POWIP Piece of Work In Progress – Former Abode of Dan Collins

24Apr/114

Easter Pensions, Unions, and DOOOOOOOOOOM 24April2011

Hallelujah! He is Risen!

Guess what's not?

But the good news is that it will not require the Second Coming to fix this mess. Yeah, none of the below is particularly fun, happy, or joy joy joy...but all it will take is a little bit of reality and castor oil and we'll get through this.

Feel good?

Yeah, I thought so.

SOVEREIGN AND MUNICIPAL DEBT

Considering making muni bonds taxable - as Girard Miller of Governing Magazine notes, this proposal is DOA, but Miller tells the munis to consider this...because they're going to need all the financing options they can get.

From Kevin D. Williamson, the four national debts: ranging from the short-term to the long-term. As Williamson notes, it's those medium-term notes where the action is, and those turn over in the 1- to 10-year range, and as interest rates rise in the medium term, that's really going to hit. And can hit hard. Because some of the holders of said notes aren't too happy about the situation.

Governmental accounting -- the kind of tricks the federal government is up to would put private entities in the slammer, according to Deroy Murdock.

More on federal debt from William H. Gross at PIMCO.

Fed claims muni bond defaults unlikely. I don't exactly disagree, but I think that the munis are going to find a tough time of it in rolling over their bonds or issuing new ones. The power to tax isn't infinite, especially when one's population keeps moving away (ask Detroit about that). Here's the Chicago Fed letter on this.

Want to feel better (relatively)? Take a look at how Greece is doing.

And plunging you back into despair: a history of the U.S. debt ceiling.

UNIONS MAKING FRIENDS

Grocery workers' union attacks non-union grocer trying to compete with non-union Wal-Mart.

Girard Miller considers public employee pay.

Indiana unions paid for Indiana Dems to bravely run away from their jobs.

Hey, Boeing, you thought you could site your factory in a different state? Sorry, you're shackled to Puget Sound and to its unions. Until the court cases are resolved, at any rate. More on same from Tom Bevan.

Free Enterprise Nation sends out an email, gets replies from (purportedly) public workers.

Much to our surprise, this seemingly innocuous email has produced an inordinate number of negative and downright nasty email responses to FEN. Many replies claim to come from public sector workers (although we have no way to verify their true identity) who say that the facts stated in our communiqué are overblown, preposterous and/or just plain untrue. Because of those charges, we would like to make our sources available for verification. Ironically, the facts we used all came directly from the government’s own websites.

Florida unions pulling money from banks supporting FL Chamber of Commerce.

Seattle city union blocking free effort to clean city parks. They are probably correct - I bet the company is trying to get the city to outsource further city services to them. I don't see why the taxpayer would care if the trash service is from a full-time city employee or provided by a private service, though. If it's cheaper, it's cheaper.

A similar debate in Costa Mesa as employees are laid off and services outsourced... and a raucous public debate ensues.

SEIU trying to get non-union workers in on their "actions". I guess I can see the theory behind it, but I'm not seeing this as a winner. It's really not going to work when the class war is seen as government workers with job tenure against private sector workers who have no guarantees at all.

GENERAL PUBLIC PENSION ISSUES

How the rate of return affects required pension contributions and assets.

Is 8.5% a reasonable discount rate for what is essentially an annuity? More on why an 8.5% assumption is not exactly prudent in today's world.

Public workers decide to get ahead of massive layoffs (and benefit cuts) by retiring in droves. Hey guys, don't assume that means you'll never get cut. Thing is, just because older, more expensive workers are retiring, doesn't mean it's necessarily cheaper for the government -- now they've got to pay for medical benefits they'd pay for anyway for that person, plus perhaps a replacement worker; and then underfunded pension plans start to liquidate which can end in a death spiral.

Last year we got Pew's Trillion Dollar Gap study. What will the number be this week?

GENERAL RETIREMENT ISSUES

Tom Blumer says retirement expectations need to be managed -- I agree. I tell everybody to expect to work til they die (or total disability) unless they save up for it.

Michelle Malkin on making 70 the new 65. Frankly, 65 wasn't the old 65 -- people on the whole start taking Social Security benefits within the first year of eligibility (when they're 62)...though that has been falling. And they do that because generally they haven't been working for a few years at that point. People may change that behavior, and I think they should, but merely changing the "normal retirement age" on these plans will reduce the overall cost, not necessarily get people to change when they retire.

It's a good start that the UK abolished its mandatory retirement ages, but as we've seen in the U.S., that does only so much.

An interesting method to get people to save more for retirement: make them think of themselves as older (and poor), using virtual aging.

The Economist's case for raising the retirement age to 70.

Hey - it's not just public pensions that are troublesome! Taxpayers may be asked to bail out private pensions, too! Yay!

ALABAMA

DROP benefits -- dropped in Alabama, and for very good reason.

CALIFORNIA

Orange County loses court fight over retroactive boost to deputies' pensions. So what's next? All I have to say is that if the pension debt isn't real, that means the pension promises aren't real, and don't need to be paid. Want to make that legal argument?

I knew this was coming -- one of the parties that will get blamed in the public pensions mess will be actuaries. Or, hopefully, specific actuaries as opposed to the entire profession. There's a reason that item #2 on the Society of Actuaries' list of strategic initiatives for 2011 is looking at the reputational risk from public pensions. A little too late, perhaps, but hey - at least they realize there's a risk there.

The dispute between current services and pensions for past services coming to the fore again and again and again in San Francisco. Jeff Adachi had tried something last year, and it looks like he's trying again... just as others are, as well.

Those generous pension benefits cost a lot? Ooops! Our bad!

FLORIDA

This is an interesting turn to the public pensions debate: a firefighter who has been doing his own investigation into his local pensions was ordered to undergo drug and psychiatric testing.

Florida politician defends the draconian proposal to have state employees contribute 3% of their salaries to their pensions. The bastard!

ILLINOIS

This inspires confidence: pensions to be paid without borrowing for the first time in two years. If you can stand the excitement, here's a 19-minute video of the state treasurer talking about borrowing to pay off the bills and pensions.

But are they really? Seems they're not exactly current on their regular bills.

Meh, forget about constitutionality: let's just pass the damn pension bills and let the courts sort it out. Allrighty then.

Evanston fire chief accused of double-dipping. I assume lots of boomer-age (and younger!!) public workers are double-dipping at this point.

MICHIGAN

Michigan passes a mutual assured destruction bill, where all sorts of contracts, collective bargaining, etc., will be dissolved in the event of Really Bad Fiscal Stuff (TM) occurring. Primarily, Detroit is the target of this. And of course, various parties are not sitting still for this -- time to lawyer up!

Hey, it's a better idea than the pension tax. They definitely don't need something to spur more people to leave. I mean, what exactly is the attraction to stay?

NEW JERSEY

John Bury says that politicians doing nothing may be the best option for NJ pensions.... given what happened when they did meddle with the pensions. Of course, doing nothing doesn't end up with happy results, either.

As per the previous story above, NJ is seeing more retirements as Christie talks cuts. Thing is, here's the progression: first, those not yet hired get whacked (less generous benefits, etc.), then current employees, but if the money is too tight, current retirees also get hit. So sure, retiring will prevent getting hit by certain things, but it doesn't mean you're safe.

NEW YORK

Ex-comptroller Hevesi was sentenced for corruption related to pay-for-play and the NY state pensions... he was sole trustee of the plan. The pension governance set-up hasn't changed, by the way, since he was found out.

As long as this crap goes through one office, through one person, you're going to get cases like this.

TEXAS

Talk about needing a resurrection: Texas pension fund needs 21% return just to get to 80% funded ratio. Or, you know, y'all could PUT MORE MONEY IN.

Disputes over pensions enter the Fort Worth mayoral race.

VIRGINIA

Double-dipping doesn't play well in Virginia... or anywhere else, really.

UK

The hot topic on the other side of the pond is teachers pensions. Teachers say they will quit if told to work longer (or contribute more to their pensions). Fine. See what you can get elsewhere. It's a free choice.

Oh, you won't quit your jobs outright, but will strike? Whatever.

And they show their class (har har) by heckling and jeering the schools minister! Huzzah, guys! Next time, throw your poo! That'll show him!

Let me l'arn y'all some Americanisms that may help you deal with your situation: Tough shit. Suck it up. You ain't got the money of.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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14Apr/113

Public unions, pensions, and finance (OH MY!) 14April2011

Sorry for the hiatus. Who knew that quitting a job could be so much work?

Jumping into it:

PUBLIC UNIONS: MAKING FRIENDS AND INFLUENCING PEOPLE

We've seen the good judgment (and pertinence) of unions from Adam's link below, but let's see what happens when they stick to their knitting. They get ideas like this:

The “potential activities” include:

* Target the businesses of legislators in their home districts.
....
* Make phone calls on Parents’ Day. Call parents to tell them how their child is doing and then talk about the budget cuts and invite them to attend the rallies.
....
* Throw monopoly money in the toilet to show that all our money is going down the drain
....
* One-day boycott of Microsoft and other corporations that are pushing failed education reform efforts.

* Turn fire/earthquake drill into crisis response drill to the budget cuts (involve students and the community)

* Attempt to close a major artery into town/cities
....
* Dye hair red or wear red wigs

* Homeless encampments of students and teachers as they can afford a place to live
....
* Pay for everything with $2 bills to show true impact of teachers

* “Lights Out Day” during the week where educators teach in the dark
....
* Work with organization like Ben & Jerry to have them create a labor-union flavored ice cream that can be sold at the rallies and in stores

More great ideas at the link (I pulled out the ones I thought particularly stupid. Yes, call up parents directly after talking about how their particular kid is doing in class and ask them to come to pro-union rallies.... nobody will think there's some implied threat there, will they?)

The biggest issues with the public unions now - in terms of their PR stupidity:
1. You're pissing people off for a variety of reasons (the stupid tactics are part of the reason. Ice cream flavor? Oh, come on.)
2. The people you're pissing off pay your salaries and benefits, dumbasses
3. Part of the "pissing people off" is asking for more money from these pissed-off people. And it's frickin tax time. I am putting off writing some very big checks til tomorrow, and I know that does not put me in a good mood.
4. But there are things more important than money. What super-pisses people off? Targeting their kids.

You may think fear and intimidation works, but Americans don't do fear well. They do do ass-kicking well. Even in California. You are asking for a political beat-down if you guys go after the kids like that. Well, as long as we have the secret ballot. And can keep the fraud down.

Shock: looks like those Wisconsin teachers were doing an illegal sick-out.

FEDERAL

The coming bailout of the U.S. postal service.

Sherrod Brown proposes not letting legislators be eligible for pension benefits til Social Security retirement age. He wants to use it as a cudgel to convince Congress not to raise the SocSec retirement age, but I see it as a first step toward getting rid of politicians' pensions... go for it!

CALIFORNIA

For now, the Orange County sheriff deputies get to hang onto their pension boosts. Enjoy the legal victories while you can. The law can't keep the taxpayers from moving away, and it can't keep the money from running out.

So while a smartass judge noted: “Imprudence, however, is not unconstitutional.” Let me note that a state constitution can't will money into being. So enjoy the cashflow while it exists, guys.

Pension reform proposed in San Francisco. There are competing proposals... maybe one will get through. Of course, the public employee unions are not enjoying a taste of reality, and have fought (successfully) against prior reform attempts. Good luck!

An attempt to say that California's budget woes are not caused by the pensions. Not in the short term, at any rate.

San Diego councilman notes that the pension costs keep going up. Huh. Wonder why that is.

Tit-for-tat: can't have investment managers working for the state who are trying to make public pensions more sane, doncha know. Hey, let's rope in the Koch Brothers somehow!

When the economy was going kerflooey, some California municipalities and counties wasted no time in sweetening pensions. Great timing, guys!

Newport Beach considers firing workers in response to rising pension costs. Costa Mesa has already started sending out the pink slips. Paying for current services or past services - that's the tug-of-war now.

News alert: making public employees contribute to their pensions is cutting their pay! Hey, lady -- increasing tax rates on everyone else to cover pension shortfalls is cutting those people's pay! Ain't it funny how math works?

ILLINOIS

Julie Schmidt and Bill Zettler at Big Government rebut NPR and the Weekly Standard over Illinois pensions. A collection of Bill's articles on pension issues can be found here.

I'm shocked, shocked: Some elected officials in Illinois are really gaming the pension system.

MICHIGAN

They are still debating about taxing pensions. I understand the appeal of the idea, but there's not much keeping retirees in Michigan to begin with (other than said retirees can't sell their houses). Florida and Texas (and Tennessee and Nevada and...) would be beneficiaries to this proposal. I can see Hawaii getting away with it, because at least it's pretty there (but it looks like it won't happen there, either).

Detroit mayor trying to deal with a very bad budget situation. Shows the result of what happens when a local economy craters, and the tax base moves away. Seems the mayor has come to grips with reality, even if the city employees have not.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Continuing debate on pension reforms. I've been seeing a lot of stories like this, from a town level, to county, to state.... and we'll be seeing this on a federal level with Social Security. But that's for a different post.

NEW JERSEY

Come on, Christie, do you really think you can shame a Democrat from enriching herself from the public till? Of course, one of the reasons he's doing this is one of his own buddies got caught double-dipping.

NEW YORK

Gov. Cuomo says he'll veto pension fatteners...but these union-bribing bills will probably never make it to his desk in the first place. I find it interesting that he felt the need to explicitly promise vetos given that he probably wouldn't have to do it even if he hadn't said anything.

Interesting how Cuomo doesn't get beat up in the press for his anti-union talk the way Christie does. I wonder why that may be....

Public Union kiss-up John Liu (NYC Comptroller, and probable mayoral candidate) claims that NYC pension shortfalls mainly due to poor investment experience. I'll have Monty from AoS explain the situation:

New York City officials: "Apparently, our wildly optimistic rate-of-return calculations are to blame for our pension shortfalls. Not our overly-generous retirement benefit packages!"
Monty: "Well, yeah, but aren't you having to assume these ridiculous rates of return because of these generous benefits you've promised?"
New York City officials: "Shut up-a you face, you!"

And as I've said before in retort to Dean Baker and his ilk: you can keep trying to shift around the blame, but now it's come to the point where we "ain't got the money of" (as my family says). When you don't got the money of, it ends up not mattering how you got that way when you're trying to figure out how to deal with cashflow issues going forward. If the benefits are unaffordable, they will not be continued.

Blame the Wall Street fatcats (mmm, reminds me, I'm gonna have a nice lunch on Stone St. today), but the fatcats don't have enough money to plug your public finance hole.

Oh, wait - I've been inspired!

There's a hole in the budget, dear 'liza, dear 'liza
There's a hole in the budget, dear 'liza, a hole

Tax the rich, tax the rich, dear Henry, dear Henry
Tax the rich, tax the rich, dear Henry, the rich

But they ain't got 'nuff money, dear 'liza, dear 'liza
They ain't got 'nuff money, dear 'liza, now what?

Tax everybody, everybody, dear Henry, dear Henry
Tax everybody, everybody, dear Henry, everyone

But they ain't got 'nuff either, dear 'liza, dear 'liza
there ain't 'nuff money for our goodies, dear 'liza, we're screwed

Maybe 'liza will realize that the goodies ain't gonna be coming. And by "'liza", I mean the Boomers. You guys aren't getting the Medicare coverage your parents got. Suck it. You should've had more kids. And bypassed the whole hippie thing.

Okay, we return from our musical interlude to move on to the next state.

RHODE ISLAND

Town of Warwick starts a pension debate. Union members show up in matching Tshirts. The oh-so-tough reform proposal?

His plan would impose a minimum retirement age on city employees. Police and firefighters would have to be at least 50 years old to retire, and municipal workers at least 59. Currently, city employees can retire at any age as long as they have the requisite number of years of service.

Avedisian’s proposal would also increase the minimum years of service needed for retirement from 20 to 25 for police and firefighters. Municipal employees would need 25 years of service.
....
Avedisian’s proposal would affect only employees hired after July 1, 2012.

I can see why the union would feel threatened. This sounds too reasonable! Heck, the taxpayers may start expecting town employees to wait til they're 65 to retire! The horror!

After adjusting the pension valuation assumptions for a bit more reality, Rhode Island's pension now looks like one of the worst in the country for fundedness. But let's be fair here: they reduced the discount rate from 8.35% to 7.5%, which had to have had a huge impact on the valuation... and we saw recently that Calpers didn't budge from its own discount rate of 7.75%. Many have rates of 8% and higher, and will not change that, because it does make the plan look really really bad. They also changed other assumptions that also made the pension look more expensive.

It's difficult to compare public pensions against each other, not just because you have different benefit designs, but some key assumptions, which really shouldn't differ all that much between plans (such as discount rate), are all over the board across the country. It makes it difficult to say who really has the funding problem.

So, buck up, Rhode Island! Sure, your pension plan is woefully underfunded, but you're probably not really the worst! It's just those other guys have their thumbs on the scale!

More news coverage on the Rhode Island pension funding suckitude from the AP and Bloomberg.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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3Apr/114

No Foolin’ Public Pension and Finance Roundup 3April2011

The old story -- I been busy.

And since I announced my resignation at my current job on Wednesday.... well, I don't know how much longer I'll be around here. We'll see. [I start a new job April 18]

But while I'm here, let me round up some morsels of DOOOOOOOOOM!

GENERAL

Mine workers rally for public employees. Aw, so touching when those who risk black lung walk for the cubicle warriors. Guys, once you realize that public employee unions are a whole different beast from private unions (i.e., with public unions, the "bosses" are bought & paid for by the unions, and it's other people's money they're bargaining over), you might be a little less about the solidarity.

An econ prof from California going over various reasons that public pensions are sucking right now. Oh, Prof. Rasmus. Hung up on the blame. Guess what, hoss? Doesn't matter who or what caused it. Not going forward. You might think it helps with the PR problem to blame Wall Street fat cats, but when you're proposing to take money out of taxpayer hides, it's just not going to fly. You can say "Soak the rich", but generic taxpayers know there aren't enough rich to be soaked...and even if there were, they wouldn't sit still for it.

For a smart guy, Prof. Rasmus, you sure don't know PR. I recommend reading Influence by Cialdini... might make your stuff more effective. [Why do I give advice to people I don't agree with? Because I know they won't listen to me.... or even read me in the first place. But I do recommend that book - lots of fascinating stuff in there.]

If "soak the rich" isn't going to work, how about hedge fund returns? Nope.

On the other side, Arnold Brock makes the easy-to-predict statement that gold-plated public employee benefits are soon to die in the U.S. Thanks for the insight, Sherlock!

A view of the U.S. pensions crisis from across the pond.

I'll believe it when I see it: GASB to ask for better public pensions reporting.

John Bury goes to the Enrolled Actuaries meeting - and here's what he has to say: part 1: too much government, part 2: NJ is special, part 3: expecting more Prichards.

Frank Keegan covers the EA meeting, too. Actuaries get a taste of what real politics is like.

3 reasons why munis are still safe? In the short term, sure. That power to tax isn't unlimited, dumbass. And "historically, defaults are rare" is just as meaningful as "historically, you don't have the entire world financial system melting over total financial fantasies"... yeah, 2008 would like to talk with you.

CALIFORNIA

This bodes well: Contra Costa employees retiring at twice the rate of average levels. True, they're not having to pay the older workers (who tend to be the higher salary workers workers)... but now they're getting paid to do no work at all. And they were promised to be paid for their past work already. It might have been nice to have a few more years to accumulate assets to pay them for their pensions. Who knows, maybe the new retirees will take up dangerous hobbies.

Shocker: California GOP makes an issue of public pensions.

There might be a reason that ploy is getting play -- there are some very real price tags hitting California municipalities. Now. For example, Lompoc finds pensions hitting its budget. And Kern County looks at its options. As does Riverside County.

Police and firefighter unions in California seem to have recognized reality.

Why are these pension proposals always dueling? Why can't they be civilized and bicker over tea or something? [That one relates to San Diego]

Barebones run down of Gov. Brown's pension proposals:

1. Eliminate Purchase of Airtime. ....

2. Prohibit Pension [contribution] Holidays.
....
3. Prohibit Employers from Making Employee Pension Contributions.
....
4. Prohibit Retroactive Pension Increases.
....
5. Prohibit Pension Spiking: Three Year Final Compensation.
....
6. Prohibit Pension Spiking: Define Compensation as Only Regular, Non-recurring Pay.
....

7. Felony Convictions. Prohibits payment of pension benefits to those who commits a felony related to their employment.

Sounds good to me going forward. But what does it do about the past screwups? Another on the same. What would the impact be on current fundedness shortfall? Not much. It would have had more impact if it had been passed 20 years ago....

GOP happy with that first look from Brown, but want more more more!

Heck, let's throw in a pic: [doesn't matter if it gets cut off - the important stuff is to the left]

For all its pension problems, San Diego praised for its transparency as a muni issuer.

Oh, by the way, the teachers pension fund is about $56B short. No worries. I'm sure Hollywood has about that much loose in its collective couch cushions, right?

FLORIDA

Pensions a hot issue in Coral Gables for upcoming elections (April 12).

Florida Senate committee approves increased public employee contributions to their pensions. Still, there are some differences in the Florida GOP over how to handle the pensions issue.

GEORGIA

Local governments in Georgia feeling the weight of public pensions.

ILLINOIS

Back to that proposal from Cullerton (that I had gotten corrected about): a comparison of how the Chicago teachers pensions are funded compared to the rest of the state's teachers.

Chicago pays truckers to do nothing. This sweet deal has been around for almost 30 years.

KANSAS

Kansas House passes a bill for a defined contribution pension plan for state employees. Definitely for new hires, but also sounds like they've got some "incentives" built in to nudge current employees into the plan. Sounds iffy that the Senate would pass. A nothing followup on how people want stuff resolved.

MARYLAND

The public employee unions in Maryland expect a big [short-term] win. More from the teachers union on pension reform.

But wait -- they shouldn't have jumped the gun on that. Looks like the negotiations aren't going too well.... anybody here want to bet on the next NFL season, btw?

NEW JERSEY

Gov. Christie proposes pension reforms. Not really a way to get headlines now, gov. Everybody's doing it =now=.

Oh, delicious. Politician railing against double-dipping is doing it himself. (Did I mention it was a Democrat? Did I have to?) Perth Amboy citizen has some more ideas about preventing double-dipping.

But rest assured, even if his idea is not implemented, only a select few can exploit the loophole that Mr. DiVincenzo is using. Doesn't that make you feel better? That such a clever man is a politician?

NEW YORK

NYC Comptroller talks about transparency through posting the asset-side info of the public pension funds online. Okay, would you like to post the liability side as well? Just so everybody can get a full picture.

A few NY municipalities talk about the strain of their pension costs.

NORTH DAKOTA

Legislative approval for increases on both employee and employer side for pension contributions. But do not approve of the addition of people with financial expertise to the pension investment board.

OHIO

A county politician calls for investigation into pension contribution amounts - they are getting a mite big, eh?

OKLAHOMA

Retirement age for new hires increased. Yay. That may reduce costs 30 years from now.

PENNSYLVANIA

Pittsburgh pension likely to be taken over by state, after all its shenanigans to avoid such an event. Still wonder what that last-minute correction/error was about at the end of 2010.

RHODE ISLAND

Nothing to see, folks, don't look at the corpse, move along: Rhode Island pension trouble nothing new.

For something that's nothing new, it's getting pricey for such a small state. Here's a bit of wisdom from a union leader:

Added Local 2882 President Cathy Paquette: “The answer to the pension problem … is, if you hire more state workers ...You would get more people paying into the pension system, and you won’t have any unfunded liability.”

Just bask in that wisdom. Aaaaaaaah. Mmmmmmm.

In general, the cities aren't enthused about the governor's plans.

“It’s not going to be a carrot and stick. … It’s going to be a baseball bat, but not a baseball bat to the cities and towns, but to the taxpayers,” he said.

Talk about a contrarian: teachers need to be liberated from tradition pension plans. The idea is that DB pensions aren't portable, and are a really bad deal if you move after 5-10 years on a job, which is not that unusual for someone of my generation (and I'm moving on after only a little more than a year in my current one....)

TEXAS

Mayor of Houston looking for savings by reducing pension contributions. The choice may come down to current jobs versus future benefits.

A look at double-dippers in Texas and elsewhere.

VIRGINIA

Governor sends back budget, seeking higher contributions to pension plan and pension reforms.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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27Mar/114

Easy Breezy Sunday Public Pensions and Finance 27Mar2011

Hey, might as well clear out some more stories while I've got a breather!

GENERAL ISSUES

Dean Baker is breaking out his calculator again!!!!! Watch out!

"Eighty-eight of the 126 largest public pension plans assume a rate of return exceeding 8 percent a year, according to the Wall Street Journal. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 achieved a compound average annual growth rate of 5.69 percent over the past 20 years."
Okay, get your calculators out boys and girls. If I look up the value of the S&P 500 for March 1991 I get 375.22. The S&P closed yesterday at 1313.8. This gives a compounded annual rate of return of 6.46 percent.

Okay, Dean, I'm going to waste a little time and see if the WaPo was as far off as you say. (It was, by the way -- then I went to look back to see when was the last date that the 20-year annualized return was close to what WaPo said, and it was July 2010). I'm having a hard time getting total return data, though, so I can't check what he has to say about dividends. I see someone had put something up on wikipedia on total returns, but I don't see where they got their dividend info from.

States pass the budget pain down to the municipalities. Duh. Municipalities can go bankrupt, and states cannot. So that's one reason to do this particular money play. But it's good to cut off the cities that can't support themselves... because the people have moved away. Sometimes it's time for a city to die, and propping it up means driving people in general away from the state.

ARIZONA

Arizona jumps on the pension reform bandwagon, targeting the usual suspects: double-dipping, DROPs, low retirement ages.

CALIFORNIA

Stuff is going on in Los Angeles. The mayor cuts a deal with the unions on pensions. More on the deal; healthcare coverage is also involved.

FLORIDA

Taking a cue from Wisconsin, perhaps, Florida House passes bill to ban automatic deduction of union dues from state employee paychecks. That hurts a lot more than collective bargaining bans. Cut off the money, and how can the unions buy their politicians?

Some lawyers are "setting the record straight" on public pensions. It starts:

Are State and Local Government Pension Plans About to Run Out of Money? No, in fact, according to the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, the combined value of public pensions was $2.73 Trillion as of 3rd quarter of 2010, the highest level in two years. This figure represents an increase of more than half a Trillion dollars since a low of $2.17 Trillion at the end of 1st quarter of 2009, and marks the fourth consecutive year-over-year quarterly increase.

MMmmmm, a little irrelevant. Nobody is saying they're immediately going to run out of money. Yet. They're saying that in the relatively short term (and in pensions, under 20 years is short term - it's shorter than the amortization period for making up losses many times) money will run out.

And there's some other really deceptive stuff in there as well. Why exactly would a DB plan be cheaper than a DC plan, hmmm?

But Why Should Public Employees Have the Most Expensive Type of Retirement Plan? They shouldn't, and they don't. In fact, when one considers the cost of achieving a specific retirement benefit goal under both a defined benefit plan -- which is made available to about 84 percent of all state and local government employees -- and the other common form of retirement plan, a defined contribution plan such as a 401(k), recent analysis has found that a DB plan costs about half as much as the DC plan. Specifically, it was determined that delivering the same retirement income to a group of workers is 46 percent cheaper using a DB plan than a DC plan.

As an actuary, I would like to know the drivers there. Is it the asset management fees? Is it the savings that come from people dying early? People not vesting?

Cough up links to that "recent analysis", guys, because I'm not buying this from a purely financial economics point of view.

Hmm. Who are their clients?

CITY OF BAL HARBOUR:
Bal Harbour Village Police Officers' Pension Plan and Trust
CITY OF BOCA RATON:
Boca Raton General Employees' Pension Fund
CITY OF CORAL SPRINGS:
City of Coral Springs Police Officers' Retirement Plan
CITY OF DELRAY BEACH:
City of Delray Beach Police & Firefighters Retirement System
CITY OF FORT LAUDERDALE:
City of Fort Lauderdale Police and Firefighters' Retirement System
CITY OF GAINESVILLE:
City of Gainesville Consolidated Police Officers and Firefighters Retirement Fund
CITY OF HIALEAH:
City of Hialeah Employees' Retirement System
CITY OF HIALEAH GARDENS:
Hialeah Gardens Police Officers Pension Trust Fund
CITY OF HOLLYWOOD:
Hollywood Firefighters' Pension Fund
Hollywood Police Pension Fund
CITY OF HOMESTEAD:
Homestead Retirement Income Plan for Firemen
Homestead Municipal Police Officers' Retirement Trust Fund
Elected Officials Retirement Plan
New Elected Officials and Senior Management Retirement System
VILLAGE OF KEY BISCAYNE:
Key Biscayne Police Officers' and Firefighters' Retirement Plan
CITY OF MARATHON:
City of Marathon Firefighters' Pension Plan and Trust Fund
CITY OF MIAMI:
Miami Firemen's Relief and Pension Fund
City of Miami Fire Fighters' and Police Officers' Retirement Trust
CITY OF MIAMI BEACH:
City Pension Fund for Firefighters and Police Officers in the City of Miami Beach (Consolidated)
Miami Beach Policemen's Relief and Pension Fund
Retirement System for General Employees of the City of Miami Beach (Consolidated)
VILLAGE OF MIAMI SHORES:
Miami Shores Pension Fund
Miami Shores Police Officers' Retirement System
CITY OF MIAMI SPRINGS:
City of Miami Springs General Employee's Retirement System
City of Miami Springs Police and Firefighters Retirement System
CITY OF NORTH MIAMI:
North Miami Employees' Retirement System Clair T. Singerman Pension Fund
North Miami Employees' Retirement System
North Miami Special Police Officers Fund
CITY OF PALM BAY:
Palm Bay Police & Firefighters Retirement Pension Plan
CITY OF PARKLAND:
City of Parkland Police Officers' Retirement Plan
CITY OF PEMBROKE PINES:
Pembroke Pines Pension Fund for Firefighters and Police Officers
CITY OF SATELLITE BEACH
General Employees' Retirement System
Police Officers' and Firefighters' Retirement System
CITY OF STUART:
City of Stuart General Employees' Pension Board
City of Stuart Firefighters' Pension Board
City of Stuart Police Officers' Pension Board

Oh, I'm sure that's a coincidence.

GEORGIA

Hey, that pot of money was just sitting there, asking for it.

ILLINOIS

Come on, man, we just need one more hit. Just one little more....

Is it any wonder individuals are trying the same ploy? Doesn't work as well for individuals, though. Hmmm.

The old, wise advice is to save early, often, etc. applies to both individuals and states. Sad that it's about as likely to be followed in both cases. The results.... ugly in both cases when not followed.

Anyway, you keep borrowing, who is going to pay the creditors eventually? The way things are going, Caterpillar ain't going to stand for it. Ex-legislators aren't hanging around to see what happens when the debt comes due.

Bill Zettler compares Wisconsin against Illinois pension plans for school administrators. Biggest driver in difference just looks like base salary, though you will see the more indirect items such as retirement age have a huge impact.

Yesterday I mentioned the big hole in the teachers pension plan. I want to point out they made a showing in a post back in September 2010, where I mentioned they looked like they could be entering a death spiral, where they were having to liquidate assets too fast.

KANSAS

Kansas Senate debated pension reforms. Choices: Pay more now or get less later. Here's another choice - both could occur.

LOUISIANA

A financial adviser takes a look at the state of Louisiana pensions. Yeah, employees are likely going to have to contribute more. It's not explicitly stated, but Louisiana employees might not be covered by Social Security (and it needs to be remembered in all these public pensions stories that government employees are sometimes not in SocSec- this has both pluses and minuses on both sides).

If you want to see a Powerpoint presentation on the SocSec/Medicare issue re: LA workers, here ya go.

MAINE

You see, the reason the governor's proposed pension reform can't touch his own pension because, man, he's not allowed to change his total compensation package! What a bummer.

MICHIGAN

In addition to the pension tax thing, the governor is looking at ethics rules for pension boards.

MINNESOTA

Lawsuit from retirees regarding cuts to cost-of-living-adjustments on pensions. Hmmm, think I saw something about that in this post somewhere....current retirees are definitely not safe from cuts, either. The easiest to hit first were new hires, but then current employees are getting hit and now current retirees. No one is safe -- taxpayers will be hit, too.

NEW JERSEY

Rendell kisses Chris Christie's ass for some reason. I'm with John Bury in that not making pension fund contributions is really not a good move for pension plan survival, even though Christie is supposedly using it as leverage to negotiate on pension reform. I kind of get that, but the problem is that the pols don't see the urgency of the contributions.... it's not real pain to them - where's the real leverage?

This is not the kind of leverage I mean.

NEW YORK

City versus State. This worked out well in education in the past, so perhaps Bloomberg may actually get something substantive done here (as opposed to taking away my transfats and salt... come on, eyes on the prize, Bloomie.)

PENNSYLVANIA

A look back at a 2001-pensions boost that is causing a great deal of trouble now.

I have no idea what is going on in Pittsburgh. I'm not sure they do, either - or rather, what went on Dec 31, 2010. I tried to get info on what the last-minute calculation error was (even off the record... I'm big on human error stuff, operational risk, etc. ... just wanted to know!) - never found out.

RHODE ISLAND

Public unions argue their pensions are modest, while the state treasurer warns of plan problems.

You know what? The individual lattes I bought from Starbucks weren't that expensive, if you think about it, as a daily treat. Neither were my individual copies of the Wall Street Journal. Or any number of little things I had to brutally cut a couple years ago to get finances back in order. I don't think anybody is saying to totally zero pensions of current employees and retirees, but there will be various cuts, no matter how modest the current benefits look.

The state gives up trying to yank the pensions of 2 specific crooked ex-employees.

WASHINGTON

Some states aren't waiting to hit the already-retired: Washington looking at altering cost-of-living adjustments to pension payments. Again, constitutionality/legality is brought up. But, of course, both laws and constitutions can get changed.

UK

Public employees warned to get a bit of reality before protesting... to think about how "fair" their pensions look to those paying for them.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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26Mar/110

Weekend Public Pensions and Public Finance Roundup 26March2011

It has been quite the week for me. So we've got a bit of backup on the pensions stories.

And like the family members that have been puking around here (yes, that's part of the "quite a week"), it's time to puke up these stories!

SOCIAL SECURITY

Possible Dem crack-up over whether entitlements need to be addressed in the short term? This should be interesting.

Charles Blahous notes that Reid's attitude of waiting for catastrophe means an almost-sure destruction of Social Security as it is currently understood.

Which I expect is going to happen anyway due to demographic reasons, but hey.

Speaking of being blind to demographic issues, someone at Daily Kos whining about Mark Warner being okay with raising the Social Security normal retirement age.

GENERAL PUBLIC PENSIONS AND UNIONS

You know who get pretty sweet pensions? Congresscritters. Must be nice to be able to vote for your own raises and retirement benefits. It's not even your money! And you can even enjoy it after the jerks throw you out of office! Whee!

Coverage of the same from leftie site firedoglake -- and you know what? They're right.

Congress shouldn't get pensions at all.

That make you happy, FDL?

The Great Recession exposed the true cost of public employee benefits.

Wikipension is a wiki on public pensions run by NASRA. So, you know, caveat lector.

John Bury asks if those who are pointing out the unfundedness and unsustainability of public pensions are really attacking public employees, or if the people who are puffing on pipe dreams that things are okay are the ones undermining the stability of these pensions (oooh, NASRA is on his list). Hmmm. Related: what's 15% of $0?

For the nth time, looking at the impact of the discount rate on the valuation of public pension liabilities. And the WSJ about the tension between the actuaries who say "Hey, guys, you might need to lower that rate" and the people who would rather not have to put up more money for the promises they're making.

Meredith Whitney walked back her prediction of mass muni bond defaults, and Charles Gasparino gets his panties into a bunch. More on munis.

CALIFORNIA

Basic Q&A on Calstrs, the teachers pension plan in California.

Reaction to the Calpers asset-side corruption continues with proposed gifting rules.

Want a good horror story? How about a San Fran retirement benefit study? Sorry if you have trouble sleeping after that.

Reminder: Calpers decided it didn't need to change anything about its asset return assumption. More on same, also noting that Calstrs is using the same assumption... which it had shaved down from 8%.

Someone in California is on board with my idea of no pensions for pols. Oh, that "someone" is an Assemblyman? Awesome.

Other GOP pension reform proposals in California (with notes on where Gov. Jerry Brown disagrees/agrees....) And more on the GOP filing.

California municipalities don't have a fun time ahead of them, pension cost-wise. Of course, one easy way to deal with it (some of it) is just firing people.

Trying to use pension issues to political gain, for both Dems and Repubs.

Political low-hanging fruit: capping pension benefits. Other low-hanging fruit -- cutting pensions of felons.

The Progressive point of view on California pensions -- not surprising at all.

San Diego talks on pensions not going too well... actually, not going at all.

COLORADO

Denver City Councilmembers think it's a great time for a raise!

FLORIDA

Raising retirement ages for Florida employees. And for Florida employees to contribute more to their pensions.

Part of the pensions battle is the ginning up of class warfare... but not bankers v the "little guy" - but who the big $$ pensioners are. Here's a slice looking at 4 particular people in Manatee County. More on those 6-figure pensions.

The theme of high valuation rates comes up again and again. This one specific for Florida. Thing is, even with these high assumptions, many funds are still in deep trouble.

ILLINOIS

Understatement of the year: Illinois pension crisis eludes easy solutions. Easy to explain -- they've already tried all the easy solutions. They've come up dry. Actually paying for what benefits cost when you bestow them upon employees never seems to have occurred to anybody.

Cook County board president says public employees are going to have to share in financial sacrifices. Good luck with that.

A collection of links to arguments as to whether the pension benefits of current employees can be altered under the current Illinois constitution.

State teachers fund doing really, really poorly. That's one to watch - it's going to get really ugly.

MARYLAND

Maryland workers weren't happy with the governor's proposed pension plan.

Maryland House adjusted governor's proposed plan.

MASSACHUSETTS

People really are stuck on that special $100K pension mark, aren't they?

MICHIGAN

Not a purely pension thing, but it is related. Michigan schools are seeing existence-destroying deficits in front of them. Some population flight (at least some incredible ones from Detroit), as noted in the 2010 Census numbers, may be related.

Here's the deal -- some of the reasonableness of methods of funding and valuing public pensions counts on governments not going out of business... and having a limitless power to tax. That's called into question when you remember that people can leave, in a variety of ways (including the way we all leave -- death. That's why I keep coming back to demographics.)

You can only tax people. A bit difficult to tax the abandoned buildings, when no humans are involved.

But they're trying this pension tax thing. So that will drive away the few people left (who are left only because they can't sell their houses). No, they're not happy about it.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Pension reform to include higher employee contributions in NH.

NEW JERSEY

Back to John Bury on trying to explain the state of NJ pensions.

NEW MEXICO

Legislation to make minimum retirement age for NM employees the scary high level of....55.

OHIO

Cincinnati city council not having much fun wrangling with pension issues.

A good explanation of the deal with having different amortization horizons.

RHODE ISLAND

Trying to yank pensions from crooked officials. Good luck with that, when said crooked pols vote on their own benefits. I prefer my idea of no pensions for pols at all.

Trying to let retired RI employees to return to work. Yeah, double-dipping is so popular elsewhere. I'm sure this will be popular in RI, too.

VIRGINIA

The public employees don't have to be unionized to cause financial difficulties for a state.

CANADA

Crooked pol resigns, keeps his pension. Ain't that the way.

Quebec tries its hand at pension reform.

EUROPE

Noting that one of the PIIGS has its own test of public finances. I doubt this will play out better in Portugal than it has in Greece.

It's already been getting ugly in England.

UK university staff strike over pension reforms.

OECD report on needing to raise retirement ages.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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21Mar/110

Public Pension/Finance Roundup 21Mar2011

Ah, spring. When one's thoughts turn to monumental governmental debts.

Which reminds me, I haven't done my taxes yet.

PUBLIC FINANCE

Truth: there aren't enough rich people to tax to cover our debt.

No, really, we are broke.

We've really got to signal that the feds aren't going to bail out the states.

SOCIAL SECURITY

If it wasn't clear to you already: the Trust Fund is a lie. Just because it's printed on paper doesn't make it real assets.

Social Security? Don't bother Reid with Social Security. He'd rather wait until it has completely gone over a cliff.

Great/horrible news! We're living longer!

GENERAL PENSION ISSUES

Dean Baker still trying to confuse the issue with irrelevant math. Good luck with that, buddy. I liked the little lie about being underpaid. Mmm.

If you were wondering about what the American Academy of Actuaries has been putting out there on this issue, they've got a handy Actuarial E-Guide, along with a media coverage page.

Get ready for the main event! The 2011 Enrolled Actuaries Meeting! No, really, some interesting people will be talking about public pensions:

Yes fans, it’s a grudge match championship final four. Contestants are Frank Todisco, chief actuary of the Government Accountability Office; Andrew Biggs, former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration now with the American Enterprise Institute; Keith Brainard, research director for the National Association of State Retirement Administrators; and Elizabeth McNichol, a senior fellow at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities specializing in state fiscal issues.

So get your tickets for ringside seats!

The low-hanging fruit of altering pensions for new hires has already been plucked. Now we're turning to current employees. Wait until they get to current retirees. That will be a hoot.

States need to contribute to pension funds now, after years of shorting the funds...when times were good. So they were being stingy when the tax revenues were good -- you expect them to contribute now? Ha ha.

From Time magazine: budget battle over cost of public employees.

You know where a good place to start cutting would be? Pour encourager les autres? Congressional pensions.

ALABAMA

Higher contributions to pension means lower take-home pay now. It's called trade-offs, guys. Amazing that you're just learning about them now.

CALIFORNIA

Way back on March 11, Jerry Brown said he was ready to deal with public pensions. Really, he's working on some stuff. Really. Looking at stuff. Monty at Ace of Spades takes a look at the state of California's finances, and I really appreciate this line:

Public-sector actuaries are...how shall I put this?...highly motivated to use the most optimistic numbers for their projections.

I'm not a public-sector actuary, but yes, this is hugely contentious in the actuarial community. Those of us who are not public plan actuaries are concerned that this is going to blow up and make the whole profession look bad. It made the top of the strategic risks list this year at the Society of Actuaries, by the way.

But hey, who is going to be checking out the actuaries when there looks like there had been a web of corruption in the massive Calpers pension system. Here's a subscription-only article on the Calpers employees preparing to bolt under new ethics rules.... yeah, that would look great. Here's the blurb:

Many CalPERS investment staffers are looking for new jobs, upset with both proposed ethics rules that they feel go too far and a perception that that all CalPERS employees are disreputable, board member J.J. Jelincic revealed.

More on the fired Calpers CEO. And more on the alleged corruption.
More on the governance of Calpers.

As noted by Monty, Calpers didn't change their discount rate on liabilities, and Ed Mendel wonders how far the funding rules can stretch.

Calstrs guy writes to avoid drastic changes in the pension system. That's definitely self-interest talking, but he has good points (for example, Social Security). That said, Mr. Ehnes -- you need to be putting up your own, workable proposals, because business as usual will not be an option.

San Francisco pensions worse than city claims says report. Here's the report.

One way to fix pensions: massive layoffs.

More of the blame game.

FLORIDA

Longboat Key pensions ranks as amongst worst in state. These guys should stop worrying about who/what is to blame and be more concerned as to if they're going to get what they were promised. Playing the blame game ain't going to get your pension funded or paid.

Just like California, Florida is a bit optimistic about how high those future returns are going to be. Here's a report showing the difference in results at 6 different return assumptions, ranging from 3% up to 7.75%. Gives you a feel for how wide the range of answers can be, and how sensitive it is to that one, crucial assumption.

ILLINOIS

Should part-time elected officials get pensions? Hell, full-timers should get nothing. The people in Illinois are insane.

A video: of the top 100 pension amounts in Illinois, 94 are of educators (I assume this is mostly professors, though).

Back-and-forth on the constitutionality of altering pensions of current employees, and the bottomline of current services versus past services (i.e. pensions). Some balance will occur, and where current services do not win out... people will move. So ultimately, I don't think past service is going to be a winner in the long run. This is why you need to have your pensions funded. Pay-as-you-go is extremely dangerous for the pensioners.

Teachers fund receives full pension contribution. If you consider borrowing money to make a payment a true contribution.

MAINE

When governor was talking of pension cuts, of course he didn't mean his own pension.

MARYLAND

Maryland employees protest total comp changes.

Maryland pension fund to run out in 13 years?

MICHIGAN

I've got a backlog, so here's an old bit on the governor still pushing for a pension income tax back on March 10. This was not popular amongst some groups.

Recent news? It's still unpopular. Surprise, surprise.

This does not inspire confidence in me. Evidently, pols in Michigan are so incompetent, they are passing a law to have other people take over finances where officials have munged up the money. Yay.

NEW JERSEY

As soon as 2013 for NJ pension bust - as said by Veronique de Rugy, and analyzed by John Bury.

Oh goodie. After the SEC already slapped NJ on the wrist for shenanigans, the IRS is reviewing the pension funds.

VIRGINIA

Considering pension plan changes in Alexandria.

WISCONSIN

A look at Wisconsin's most famous bus driver, and how he managed to goose a $50K base salary into a $160K annual pay.

Taxpayers the winners in Walker's battle.

UK

Lecturers going to strike over pension changes. I don't think anybody is going to much care, other than the lecturers. Oh noes! I can't get to calculus class! Oh wait! There's Khan Academy! And I don't have to pay for it! Screw you, prof!

Policemen in UK worry that raising retirement age will create "Dad's Army of officers".

Henry Tapper worries about those working in the pensions world giving pensions a bad name.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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13Mar/110

The Debt Is Too Damn High, Public Finance News 13Mar2011

Let me expand my view a little larger than public pensions right now. They're not the only ones breaking the bank.

SOCIAL SECURITY

The Social Security Trust Fund is not only a lie, but may be worth less than zero. But that's only if we treat it like it were something other than zero. If we ignore all those slips of paper in a building somewhere in West Virginia (or wherever they're warehousing it now), and =poof=, they're worth zero. In case you're curious, here is what the trust fund has been doing since 1957. Some interesting patterns, ne?

What is the color of the sky in Mr. Lew's world? "Social Security does not contribute to the deficit in the medium term"....okay. Sure. How did you get your job, again? Look, it does not contribute to the deficit only by those projections. Remember those projections that were supposed to say the cashflows wouldn't reverse til 2016? And they reversed starting last year? I think you need to redo your homework, young man.

A look at possible impacts of raising the retirement age.

Former Bush adviser says there's no chance of Social Security privatization in the near future.

Social Security Myths:

Myth: Social Security didn’t create the deficit — and shouldn’t be cut to close it
....
Myth: Social Security benefits are earned; reducing them amounts to confiscation
....
Myth: Social Security is funded until 2037
....
Myth: The trust fund is invested in Treasury bonds, the most secure investments in the world. To suggest that the trust fund wouldn’t pay is blatant fear mongering
....
Myth: Social Security is an easy fix

I agree that there are no easy fixes to Social Security, but there are lots of simple fixes. It's just that many will be politically unpopular. So the complicated, half-assed "fixes" is what we'll likely have in the near term.

Boehner makes noises about considering entitlement reform. More on legislative debate, complete with Mr. Lew's idiotic remarks.

Karl Denninger says we need to stop lying about Medicare and Social Security.

Robert Samuelson pisses people off by calling Social Security middle-class welfare. While I don't agree with his definition of what constitutes welfare, I do believe SocSec will eventually become out-and-out welfare for older folks, as opposed to the blanket program it is today.

PUBLIC UNION PR

Threatened boycotts are always a great way to win friends and influence people. Solidarity, bro! Oh, and maybe you want somebody else as the public face of your union.

Union myths from Tom Sowell

From Ann Coulter, a profile of that working-class hero: the government bus driver pulling down 6 figures.

Rural areas in Wisconsin driving public union resentment in the state?

Why collective bargaining for public employees is a fiscal disaster. I don't think this is the driver, and the next link will show that.

A look at a study comparing the richness of the pension benefits against the collective bargaining power of the public employees. They don't seem to be connected, and that's hardly surprising in the public sector. The public employee power comes electorally, in funding campaigns and getting out the vote -- not in the ability to negotiate particular contracts. If you've bought your politician, what need is there for strikes and official bargaining? They'll get you what you want.

THIS IS WHY WE'RE BROKE

Math is hard. Aren't there rich people we can tax? Wait.... it wouldn't even plug one year's worth of deficit?

You first: President Obama criticizes legislators for not doing something that he's never done-- proposing entitlement reform.

Richard Posner (from last December) does a run-down of our public financing crisis.

At its core, many of the problems stem from demographic issues -- as illustrated by Europe. And a look at what is going to be happening to the generations in the U.S. in their different experiences of expected and actual retirements. I plan to work til I die.

Busting retirement myths. Now, I'm very pro-annuity, but they are correct about issues with fees. And there are reasons for that, though - it's a very thin market. If people valued the benefit more and we had more money going into that market.... we might be able to see some competition. As it is, it's a niche.

The "social insurance" federal programs make up 35 percent of personal income in the U.S. now. For such a cruel society, we sure to spread the wealth around a lot. Look at it from the perspective of the federal budget, and it's 40%. And this ain't the insurance biz, as well you know, Prof. Bainbridge (thus his scare quotes) -- this is just wealth transfer from the young to the old, and in many cases from the poorer to the relatively richer. Huzzah.

And of course, nobody wants to see their goodies cut.

Just for fun, take a look at this list of government departments/bureaus and see all the waste.

What would state bankruptcies accomplish?

PUBLIC PENSIONS

Just show us the numbers:

As for your city, your school districts, your county, your mosquito abatement district: How often does one of the 7,000 local governments in Illinois tell you how much you and other taxpayers fork over just for pensions? Our guess is, never.

That will change if Congress passes an excellent bill that's roiling the world of public finance. U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes of California, with help from several dozen other House and Senate Republicans, would require every government body in every state to regularly disclose to the U.S. Treasury the detailed status of its pension assets and liabilities. Great! These governments finally would show us citizens the numbers.
....
So far, only one congressional Democrat has spoken publicly in favor of Nunes' Public Employee Pension Transparency Act: U.S. Rep. Michael Quigley of Chicago. Why the silence of the Dems? Because unions aren't wild about spotlighting the dire condition of so many government pension systems. Union officials fear, logically, that if taxpayers realize how much pension debt they hold, they will demand lower benefits, later retirements and other economies.

Bill Zetter looks at who is paying what in Illinois pensions, but come on, Bill -- you know all that money is coming from the taxpayers. The issue is whether the employees get their total compensation boosted by taxpayers beyond what was originally expected (when the pension fund does poorly, or when crazy things happen to benefits). Holding total compensation to a particular level would mean that when pension fund contributions increase, yes, the cash-in-hand-right-now would decrease for employees. Okay, I know people aren't all that interested in these semantic games, but it is important: all the money is coming from the taxpayer.

A look at some of the generous terms under which Florida employees can retire.

The State Pension Time Bomb from Veronique de Rugy.

A conflict of interest problem in public pensions: judges could block pension reform.... reform of pensions that also cover themselves. Not sure how that should be handled.

John Bury looks at public pensions spin from government reps.

No, really, everything is fine -- public pension costs have peaked (in the UK). That is unlikely, I think. I'm not so delusional as to think that the 50-year projections I made for TIAA-CREF were going to be able to show that the annuities would do what we wanted ... though I had fun telling them that they wouldn't know if I had made a mistake for 20 years. The difference with a private company is that they won't let these mistakes compound over decades the way a government body can and does.

More on public pensions in Europe. They are looking at having to cut as well. Wisconsin reactions are low-key compared to the angst that has been going over there on this topic. More on UK public pension reform. UK unions are not happy, duh.

Next up for the Evil Party: cutting public pensions to zero, entirely. Or, rather, no longer footing the longevity and investment risk of the employees' retirement savings and income. But the author has it correct: switching new employees to defined contribution plans won't fix the unfunded liabilities that are from current employees and current retirees. But it won't compound the problem, either.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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1Mar/116

SuperDuper Public Pension Roundup! 1Mar2011

I've got a metric shit-ton (that's the technical term. Google it.) of tabs open right now, and they MUST! BE! CLOSED!

So let's kick it.

CALIFORNIA
This story is so bad, it gets top billing:

Two high-ranking officials at the Orange County Employees Retirement System have been placed on paid leave in connection with a $228 million mistake that has resulted in multi-million dollar pension catch-up bills for agencies countywide.

In particular, the Orange County Fire Authority has been handed a catch-up bill of $76 million – the amount of contributions that went uncollected for eight years for “special pay” stipends for paramedics, EMT’s, and others with specialized jobs.

“To get a bill like that was devastating,” said Joe Kerr, president of the 800-member Orange County Professional Firefighters. “How could this oversight have gone on for so many years?”

OCERS has agreed to let the firefighters pay the bill over a 25-year period, at $4.5 million a year, beginning in July, said Lori Zeller, OCFA assistant chief of business services.

Now, I've made substantial errors in my time, but nothing like that. That took some doing. I have a feeling that more than those two will end up gone by the time that mess is cleaned up. If it gets cleaned up. This has been going on since 2003, it seems.

This next one is actually more important, and I will write a separate post on this later....in my copious free time. Ha. This is the Little Hoover Commission reviewing public pensions in California:

But a new report from the Little Hoover Commission in Sacramento makes a more troubling point: Many state and local government employees have been promised pensions that the public couldn't have afforded even had there been no crash.

The commission's analysis of the problem is hotly disputed by union leaders, who contend that the financial woes of pension funds have been overblown. The commission's recommendations are equally controversial: Among other things, it urges state lawmakers to roll back the future benefits that current public employees can accrue, raise the retirement age and require employees to cover more pension costs. Given that state courts have rejected previous attempts to alter the pensions already promised to current workers, the commission's recommendation amounts to a Hail Mary pass. Yet it's one worth throwing.

Here's a link to the full report, and a short overview of the report's contents. Across the pond is a similar study, with more incendiary language -- calling public pensions "Madoff-style pyramids". And yet another report -- most public pension plans are in crisis.

Look. The unions had better think about what they're going to be able to live with, b/c "I've got mine" ain't going to work. They don't got theirs til all the cash is in hand, and they're dead, no longer receiving pension payments. That stuff can be taken away, as a practical matter, at any time.

States cannot run the printing presses. The money can, indeed, run out. Current retirees, forget about current employees, can get dinged in a major way.

Many states and cities are making changes right now to try to make sure the promises might actually have a chance of being achieved. And that may involve a variety of benefit haircuts, amongst other things.

Some people are still in denial about these possibilities. "It's illegal!" they cry. Ask the retirees of Prichard, Alabama if legality pays their pensions. Because they've gotten nothing since 2009.

So quit having the vapors over changing benefits for current employees and thinking there must be some more rich people to tax. It can, and will, get much worse than that.

That's it for my commentary. Now it's time for the link explosion.

Charter amendment in L.A. to roll back public safety benefits.

Showdown brewing over CA state employee pensions.

Employee pensions much higher than advertised.

A rundown of the proposals Brown had made during his gubernatorial campaign.

Tim Cavanaugh from Reason on how public pensions killed California. More on pensions bankrupting California.

Reform sought by Orange County Republicans...including the newly popular "Let's rescind collective bargaining!" Kevin Williamson explains that it's not the collective bargaining that makes for the awful amounts of public employee benefits, but the mere political existence of public employee unions. Back to those O.C. pols: more coverage of their proposals. And yet more coverage.

Considering defined contribution plans for public safety workers in San Diego.

Pension crisis? What pension crisis? Almost 200 California plans raise benefits.

FLORIDA

Revision to Florida pension bill, requiring more employee contributions as part of Governor Scott's push to reform Florida pensions. There have been lots of editorials supporting Scott's proposed changes. Scott compared the Florida situation to Social Security problems.

Evidently, part-timers had been getting pensions from Florida.

Looking at pension reform choices in FL. More considering what needs to be done in Florida.

Analysts say Florida fund is okey-dokey. So...have they fixed that "sole trustee" issue, yet? More on that analysis.

RHODE ISLAND

Rhode Island has highest unfunded pension liability per capita

PBS Newshour coverage of the Rhode Island incipient pension disaster

A tale of Providential double-dipping.

More on Rhode Island's pension squeeze.

MISSISSIPPI

Mississippi puts off increasing pension fund contributions

VIRGINIA

Plan to divert school funds to pension funds not popular

NEW YORK

Reminder that Cuomo said he wants to tackle pensions. He's been pretty quiet lately, hasn't he?

Mayor Bloomberg also proposed pension cuts, noting that the city has no power in negotiating those.

NEW JERSEY

It's the heavyweight champeen Gov. Christie in this corner against flyweight MD Gov. O'Malley, duking it out over pension reform.

Massive head for the exits in NJ... might as well collect benefits before the money runs out.

Christie says NJ pensions will be broke by 2020 without reform. I guess he's been reading John Bury. Even with reforms, the future isn't bright.

D.C.

D.C. pensions need reform, too.

WISCONSIN (v. MINNESOTA)

A comparison of what WI and MI employees pay for their pensions.

More on the Wisconsin employee benefits and collective bargaining.

Wisconsin's pension fund one of the financially healthiest in the country.

OHIO

Burden of pension reforms to be put on employees for Ohio's five pension plans.

Keep an eye on this court case about retiree health benefits....because post-retirement healthcare is considered one of the weakest benefits in most public employee benefits packages, because almost all of that is pay-as-you-go -- and that's most definitely =not= sustainable.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

GOP proposals for NH pension reforms.

Public employees protest pension reforms.

ILLINOIS

Governor claims that Illinois pensions won't need federal bailout. HA HA HA. Wow, he's getting good at that stand-up act.

TEXAS

Teacher pension plan working against spiking- the practicing of goosing the final year salary to get a higher pension payout.

GENERAL ISSUES

And now, in the interest of some balance, something from a Teamsters leader.

And another pro-public employee point-of-view...it's actually reasonable, though. You should read this one.

The problem is that the blame game doesn't get the pensions paid. Progressives try to gin up a class war and find the haves v. have-nots weren't the classes they had in mind.

The best case scenario at this point for many public employees is to end up in the same system as most private workers, and most will get at least some of the benefits originally promised them.

Prichard won't be the last case of a public pension going totally under and the retirees ending up with nothing. So people should make their plans accordingly.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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27Feb/110

Congrats on the new job, Mr. Mayor!

Hey Rahm, I hear tell you've got a new position and all sorts of bright, shiny things in store for you. What, one of your first appointees has had to resign because of ethics questions? Not even one week into your administration? Oh, buck up. Let's look at what else you're dealing with:

The former White House chief of staff, who won his mayoral bid handily Tuesday, takes charge of a city facing an immediate budget shortfall projected at from $500 million to $1 billion and with its long-term pension promises to city workers underfunded by as much as $15 billion — fiscal shortfalls Mr. Emanuel vowed during the campaign to address.

And while nobody expects a showdown with the unions as bitter as the one gripping neighboring Wisconsin, observers see coming painful negotiations with municipal unions similar to those other Democratic-leaning big cities and states have had to engage in recently.

How are you going to pay for this? Property tax hike? No? I don't think forensic audits are really going to do anything, either.

Surely, the state will be able to help. They've just issued a shitload of pension obligation bonds, sold with a spread of about 200 bps over Treasury bonds [i.e., the market thinks they need to be paid extra for this risk - comparable to some junk bonds]...oh wait:

Local school districts could get hit with a multimillion dollar bill under a pension cost-shifting plan being floated by a top state Democrat.

Senate President John Cullerton is proposing that school districts cover the costs of teacher pensions. Those costs -- estimated at about $700 million -- are now covered by the state.

That doesn't sound promising for Mayor Rahm.

Part of the issue is because Gov. Quinn went seeking federal guarantees to back those pension obligation bonds. Nothing doing. Seriously, fehgeddaboutit. But hey, if you like to live life on the edge... go for it! I think the ride down the Illinois debt death spiral should be fun. [vendors: have your bills been paid yet?]

And back to Rahm, I'm guessing that you're going to be doing more stuff like this. Because something's gotta give, and I think we've seen what direction the winds are blowing right now.

MORE: Unions guarded about Rahm win

AND: Maybe Rahm could spare a bit of his pocket change

REMINDER: A hole of 11K per Chicago resident. The numbers ain't pretty.

UPDATE: We've been contacted by the office of the Senate President about his proposal for teachers pensions. I quote from the statement:

Cullerton pointed out that this is already how the Chicago Public School system works. While that pension fund does receive a relatively small state subsidy, the local taxpayers and Chicago teachers cover the overwhelming majority of the pension costs. And Chicago taxpayers also support the downstate and suburban teacher pensions by paying state income and sales taxes.

Basically, Chicago has been on its own re: teachers pensions, more or less, already. So that's part of the debt problem that already exists, and this proposal wouldn't add to it.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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21Feb/118

Public Union PR Problem

Back in January, I posted in reaction to some whining of the bad press the NYC Sanitation workers unions were getting:

So back to the public unions. Don’t like your public image? Realize you have a PR problem. Your =customers= are the public, and they are pissed off. Private companies have to deal with this crap all the time, and even if something is not actually their fault, they do realize they have to do something about the impression that it is. In general, it’s recognized that whining about unfairness is not an effective PR move. It might have helped some of these public policy guys if they actually had a real job at some point, where they had to deal with this sort of situation. They need some diversity in their ranks.

I had a little followup on public union PR a few weeks ago.

So, let's see how the public unions in Wisconsin are taking this advice?

Well that's just..

Oh, not a good idea...

That's "May I", young man.

Guys, that's really not smart...

Okay, not only have you lost all hope at getting moderate buy-in, you're actively turning off other public school teachers.

I, really, just don't get it. Tea Partiers are a lot more media savvy than this. These people have played around with at least one too many giant puppets that they think this may actually help their cause.

I hope there are no PR professionals involved in this, and if there were, they should just give up on their profession and seek something they may excel at, like chief diversity officer (wait, those protests look overwhelmingly white... they can't even get their quotas right). Because the optics are really really bad.

These are the supposed educated and educators... you'd think they might want to consider the point of view of a louse:

O wad some Power the giftie gie us
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae monie a blunder free us
An foolish notion:
What airs in dress an gait wad lea'es us,
An ev'n devotion!

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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