POWIP Piece of Work In Progress

23May/112

Priceline Prepares for Life After Shatner

Introducing a character named "Naomi Pryce." Apparently played by a young woman named Sacheen Padilla.

Breaking: Will Folks claims to have been bedded by Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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23May/112

Audio of Deadly Tornado That Struck Joplin, Yesterday

killing at least 89 people.

Yeah, it's video, but there's not a lot to see. Via Patrick Madrid.

When they're in the eye of the tornado, some of them think it's over, but the winds on the back end are actually worse than on the leading edge.

Via @iowahawkblog . . . American Red Cross in Joplin, MO

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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23May/115

So, Dan . . . What’s Going On?

Crappiest. rapture. EVAH.

Crapture.

I spent yesterday cleaning this place. I had invited Dahlhalla and Anthony Bialy over here from Middlebury, where she was playing, for a cookout, but they had to catch a train early this morning back to NYC, so I went down there and had a few pints with them.

Place was a wreck. Spring comes late around here, so you could consider it a spring cleaning, I guess. I found out kind of early that they wouldn't be coming here, but I pretended otherwise. Moved everything in the kitchen and cleaned down all the surfaces, gathered up all the paper and cardboard to recycle, washed a bunch of clothes, put the winter gear away, swept, mopped, scrubbed, put down some carpet deodorant and vacuumed. The works.

The daughter is a rebellious teenager. The form this rebelliousness takes is organization and practicality. She hates living in a messy house, though I must say she's much more interested in straightening up and maintaining her room than any of the common areas. She seems to believe also that cleaning up the kitchen is the task of whoever happened to cook, which is never her. Not trusting anyone else to properly treat her laundry, she does that herself . . . but only hers.

Anyway, she was delighted at the thought of being able to invite her friends over. Not that she would. She prefers to go to her friends' homes, where there are large-screen hi-def TVs, hot tubs, and all that sort of thing. It's just the thought that she could that makes her happy.

Saturday, I did some investigation of Android tablets. My 25th wedding anniversary is coming up, and I'd like to buy something nice for Mare. There's one that's a color e-Reader I could get very cheaply. She loves to read books. It doesn't have Bluetooth, but an inexpensive dongle would fix that. Then she could use a Bluetooth keyboard and mouse or trackpad to type on the thing. Syncs up with the Mac, too.

Had a really good time meeting Anthony and Dahlhalla. Talked about music and a bunch of other stuff. The City, Vermont, politics, the intarwebz, CPAC. You name it. Just really nice people, and awfully laid back for New Yorkers. They said they had trouble sleeping because of the lack of ambient noise.

The guy who connected Dahlhalla up with the folks in Middlebury moved to San Antonio last year. For a long time, he conducted the Vermont Youth Orchestra. He's originally from Dahlhalla's home town. A few years ago, he was the graduation speaker at the Waldorf high school that Mary works at.

Anthony blogs at a couple of places, one being Pundit League, where I did a short stint, until the editor stopped responding to my emails. Sounds like the project is going well, anyway.

Lady Gaga's latest album, "Born This Way," is Amazon's Gold Box deal of the day, at 99 cents. Seven cents a song seems a little steep to me.

One of the things we talked about was what a good topic would be for a conservative opera. Ideas?

Feedly's flaking out on me. I guess I'll have to use Google Reader till I get that sorted out.

So, what'd I miss?

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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23May/116

Her-man “is My Man” Cain

Herman Cain

decent bio here

I guess I owe some explanation as to my choice.

He campaigns as a successful businessman and turnaround artist: At 31, he joined The Pillsbury Co. and rose to vice president within three years. He then turned his attention to Burger King, a Pillsbury subsidiary at the time, transforming 400 underperforming stores in the Philadelphia area into the best-performing region in the country. Next, he joined Godfather’s Pizza as CEO and president, taking it from the edge of bankruptcy to profitability in 14 months. He and investors eventually bought the pizza chain.

Romney - just can't do it. He's too slick, too much of a playa, too much of an insider, and well he'll never be able to get around his Mass state Romneycare. I would lie if I didn't say I don't think I can vote for a Mormon. Just being honest.

Newt - just can't go back to this retread. Further, he is impossibly damaged. In addition, it's not possible to market a guy with that name. Too easy to lampoon. Some of it well earned. He is starting to smell like John McCain to me. No thanks.

Ron Paul - I like Libertarians in general. They make decent company most of the time. But this guy makes me look mainstream and that's a little bit spooky.

Santorum - I like Santorum a great deal, but he is unelectable.

Pawlenty - I don't know anything about Pawlenty. That's a major problem in and of itself.

Christie - Love him, but I don't think he's going to run this time around. If he did, I would have to really look closely at who to throw my support behind.

Ryan - not quite ready for prime time. Absolutely brilliant and a great orator. But he's not quite ready in my mind. Though experience doesn't really seem to matter any longer.

Enoch_Root

AKA. Bobby Donn Brubaker (the most popular man in Mesa, AZ), the Umbrella of Terror, Jack Ketch.

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22May/113

Sunday Chillin’ Public Pensions, Finance, and Unions 22May2011

Sippin' on tea, the kids watching Dangermouse....got a little too much sun yesterday which doesn't mesh well with someone as pale as I.

Yeah, I'm logy.

But these posts pretty much write themselves, don't they?

PUBLIC FINANCE AND THINGS FALL APART

Greek bonds downgraded (warning: NYT link), and not by a little -- Fitch dropped them down three notches, which is a rather large movement. Sure, they were already in the junk range, but still. Things aren't going well there, and for all the whining over DSK's troubles being behind this -- no. Greek's clusterfark (attendant with pro-sucking-on-govt-teat-"anarchists") has nothing to do with Mr. Strauss-Kahn's belt issues, for all we'd like to say "entitlement" yadda yadda yadda. Even without DSK, this crap would have happened.

Reality hits Spain as well, as its social welfare system is unsustainable. I find it interesting how Socialists are in charge when the culmination of their systems have hit a demographic wall....and people get sour as the promises can't be fulfilled. Can get dangerous as other populists try to ramp up the promises, which are still undeliverable, sorry. You can't create 30-year-olds from thin air. Except in sci-fi novels.

Let's not get too uppity about European social welfare programs. Ignoring the whole "adult baby" brouhaha this week, there's something more structural awry given we are paying benefits for dead people in significant amounts.

From the WSJ, Jason Zweig writes why holders of U.S. Treasury bonds should be concerned about the possibility of different kinds of default. I think everyone is going to get a lesson in what structural default, technical default, outright default, etc. are in very short order. Bondholders should already know about this, but I'm sorry to say that those holding government bonds are not necessarily the most sophisticated of investors.

Uncertainty is what makes muni bond buyers bonkers

Joe Mysak calls Meredith Whitney to task about the very specific predictions she made re: municipal bonds, as Whitney goes to the pages of the WSJ to remind people that the muni armageddon is still to come, and that, yes, there are many ways to default. Going back to Mysak, I'm pulling this quote:

In the modern era, there is little to suggest that serious public officials will shirk their duty to bondholders.

AH HA HA HA. "serious public offiials" Owie. Oh my side. Yeah. Serious public officials. You mean the ones who fashioned the back-DROP benefits? Those serious public officials? The ones who "funded" the plans with pension obligation bonds? Are those the serious public officials we're talking about? Do tell.

UNIONS SHTUFF

Right-to-work to make inroads into New England?

Unions remind Dems who's the boss. Or they hope they do. Dems may realize the unions are outnumbered by other voters at this point in history. But hey, cutting off the money can hurt.

How do unions affect state budgets? The duh conclusion:

“The main differences between public and private sector come from economics,” said Norcross. “Private sector unions can raise their wages, but not their employment. By contrast, public sector unions can increase both wage and employment outcomes.”

Well, yeah, in the short run. But when fiscal reality hits, you can get a massive readjustment of those outcomes, as in Costa Mesa, California. Recently, after looking into a budget abyss, the city council laid off nearly half the current city workforce and outsourced their functions. And note, that doesn't mean a 1-to-1 replacement of jobs. And definitely not necessarily a replacement with a union job. Funny how assumptions can get altered in a hurry when reality hits and the money runs out. Rent-seekers have to be careful, otherwise they create their own destruction.

GENERAL PENSION ISSUES

U.S. Postal Service warns of potential default on retiree obligations

After all the fun beating up on state workers and their benefits, it's the federal workers' turn to become punching bags! And then a guy whose main constituents are federal workers objects! Shocker! Another shocker: federal employees aren't happy about it. I like how people mention that cutting benefits will make government jobs less attractive, as if that's a bad thing.

National teachers union realizes that spiking and double-dipping makes them (and DB pensions) look bad, so they say that it should be looked into.

ALABAMA

Finally. Pensioners in bankrupt Prichard have gone almost 2 years without payments, and there may be a deal on the table. They will probably never get their full promised benefits, but at least it's not zero.

CALIFORNIA

The Golden State Blues: George Will on how it fell apart in California

Request for investigation into disability pensions in that cesspit of government corruption, Bell, Calif.

It's going to be an interesting November in San Fran as Mayor Ed Lee says he's putting a pension reform proposal on the ballot with or without union agreement. Other groups have their own competing proposals they intend to get on the ballot.

Capitola working on lowering pension costs ahead of contract negotiations in 2012. Watsonville looking at its own costs. Ventura County has some eye-popping numbers itself. It's like it's some sort of widespread problem or something.

Steven Greenhut says yeah, it's kind of a widespread problem. And while it may look puny compared to the state budget, it's outsize for local budgets.

Seeking to cut down on pension spiking

ILLINOIS

So there's a lot of politicking going on in Illinois re: pension reforms. And, surprise surprise, there are dirty tricks. Some stuff on the actual bill under consideration.

Rahm was sworn in as Chicago's non-Daley mayor. Can he deal with the fiscal issues, and the pension problem in particular?

Consultant says retirees should pay more for their health benefits.

KANSAS

Pension reform bill goes to governor, but questions linger about to what limits reform can be taken.

MICHIGAN

Emergency financial manager's blanket powers in Benton Harbor bring spotlight and cries of oppression.... oppression of the fiscally inept. Poor babies.

Detroit Mayor Bing proclaims that there are savings in pension contributions because they changed the smoothing period for actuarial losses.... but no. No there aren't. Changing the method of funding the pensions doesn't change the cost of the pensions. You have to change the actual pension benefits to change their costs.

MINNESOTA

Minneapolis pension tension - two closed funds taking an outsize portion of the city budget, and an attempt to fold them into state funds. Minneapolis contribution to these funds would drop a great deal if this occurred.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Negotiations on pension reforms continue. Both groups agree that public employees should work longer, contribute more to pensions, and for most plans, receive lower benefits. They're just wrangling over details now.

NEW YORK

Will Cuomo truly fix pensions? Let's ask Magic 8 Ball: My sources say no. Changing stuff for new hires does really nothing other than prevent problems from getting worse by too much.

Well, DiNapoli goes for some low-hanging fruit, preventing double-dipping, but that's not really going to save a bunch of money. But double-dipping doesn't make for good PR.

In pensions corruption news, Liberal Party ex-boss Ray Harding avoids jail time.

OHIO

A proposal to yank the pensions of corrupt pols -- I say let's be proactive. No pensions for any pols.

OKLAHOMA

Pension reform bill signed by governor

PENNSYLVANIA

Pittsburgh may have gotten over their math problems, but they still have huge fundedness issues with their pension plan and are trying to avoid being taken over by the state. Still. At some point, you'd think they'd just give up.

RHODE ISLAND

Something to look forward to: a report to be released on Monday by the state treasurer on just how much Rhode Island pension systems suck (just being a psychic here). A think tank already has put out its own report on the suckitude.

How much do they suck? The per capita debt is $30K.

TENNESSEE

Legislature passes bill to curb teachers unions, stripping them of most collective bargaining rights.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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22May/116

Mitch Daniels’ won’t run in 2012

Say goodbye to Mitch the Knife...

Or as they say in Brooklyn, Fuhgeddabowditt:

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels told supporters in an email early Sunday that he will not run for president in 2012, a decision he said ultimately came down to his family’s reticence about a campaign.

"In the end, I was able to resolve every competing consideration but one," Daniels said, disclosing his decision in an e-mail to supporters. "The interests and wishes of my family, is the most important consideration of all. If I have disappointed you, I will always be sorry."

"His Family's reticence?

As he weighed a bid, the spotlight shown on his unusual marital history as well.

His wife, Cheri, filed for divorce in 1993 and moved to California to remarry, leaving him to raise their four daughters in Indiana. She later divorced, and she and Daniels reconciled and remarried in 1997.

So I'm getting the feeling that "Mitch the Knife's" wife won't let him come out to play because she doesn't want to have to answer for, or explain, her embarrasing fling; nor does she want to have Mitch face the continuous questioning on the matter.

Because, really, her comfort and pride is more important than the fix our nation is in...

Let me be very clear about this.  I admire the Coolidge-like Daniels' accomplishments, and think that he would have had a good chance to either win the nomination or at the very least push the debate in a direction it needed to go.  This development is perplexing.  It's not a case where  his family's finances are being bled dry by never ending gratuitous lawsuits, like Sarah Palin had to face.  And frankly speaking, being a man with a long and distinquished record of accomplishements, Daniels probably wouldn't have had to face the same level of accusatory questioning and charges of hypocrisy that Palin endured because of Bristol's status as an unwed mother.

No, this really seems that it's all because his wife doesn't want to have to dance to the tune she punched into the juke-box-so to speak-nor have it continually brought up to Mitch, or her daughters,either. So, you know, America can go scratch I guess...

On the one hand I respect Mitch for thinking about family first, though I have to admit that one embarks on a life of service, at any level, realizing the sacrifice and scrutiny that it will necessarily entail.  And for the life of me, I don't know why Mitch wouldn't just take a page from the Obama playbook on this and call any such questions "distractions" and just refuse to talk about them; and challenge any persistent journalist to explain why Obama gets a pass and he doesn't.  I mean, they'd have to accept that kind of response, right?

I don't mean to come off as unfair or overly critical/judgmental on this revolting development. But I have to say that even suspecting that I'm watching Daniels being "whipped" is uncomfortable.

What do you think? Am I being unfair? Was Daniels even a viable Candidate? Is he doing the right thing by turning his back on the race in order to avoid spotlighting his marital issues from 15 years ago?

As always, kind reader, I'm interested in your insight and opinions.

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21May/110

Muslim Culture vs German Engineering

All the kids were emailing this to one another. So if you've seen it, I apologize. I used to be more hip.

Other thing that is clever...like a fox in a dark way.

More things funny in my kids' browser history.

A really excellent artist I stumbled upon.

Enoch_Root

AKA. Bobby Donn Brubaker (the most popular man in Mesa, AZ), the Umbrella of Terror, Jack Ketch.

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20May/111

The picture is worth a thousand words, May 21 edition

Specifically, from the political apocalypse folder:

Newt, remember the first rule of holes...

Presented without need for my comment...

On a related note, our pal Jeff Goldstein at Protein Wisdom shares his thoughts on why a prominent Democrat like Chuck Schumer, along with all of the professional left-wing commentariat, would suddenly be going out of their way to criticize the GOP response to his controversial remarks of the last week. It seems that suddenly Gingrich, who's name usually was paired with the adjective "extremist" in the past, is now being hailed as "moderate" and "pragmatic".

You don't think they're trying to pick our candidate for us, do you?

(H/T Darleen Click in the comments)

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20May/1117

Attention Deprived Tool Breaks It Down (updated with exit question)

It looks like Dan is going to have a long day of live blogging ahead of him starting tomorrow morning at about 2:00 am (EDT), because Christians will start floating away, time zone by time zone, at that time.  Not only has he narrowed the rapture down to the day, but he's got it down to the hour; 6 pm everywhere, time zone by time zone.  This is just awesome, because now we here in CO get to watch the rapture happen in Europe and our own east coast before it happens here.

I'll be jumping off my roof at 5:59:59 pm, and praying God has taken daylight savings time into account.  He wouldn't forget about that, would He?

Update:  Exit question:  If he's truly sincere with this belief, exactly how shaken will his faith be when he's wrong?

Adam Wells

Living life at 84 mph and 7000 feet. All I ask is that you don't block traffic, act like a professional, and don't act all surprised when your actions have consequences. Oh, and don't complain about the refs; trust me, they don't care if your team wins or not.

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Filed under: God Bothering 17 Comments
20May/112

Vermont Weather

Yesterday, the sun broke through the clouds, temperatures soared into the mid-seventies, and this corner of Vermont began to dry out. Last night, it seems, it rained again all night.

I took a peek at the weather forecast for the next ten days, and was distressed to find that there were clouds depicting rain in all ten panels. True, twice the forecast likelihood of precip was only 30%, but there were also panels that showed angry lightning bolts and predicted thunderstorms. It's a plus that the panels all show temps in the low- to mid-seventies, but even that can be uncomfortable when the air is supersaturated.

As I mentioned earlier this week, between the runoff from the heavy snows this past winter and the wet spring, there's been a lot of erosion. The road crews have been busy everywhere, to the point where one's alternate alternate alternate route proves to be under construction, too. I tried to get out to Button Bay State Park yesterday, found it closed, and went to the DAR Park only to find the same. I imagine that they figure it's hazardous near the water, or that they don't want people walking on the trails in their present condition.

Low-lying fields are underwater, and impromptu ponds of standing water have appeared in people's lawns. Driveways washed out. A lot of trees got blown down in the late fall and winter, when high winds drove in from the north, and that means that there's less in some spots to hold the soil to the ground as deer paths become streamlets. Generally, the flowing waters here in Vermont are pretty clear, but as they're headed out to dump in Lake Champlain, they're a milk-chocolate brown. Can't imagine that's a good thing for some of the spawning fish to try to make their nests in.

Anyway, if any of those thunderstorms are intense, Vermonters can anticipate some flash flooding, I think. I'm a big fan of thunderstorms, but I hope that doesn't happen.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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