all base. I know John Adams could probably be a perpetual motion source at this point to see what "public servants" are, but he saw the Lee boys in action back in the day, so none of this should be new to him. [there are some excellent comments on this piece]

Did you know that Illinois is having trouble paying its regular bills? Again? The Repubs aren't allowing $6B (yes, billion) in borrowing to cover the the backlog (but it looks like quite a few Dems voted against it, too), to force the issue.

Even the state treasurer has gotten into the game, saying he is going to make borrowing more expensive for the state by asking rating agencies to downgrade state debt (that's not what it says explicitly, but read between the lines), to try to make the legislators a little more responsible and cut spending. (Okay, it is more complicated than that -- but the point is to make new debt issues more difficult for the state, and that includes rolling over debt.) Isn't public finance fun?

Sharing the pain: Chicago retirees will see a 15% hike in their health premiums. And they begin to see that an unfunded liability is not just a danger to taxpayers (and bondholders), but also to the people who were promised something.

Speaking of unfunded liabilities (and their causes), I would like you to consider the following report from the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. I draw your attention to Appendix M, at the bottom of page 104 which shows the total for the 5 Illinois state-funded pension plans -- a breakdown of the sources of the unfunded liability change over the period from 1996-2010:

  $Billion Percentage
Salary losses 0.7 1%
Investment losses 11.7 20%
Employer contribution

shortfall

24.7 43%
Benefit increases 5.8 10%
Changes in assumptions 3.5 6%
Other (spike) increases 10.6 19%
Total 57.0 100%

Now, that's not the full unfunded liability, by the way, but about 2/3 of it. That's merely the increase over 15 years... and the largest percentage is due to (begin EDIT:) "employer contribution shortfall" - as noted by Bill Zettler in the comments, this is mostly coming from interest on the already accrued unfunded liability not being covered...but the main point is the pension not being funded when the liability is being accrued, more than the investments going south (end EDIT). In short, these plans have been systematically underfunded for at least 15 years, and while yes, crappy investments did a number on the fundedness, you have to actually stick some cash in there from time to time, and the pols were loathe to do that.

I think you will find in many of the cases of the worst-funded plans across the country that the reason almost always has been underfunding as opposed to only investment problems....though there are wacky investment things going on at various points, but I'll save that for a different time.

In any case, this is why the pols in Illinois are actually working together to pass pension reforms, over the objections of the public unions who had good reason to think they had bought the pols.

But according to the report linked above, the combined plans are less than 40% funded, so political contributions can't keep fiscal reality from hitting Springfield. The unions have got to realize the three options being offered are what they have to work with: keep current benefits but have to pay more for them; don't pay more but get less in benefits; or get thrown to the DC wolves. Make your choice, guys.

But wait! Unions win! They make the pols put off a reform til fall. I don't know if I'd call that a win, guys. As Marc Levine says, you may regret this. The choices may become more harsh as the state's finances deteriorate. Cook County employees are seeing furlough days, and I bet there's going to be more fiscal pain shared ith public employees before this is over. And don't expect a federal bailout... remember who holds the purse strings now.

So what were the Illinois pols doing instead of fixing the pension mess? Betting on casinos.

KANSAS

Gentlemen, ready your lawsuits! The employees of Illinois may wish to look at what is going on in Kansas as employee groups there seek to sue over a law that intends to force employees to either contribute more to their pensions or receive less in benefits. Though this involves COLAs alone it seems, and not the general benefits.

MICHIGAN

Biggest change to tax code: taxability of pensions.

I still think it's dumb. Who the hell wants to retire to Michigan in the first place? Great way to drive people away even more, dumbasses.

Emergency finance manager stirring debate.

NEVADA

Double-dipping law under fire. Unlike most states, "double-dipping law" here means a law that allows for public employees to collect pension payments and also remain public employees. In most places, it's a law to preclude such behavior.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Negotiations ongoing.

OREGON

Pension reform poops out.

PENNSYLVANIA

After all that work to get the numbers to dance, the state may end up taking over the Pittsburgh pensions after all. Well, expecting money to magically appear was never much of a plan.

RHODE ISLAND

The governor is getting a bit tetchy that the treasurer has all the press over the awful state of RI pensions. Dude, just let her have the issue. There's not going to be a huge amount of glory there.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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30May/116

What To Do When Your Package Goes Viral

See a doctor. Lawyer up. Because nobody can get to the bottom of who hacked your account and defamed you like a bunch of lawyers.

Maxine Waters doesn't want to talk about her ethics investigation. It's a distraction, and probably Andrew Breitbart's fault.

Also engorged: Lake Champlain.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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30May/112

Memorial Day, 2011

An excuse for most to enjoy an extra day off of work.   For many, a reason to get together with friends and family a share a pleasant afternoon " grillin' and chillin' ".  And to others who are blessed to live at or near the seashore, as I do, it marks the official beginning of summertime...

These are all wonderful pursuits, and it's my wish that everyone enjoy the day to the utmost.

But I also would ask that we all take a moment to consider what the motivation for this holiday really is; a day to remember the men and women who have paid the ultimate price to safeguard and preserve our freedoms here at home.  Few said it as well as President Reagan in 1982; I recommend you take a moment to read the short passage.

And, as honored, and flattered, as I am when folks offer me their regards and thanks for service on this day, I confess that I also have to take a moment to politely clarify that Memorial day is not intended to honor me, a humble use-ta-be; that's the motivation behind Veterans day...

No indeed, it's to honor what every use-ta-be will tell you are the real heroes; the warriors they served with who left it all on the battlefield; who gave the fullest measure of devotion when duty called and their nation needed them.  To those who gave all of their tomorrows, to ensure that we could enjoy ours.

So in the course of today's festivities, I ask that you take a moment to remember them all; to perhaps drink a toast in their memory.

And if you're so inclined to pray, join me now:

Father in heaven, we pray that You pull close to you the souls of all who have sacrificed themselves in order to protect us all here at home.  We thank You for seeding such people amongst us; for gracing ordinary folk the extraordinary courage, strength, poise, and resolve to do so in the moment when it is absolutely necessary.  And we thank You for gracing their surviving loved ones with all they need to carry on with their lives.

And, Dear God, please continue to watch over the young men and women who are far from home, at the tip of the spear, on this day. God bless them and keep them. Keep Your face turned toward them. Protect them with Your strong right hand; let no weapon formed against them prosper.  Father we pray that when their individual tours of duty are done that they can come home to live and prosper amidst the love of their families and friends for many years to come.

And that in Your time, there will be an end to war for us all. In Jesus' name...

Happy Memorial day to all. May God bless you all, and may He continue to bless the United States of America.

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30May/111

Memorial Day

It was something we did every year, my father and I. I would call him, and when he answered would say, “Well, I’d wish you a happy Memorial Day. But it’s not really happy, now is it.”

“No, son. No, it’s not.”

My father occasionally talked about serving in World War Two and Korea, of missions flown and friends lost. He spoke of the missions freely. The friends? Not so much. The decades may have dulled the pain, but they could never take it away.

Which was as it should be, really.

God bless those who served and never came home.

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