POWIP Piece of Work In Progress

16May/110

What’s Going On in the Blago Retrial?

Our good friend and reporter from Chicago, Tom Bennett, has been following the trial closely. What's interesting this time (even more interesting than last time), is who Fitzgerald and company aren't calling to testify. After the mistrial, I'd noted that Fitzy was trying very hard surgically to limit the scope of the investigation. This time, he introduced an in limine motion to prevent the trial including such people as . . . get this . . . whoever from his office leaked to the Chicago papers that Blago was under investigation and wiretapped regarding the attempted sale of Obama's Senate seat.

As opposed to, say, Judith Miller.

That tip-off prevented Blago from making an appointment for cash deal with Jesse Jackson, Jr. or anyone else . . . such as Valerie Jarrett. Remember that on getting wind of the investigation, Obama quickly decided to appoint her to the White House staff, where she appears to have more clout than Rahm did.

There's more background there, too, regarding Obama and his posse and what appears to be Fitzy's maneuvering and information management on their behalf.

Latest testimony regarding Jesse Jackson, Jr. was covered a few days ago at the Sun-Times, here. Naturally, none of this stuff is of any interest to the national media.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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16May/115

Vermont-Related Stuff, Mostly

I'm not going to unfold my disgust at Disney's move to trademark "SEAL Team 6." I figure I ought to leave that to Bob.

After a couple of nice days last week, including Friday and some of Saturday, with clear skies and highs reaching the low- to mid-sixties, rain settled in. The skies lowered down to where they cover the tops of some of the closer hills around here, only a few hundred feet higher than the 500 or 600 foot elevation I suppose Monkton's at. Probably peaked at about 52 degrees, today.

Driving up to Burlington to pick Aidan up from a school trip this evening in the gloaming, there were a few spots along the way where the rising waters of wetlands are threatening to cover the roads. Yesterday, I wanted to go to a mushrooming spot that I know of in a gorge, because the steepness of the slope prevented the area from being logged the last go-round, and I was searching for morels, which are often associated with decaying elms. The road sign said ROAD CLOSED on one end, but I knew that on the other it said ROAD CLOSED TO THROUGH TRAFFIC, which is Vermontese for CAUTION. I went down the hill about half a mile, the road running parallel to the gorge, and found that there was in fact a section that was entirely washed out. There's been a big pile of gravel at the other side, the bottom, for over a month now. I guess it's not an urgent matter to the road crews, still dealing with the effects of the major spring melt and subsequent rains. I had to back up a half a mile, there not being any good place to execute a 10-point turn.

I'm headed to Snake Mountain, south and a little west of here tomorrow. The reason I'm going is that there are still some live elms there. In fact, the live elms of Vermont may be the key to restoring elms in the US. You certainly know that in the first decade of the 20th century, the beetles that carried Dutch elm disease arrived in Massachusetts in a shipment of furniture from the Netherlands. They spread to destroy almost all the live elms in the US. Now, American elms are tetraploids, genetically speaking. Polyploidy often gives plants an advantage, but not in this case. It was rumored that there was such a thing as a diploid elm, and triploid crosses. The diploid elms were found here, with the greatest concentration, for whatever reason, on Snake Mountain.

Today, I walked into the woods in one of my regular stalking places, a typical Vermont forest. Which is to say, like most of the wooded land in the state, it was clear-cut twice. The first great cutting helped fuel building in the then-burgeoning cities of the Northeast. Much of the land in Vermont is pretty hardscrabble, and that opened it up for sheep grazing. There are some Vermont parklands where the trees date to after the first clear-cut, but not many. I think a lot of the second clear-cut was pulped or charcoaled, or just used as firewood.

I was getting shut out in there, and had decided to head for the car, because it had gotten so humid from the downpour that I could hardly see through my glasses, when I encountered a large mushroom. I thought, that's a hen-of-the-woods. Then I thought, it can't be, in May. I picked as much as would fit into the basket I'd brought, and researched it when I got home. It's what's known as a Black-Staining Polypore. It's young enough that I think I can use all of it (they tend to get woodier and tougher when they're older). Well, I can't find any recipes, but I figure I'll make a mushroom stock out of it, once it gets dry enough to clean. There are no Northeast polypores that are poisonous, so I figure it's worth a try.

I love it when people photograph mushrooms in situ.

Hmmm. Saw a fire newt and a dark-feathered hummingbird today, too. But I'm looking forward to this weekend, when the rain's finally supposed to end and the temps to get into the seventies. Supposed to be nice next week, too. That will give the lowlanders downstream some time to dry out.

Out walking today, I realized that you can sing the lyrics to the Beach Boys' "Little Deuce Coop" to the tune of Neil Young's "Welfare Mothers (Make Better Lovers)," which is odd but strangely satisfying.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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16May/110

Mini-Ace of Spades Discovered in Indonesia; Small Band of Eco-Criminals Populated Americas

Because it's SCIENCE!

A team led by a Texas A&M University anthropologist has discovered a group of primates not seen alive in 85 years. The pygmy tarsiers, furry Furby-like, or gremlin-looking, creatures about the size of a small mouse and weighing less than two ounces, have not been observed since they were last collected for a museum in 1921.

Several scientists believed they were extinct until two Indonesian scientists trapping rats in the highlands of Sulawesi accidentally trapped and killed a pygmy tarsier in 2000.

Bury My Heart at Asian Land-Bridge, by Pleistocene Beaver:

Professor Hey, of Rutgers University, was quoted in Live Science as saying his method favoured 'actual genetic data over estimates used in previous calculations'.

He said: 'The estimated effective size of the founding population for the New World is about 70 individuals.'

Archeological evidence supports his calculation that the initial settlement of North America occurred between 12,000 and 14,000 years ago.

He said: 'The beauty of the new methodology is that it uses actual DNA sequences collected from Asian peoples and Native Americans, an approach that can provide a detailed portrait of historical populations.

In honor of Huckabee dropping out (I'm looking at you, Romney), the Ford Huckster, the first "Woody," designed for travelling salesmen to show off their wares: china, kitchenware, brushes . . . whatever.*

Apparently, the term didn't have it's negative connotations at the time, though I think the development of those might have preceded Huckabee.

I love the lozenge window. I think I read somewhere that they had "isinglass windows that could roll right down," in case of a change in the weather.

* It could be fitted out with a midget stripper pole.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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16May/111

Newt Gingrich Gives Pat Buchanan Competition

Strikes early to nail down his 1.5% core demographic: idiots.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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16May/113

Don’t Forget Marizela Perez

Marizela Perez, cousin of political writer Michelle Malkin, has been missing since March fifth. She was last seen in Seattle, where she was attending school. There's more information about the case and her at FindMarizela.com.

A video whiz I am not, but I put together the clip below as my contribution to keeping the case out there. Please share it with people you know. Thanks. (The song is "Missing Persons" by the Kinks.)

(Video at Goldfish and Clowns)

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16May/110

Syrian-Venezuelan Alleged Drug Kingpin Extradited from Colombia

Borderland Beat, where you'll get all the news J-Nap wants to suppress:

Colombia's extradition of alleged cocaine kingpin Walid Makled has Venezuelans asking about the huge payments he claims to have made to close associates of President Hugo Chavez and opposition leaders are demanding answers.

The allegations, lingering doubts and inquiries about millions of dollars in payments purportedly made to government officials and military officers has prompted the independent media to nickname him "Venezuela's Deep Throat."

Opposition leaders are asking if Chavez was aware of alleged dirty dealings, how Makled amassed a fortune estimated at roughly $1 billion in a decade, if investigators will try to answer the questions and whether any officials will ever go to trial.

*******

Makled has said in multiple interviews that he paid military and civilian officials in Venezuela for government favors, including a major warehouse concession at the port of Puerto Cabello, which is also a key conduit for drug shipments by sea.

According to Makled, he handed out about $1 million in payoffs monthly to approximately 40 senior Venezuelan military officials, including generals, colonels and majors.

Makled said in a recent TV interview that he had videos proving Venezuela's ruling elite is deeply involved in cocaine trafficking. He said he would disclose only to U.S. prosecutors the videos and other "conclusive evidence" of drug corruption in Chavez's inner circle.

He was captured late last year on a US warrant, but Colombia's president decided to extradite him to Venezuela rather than the US because he's wanted on murder charges there, whereas in the US it's just the drug trafficking.

Touchingly, Makled seems to think that the Present Administration has an interest in uncovering rank corruption in Venezuela. Had the US really had deep interest in this guy, I think he'd be coming here, but Obama likes to show dictators that he's a guy of consequence by treating them according to his whims.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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16May/110

Evil Vizier Jafar and His Nasty Aflac Duck Parrot Spellbind Ahmadinejad

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came under new pressure Sunday, as an influential cleric charged that he has been “bewitched” by a controversial senior aide and key lawmakers renewed their impeachment threat.

Ahmadinejad is behaving “unnaturally” and needs to be “saved,” Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, a former supporter of the president, told the weekly Shoma magazine.

The cleric said Ahmadinejad’s top adviser, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, has used has hypnotism, spells or charms to take control of Iran’s elected leader. “I am almost certain that he has been bewitched,” Yazdi said.

Still . . . gotta be better than Dick Sargent.

Tangentially related: The Danish Navy rescued 16 Iranian hostages in a firefight with Somali pirates, yesterday. Four Somalis were killed. Last month, the Danes rescued a Pakistani crew.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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15May/114

I’ll Say He Was a Vulgarian!

Cleanup in aisle 4:

A knife-wielding man attacked a [sic] Mills-Westley in a supermarket, eventually cutting off her head and running away with it, government officials in Tenerife said Friday.

The man entered a shopping center in the town of Arona, in the Cristianos area of Tenerife, and stole a knife from the supermarket before attacking the apparent stranger, a central government spokeswoman said.

Shopping center security guards were alerted and chased the man, subduing him until police arrived.

The man, whom national police in Tenerife identified as a Bulgarian, was apparently known in the shopping area, the government spokeswoman said.

Huh. No name on the alleged perp?

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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15May/112

Alanson B. Long, Updated; Isaac’s Storm; Nicholson Baker on Pacifism

My earlier post on Dartmouth students and alums who'd been murdered mentioned at the top A.B. Long, who after his service in the Civil War went to New Orleans to practice law, was appointed District Attorney, and slain in his office in 1871. Joe Malchow of Dartblog cross posted it at my request, since I thought it likely to get more interest from his readers, and one of them, Janet Hix emailed me to let me know of documents related to his first encounters with Louisiana in 1862.

That was the year Farragut took the City, and Long's regiment was one of the first to arrive. His first name was Alanson. He was appointed Provost, with responsibility for maintaining relations between the occupying Army and the citizens. He was among the soldiers who were in some perplexity regarding just how to deal with the slave issue--many were flocking to his position, and the enlisted seemed to think that it was their job to liberate them. But that wasn't really the policy of the Army of the Potomac at the time, and he wanted guidance. On advice of the Provost General, he issued a circular outlining in cursory terms just how the Army was to behave in relation to slaves and their masters.

At any rate, this is how Long became involved in Louisiana matters. I can imagine myself railing at the pusillanimity of the Lincoln Administration over the policies on my blog, had I or any existed at the time.

Rutherford B. Hayes won the presidency for the Republicans after Grant at the price of an end to "Reconstruction," or "carpetbagging" if one was a Democrat. Jim Crow and local vigilantism were part of the price. I mentioned in that post that New Orleans and Galveston became during that time the locations where the Italian Mafia got its start in the US. It would be interesting to know whether this was true also of, say, Brazil and Argentina.

I also read Erik Larsen's Isaac's Storm, yesterday, dealing with the September 8, 1900 hurricane that razed Galveston. It's very good. Not as good as Devil in the White City, perhaps. There's one major loose thread, and there's a bit too much banging on the hubris of turn-of-the-century Americans and their institutions, which it holds accountable for the tragedy of errors that led to such a catastrophic loss of life.

One interesting note regards the territorial jockeying of France, Spain and Great Britain prior to the Spanish Cession of 1819. Spanish naval forces were preparing an assault on Pensacola, then held by the Brits, when a hurricane destroyed and/or dispersed most of the fleet that they'd assembled for the purpose. It seems the Spaniards could never catch a break with the weather, when it came to the Brits. Columbus' fourth and last voyage to the New World, his most fascinating in many respects, also gets a mention.

If there's one message that comes across (between the lines) from the relation of the US to the great European imperial powers at the time, it's that apart from its willingness to suffer for the sake of sovereignty, America's security was coextensive with its ability to place its material resources at the disposal of technological innovation and what would later come to be known as the military-industrial complex. Clara Barton's difficulties in delivering relief supplies in the aftermath of the storm and the criticism from some quarters that she was an ineffectual publicity seeker certainly recalls a lot of blogging I've read over the years.

Mary also brought from work a March issue of Harper's, in which Nicholson Baker trots out a bunch of incoherent arguments about how the hard-core pacifists of the Second World War (in particular) were right about everything. The argument is that prior to Pearl Harbor, most Americans, recalling WWI, were rightly in the pacifist camp, but that the government and newspapers stirred up nationalistic impulses on the strength of that attack to bring the US into the war. Hitler, according to this analysis, stepped up his persecution and liquidation of the Jews in response to the US entering the war, and it's partially our fault that so many of them perished.

Yes, that's really the argument. He's obliged to note that Hitler actually had a couple of his death camps operating at the time of the US's Declaration of War, on what he seems to believe was an experimental basis. Whether the crank-down on the liquidation plans, which had been part of Hitler's mad vision for decades, could have been partly an expression of frustration with the bog-down of Operation Barbarossa, Baker seems never to consider. His assertion is in effect that Hitler was holding European Jewry hostage, and that a negotiated peace could have prevented him going ahead with his plans.

If that were true, then the corollary would be that, if you are an aspiring dictator, it is a very good idea to take control of some ethnic and/or religious minority as an insurance policy. Had there been no No-Fly Zone in Iraq, for example, that gave the Kurds the chance to organize Saddam could have used them as a bargaining chip to ensure that his expansionist ambitions wouldn't be thwarted.

Revisionist historians argue that most Americans at the time believed that Hitler was behind the attack on Pearl Harbor and subsequently declared war on the US, but that that that was not so and that FDR and company ginned up war fever over false allegations (aka, "lied into war"). Set that aside, though, and consider the argument that every time a nation declared war on Hitler's Reich, it strengthened his position with the German people. Must that always be so of every dictatorship? Baker points to the mass incineration of civilians in Cologne and Dresden and the flattening of Monte Cassino in Italy as examples of Allied atrocities, though buzzbombs had been raining down on London from the French coast for a while prior to the US entering the war. It is certainly sad that civilians died. It is certainly a shame that the great cathedrals in Cologne and Dresden were destroyed by Allied bombs, and that Monte Cassino was flattened and that a great painting cycle was lost in Latvia (these are all examples that he provides), but what would those things have meant, anyway, to those who had access to them, had Hitler's design to replace Western civilization with a bizarre syncretic pan-Arianism succeeded? And why does Baker think that Hitler, had he secured his empire, would not have proceeded leisurely to liquidate each and every Jew in it? Would his Parkinson's have prevented it?

I mean, as long as we're supposing.

Ah, well. Perhaps there would have been more ABBAs had we accepted "humiliation with honor." How does one say, "The Reich's Got Talent!" in German?

Ass.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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15May/1111

Public Pensions, Finance, and Unions 15May2011 Deadline Edition

It's deep into publication deadline season for me (working on life reinsurance! Woo! This weekend! Awesome! Not!) so my editorial comments will be at a minimum.

Yeah.

Right.

EUROPE

Greece: their finances suck. Response? You know. The experts do not see this ending well, not just for Greece, but the entire eurozone (I like the restructuring option built into the bonds to begin with - if you were a sucker to trust Greece, or expect a bailout, you get what you deserve.)

UK: public employees to hold a more restrained set of strikes over pension cuts. Guys, doesn't matter if you go the violent route or the civilized route -- you're not getting your goodies. Because there's no one to pay for them.

Ireland: not doing so well, either. What are they going to do? Tax private pensions. A 60-basis point tax on assets. Per annum. "Temporarily". Uh-huh. Pull on the other one, it's got bells. Oh, but some people get better treatment than others. Surprise.

Some reactions to the Ireland plan. Pension professionals not pleased - well, duh, it would kill many private pensions. Leo Kolivakis rounds up more, and is also skeptical of how useful this will be.

The Irish people have been told to shut up and not to whine, because FISCAL ARMAGEDDON would result if they didn't go with the EU-IMF bailout. IMF, huh? Those guys have a good reputation, don't they?

OUR UNDERPAID PUBLIC SERVANTS

California lifeguards, making over 200K.

Illinois assistant superintendent of Education making over 300K, making 60K more than his supposed boss.

High-paid public employees is not just a U.S. thing. What was that about austerity in Ireland again -- evidently not everyone gets hit.

A public hospital CEO given $4M in pension benefits.

SOCIAL SECURITY

A report came out. Social Security is in the red from now on...til something changes. And something will change. The problem is now, not when the lie that is the Trust Fund is depleted.

GENERAL PENSION STUFF

USPS ain't doing so hot - it's not just a pension thing, but hey -- it's a big part of their problem.

Remember the injustice that the Wisconsin public employees were having their God-given rights to collectively bargain yanked away by harsh, unfeeling Republicans? Well, weep for this group of government employees who have never been given this right, and who might get their pensions cut.... federal workers.

Oh, and it's not just undercontributions and overgenerous benefit designs that got us into this mess. There's also pension fund corruption.

Just take a look at this graph... the horizontal axis is only a 11-year period, so why would that slope be so steep? Think about what's going on there.

Oh, all this public pension foo-fa-raw is pure envy on the part of the have-nots. Hmmm. What was that about class war, again? Didn't expect to be in the "have" class, now did we, union agitators?

CALIFORNIA

CHiPs get real and negotiate, bumping retirement age up to the ancient 55 years old. Hey, it's better than their prior eligibility age at 50. (and 3% per year? Holy crap, that's generous at any age.)

San Jose mayor declares fiscal emergency, pensions play large role.

A review of the pension pain precipice in Santa Cruz.

Cutting police and jail services to pay for pensions.

Sacramento County must hand over pension info to media, says court.

UC system benefit perk still paying out when it can least afford it (WARNING: NYT link).... this will play out interestingly.

CONNECTICUT

Step up, ladies and gentleman, and let me introduce you to your next version of Prichard, Alabama. I do not see the pensioners of Hamden, CT, doing well over the next five years. Why, do you ask?

The town’s pension is 25% funded, and the mayor only allocated a $3 million contribution, or around 15% of the $19.85 million recommended by the town’s actuaries, for the upcoming fiscal year. The pension was closed to new enrollees in 2008, but supports 664 retirees and 568 active employees. The fund has only $75 million in assets and $242.3 million in unfunded liabilities. The pension pays out around $20 million each year to current retirees.

Yeaaaaaaaah. That's what we call unsustainable. This is a completely foreseeable disaster. It does not take fancy math to see that the money will run out in short order.

We see this on a relatively small scale - a town with a less than a couple thousand people impacted by the money running out. So what do we do when it's Illinois or New Jersey? Prichard retirees have not gotten bailed out, Hamden employees will not get bailed out, and when it's order of magnitude larger -- it's not going to get bailed out because there's no money of. Tough shit.

ILLINOIS

There's been a lot of politicking by state employees lately in Illinois. I don't think it's going to work -- because the hole is too big. But let's take these things one by one.

Don't break pension promises, say those from the public union side.

A TRS trustee writes a letter and Bill Zettler has some pointed questions to ask those on the teachers union side. (I will pick only a couple):

4. Why are teachers allowed 2 years of sick leave credit when they retire adding enormously to the pension cost? No one in the private sector has that.
....
9. If pensions are reasonable how can a 54 year-old Music teacher retire on a pension of $130,000 after working only 33 years and contributing only $193,000? Since he retired in 2009 he has already received more than he contributed ($225,000). That does not seem reasonable to the 95% of IL workers who are not in the state pension system. The cash value of his pension is 8 times what Social Security would be for the same salary and years worked. Why does any public employee deserve more than 8 times Social Security?

There is a lot more at the link.

A police union leader again reiterates that pension promises must be kept.

From the business side, a call for reality -- and explains measures he had to take to make his private pension plan sustainable.

Overview of proposed pension changes, the main change being that employees would have to contribute a lot more to the pension fund...and the unions claim this to be unconstitutional. Oh, this should be interesting.

Picking low-hanging fruit: cutting a benefit for local pols.

KANSAS

Making the case that Kansas police retirees have a modest pension benefit. I'm going to go all actuary on your ass for a moment:

Our retirees live to an average age of 72 — six years below the national average, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Let's go to the life tables, shall we? Life table for 2006 from the CDC, and historical life expectancy (go to table 22 if it doesn't take you there automatically). Now, these are general population mortality tables, which includes all sorts of sick people, but let's assume it's okay. First thing that's deceptive about his statement: I bet most of the retirees are male. There is a major life expectancy gap between males and females to begin with, which makes for a couple years difference between the general population life expectancy and male life expectancy. Secondly, that 76-ish life expectancy in the general population is 1. from birth and 2. assuming you were born after the 1990s (so it involves guesswork on mortality patterns). Well, were you?

In any case, the life expectancy stats include people who died in infancy and childhood and is not the proper number to compare against for pension plans. You should either use life expectancy from age you enter the plan (say, age 25 or 30), or retirement age (say 50 or 55).

Now, I don't have enough info to do a good comparison of the life/death stats on that pension plan and other pension plans/general population. I don't know what time period that life expectancy was calculated over... but more to the point, it might be irrelevant.

Sir, your retirees might die young, but I bet many of them have spouses/ex-spouses who get joint benefits. What are their ages? What have their death age distributions been like? You can have a policeman die at age 60 and his widow collects full benefits til she's 95. Let's talk relevancies.

Ok, enough actuary talk for this post. And if I screwed up any of the details above, I'm sure one of my fellow actuaries will set me aright.

MICHIGAN

Looks like that pension tax (oh, sorry, "curb on pension tax breaks") passed. Let's see what happens.

NEBRASKA

Not a generic public pension issue, but interesting trivia: criminal's pension protected from being garnished to pay for money he owes sexual assault victim. This is an ex-state patrolman child molester, if one wants to get more specific.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Employees rush to retire. But hey guys, just saying -- being a retiree won't necessarily save you from fiscal pain.

Why are they rushing to retirement? Because of ongoing pension reform discussions.

NEW JERSEY

John Bury notes that New Jersey needs minimum funding rules on its pensions, and supports the passing of PEPTA, a federal bill requiring greater
transparency in public plan reporting.

Of course, even without those requirements, the bond markets are waking up to their risks.

And the various NJ unions are trying to remain relevant and hold onto what they've got in this debate. Good luck with that.

RHODE ISLAND

Pension reform goes out with a whimper... I guess when they run out of money will be the bang. More on the death of reform efforts this year. Pony up, taxpayers.

Looks like investigations into possible disability pension fraud is ongoing, though.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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